The end of pacifism: Japan has allowed the export of lethal weapons

The Japanese government has made a historic decision to ease the ban on the sale of weapons abroad that had been in force since the end of World War II. But for now, with reservations: supplies, with rare exceptions, are allowed only to countries not involved in armed conflicts. However, it will not be easy for Tokyo to gain a foothold in the global market.: It will have to compete primarily with South Korea, which has become one of the largest arms exporters in recent years. What kind of equipment Japan may be of interest to buyers and what the emergence of a new player will mean for Russia and the world — in the material of Izvestia.

Militarization of Japan

"Currently, no country can ensure peace and security alone, so partners who support each other in areas such as defense technology are needed," Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced.

Back in 1947, two years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan enshrined in its constitution the renunciation of war and the creation of full-fledged armed forces. Then Tokyo tightened these restrictions: in 1967, it refused to supply weapons to communist countries and states under UN sanctions, and ten years later it imposed an almost complete ban on arms exports.

But times are changing. First, in 2014, Japan relaxed the rules for the export of non-lethal equipment: then they allowed the supply of equipment for search and rescue operations, transportation, surveillance, warning and mine clearance.

Now Tokyo has gone even further and lifted restrictions on the export of lethal weapons. All products will be divided into two categories depending on their destructive ability: "non-weapons" and "weapons". In the first case, the sale of equipment is not limited, it includes, for example, radar warning and control systems.

For the second category — missiles, tanks and other equipment with lethal capabilities — the ban has been relaxed. Such products were allowed to be sold to countries that have an agreement with Japan on the protection of classified information in the field of defense technology. This document has been signed with 17 countries, including the USA, Germany and the UK.

Formally, the supply of weapons to countries where fighting is taking place is still prohibited. But there are exceptions: exports are allowed if required by the security interests of Japan or the operations of the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. In fact, this leaves Tokyo with the opportunity to supply weapons even to states involved in conflicts, if the government deems it justified.

The departure from the 80-year-old pacifist policy has already provoked a wave of protests in the country. In early April, about 6,000 people took to the streets of Tokyo. The demonstrators held placards reading "Military force will not bring peace" and "Takaichi, resign," while chanting slogans such as "Against war" and "Let's defend peace."

What's for sale

There is also a change in policy in Japan itself behind the revision of export regulations. Last fall, Sanae Takaichi became the country's premier. Her approach is often compared to the policies of Donald Trump. The prime minister advocates an increase in defense spending and support for the military-industrial complex. And one of the key people in her team was former Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, who took over the post of Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers.

"If we don't innovate ourselves, we won't be able to keep up with global trends," he explained the need to lift restrictions.

At the same time, Japan has never been "unarmed" before. After the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the country created a "reserve police corps," which later became the Self-Defense Forces. And local companies produce almost the entire range of modern weapons, from tanks and missiles to submarines and fighter jets.

The largest market players are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, IHI Corporation and Subaru Corporation.

Among the most famous developments is the Type—10 tank from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The vehicle is armed with a 120 mm smoothbore cannon and can reach speeds of up to 70 km/h. Its main feature is the C4I system, which allows for real—time information exchange with other tanks and infantry.

Japan is also developing long-range missiles and hypersonic weapons. In particular, Type-12 missiles are already in service, capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than a thousand kilometers. They are what analysts call one of the likely Japanese exports after restrictions are eased.

Mogami-class frigates are considered to be another potential candidate for sale. Japan had previously agreed to supply the first three such ships to Australia. The deal is estimated at $6.5 billion. In addition, Japanese submarines of the Taigei and Soryu types are regularly mentioned as possible exports.

According to Reuters, Poland and the Philippines are already exploring the possibility of purchasing Japanese weapons, and one of the first deals may be the transfer of former Japanese warships to Manila.

What the experts say

Despite the lifting of restrictions, it will not be easy for Tokyo to become one of the largest arms exporters. According to Andrey Gubin, associate professor of the Department of International Relations at the FEFU Oriental Institute, the Japanese defense industry faces two problems at once: a relatively small range of products and the inability to produce them in large batches.

According to him, Japan is able to fully provide its own Self-Defense Forces, but it is unlikely to be able to compete with South Korea in terms of volume. Therefore, we can talk about selling licenses, individual technologies, and niche designs.

In addition, Japanese weapons will almost certainly turn out to be one of the most expensive on the market. The high cost of labor, technology, and production makes it less competitive than its South Korean or American counterparts.

— Modern lithium-ion battery-powered submarines, Mogami-type frigates, individual air defense systems, electronics, and possibly some missile technologies look like the most promising areas. Such samples can really find demand in the global market. But aviation equipment is unlikely to become a serious export item. There is very high competition here, which the Japanese will find difficult to withstand due to the high cost of production," Gubin explained to Izvestia.

Thus, in his opinion, Japan will be able to gain a foothold only in certain segments: primarily in high-tech niches and joint projects. This will not lead to a sharp increase in the Japanese budget, nor to a fundamental change in the situation on the global arms market.

— The main significance of the current changes is rather political. Japan is gradually "normalizing" its status and moving further away from the restrictions imposed by the post-war constitution. So far, we are talking only about arms exports, but in the future, the discussion may reach the revision of the ninth article ("article on peace", proclaiming pacifism. — Izvestia), — he suggested.

At the same time, according to Evgeny Minchenko, president of the Minchenko Consulting communications holding, what is happening goes beyond the usual expansion of arms exports. He recalls that Japan is increasingly discussing topics that were considered taboo until recently, including the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons.

— There are certainly reasons for alarm. Japan is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world, especially in the field of robotics, automation and precision engineering. And these are the areas that are becoming key for the military industry today: from unmanned systems to combat robotic systems, which are increasingly becoming mainstream modern weapons," the expert emphasized.

He is convinced that this creates additional risks for Russia, especially given the ongoing territorial disputes between Moscow and Tokyo.

— Russia already needs to prepare for a possible deterioration of the military and political situation in the eastern direction. This is not only about strengthening defense in the Kuril Islands, but also about building a broader system of alliances and partnerships in Asia, not limited to China alone," the analyst believes.