It only gets worse: the United States is talking about a ground operation in Iran

American media reports that the United States has begun preparing for a ground operation against Iran. According to Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth, new American armed forces are arriving in the Middle East, where "they will continue the military operation launched jointly with Israel and it will last as long as it takes to achieve success." Tehran says it is ready for such a development. Izvestia dealt with a potential US land invasion of Iran.

Just in case

In the United States, military exercises of the 82nd Airborne Division of the US army in Louisiana were suddenly interrupted, The Washington Post (WP) reports, citing sources.

The authors of the publication are confident that this is a clear sign of the Pentagon's preparations for a ground operation. This elite division, numbering from 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, is capable of capturing strategically important facilities, including airfields, providing emergency evacuation and protecting diplomatic mission buildings.

So far, there has been no order to deploy the division in the Middle East, but if necessary, the special forces are ready to carry out tasks anywhere in the world within 18 hours of receiving the order.

The publication notes that the Pentagon plans to officially announce the transfer of the 82nd Division helicopter unit to the Middle East region. Relocation is expected before the end of spring.

"We are all preparing for something, just in case," one of the sources explained.

At the same time, on March 4, White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt stated that at the moment Washington is not planning a ground operation in Iran, but "it does not completely exclude such a scenario."

Iran is ready

Meanwhile, the popular news aggregator Faytuks Network, citing its local observer, reports on its page on the social network X that over the past few days at least 9 American MC-130J special purpose aircraft have arrived at the RAF Mildenhall airbase in the UK. Most of them arrived at night with their flight numbers taped up and were not displayed on tracking sites.

Mildenhall Air Force Base serves as a key hub for U.S. special operations forces in Europe. The MC-130J Commando II is believed to be designed for covert infiltration and support of unit operations. They are also capable of refueling helicopters in the air.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that new armed forces are arriving in the Middle East, where they will continue the military operation launched jointly with Israel. He promised that the tandem of the US Armed Forces with the "devastating capabilities" of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would lead to the complete destruction of "Iranian opponents."

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, in turn, said that Tehran is ready for a US ground operation. "The brave sons of Imam Khomeini and Imam Khamenei are waiting for you to shame these malicious American officials with thousands dead and captured. The land of Iran is not a place for hellish dancing," the politician explained.

The protests have come to naught

Reports on a possible US ground operation in Iran appeared against the background of the fact that the air force operation conducted by Washington is not achieving the results that the Americans are striving for. In particular, the blitzkrieg failed, and there was also no regime change — the government did not resign and remained in the country.

In addition, intelligence errors cannot be ruled out. On the first day of the operation, the United States and Israel attacked a school in the city of Minab, located in southern Iran. As a result, more than 160 people died, most of them children.

Against the background of what is happening, social protests inside Iran have come to naught. Anyone who opposes the regime in the country begins to associate with the American regime, which automatically means killing children.

In such circumstances, Americans probably can't help but think about the military operation, suggested Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS.

— But we must understand that in general this is a very complex problem. First of all, no one wants to justify themselves to their own voters for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of coffins. Secondly, the Gulf countries are experiencing a significant problem with missile defense, and the Americans themselves are facing the same problems," the political scientist explained in an interview with Izvestia.

In his opinion, the problem is that initially the wrong doctrines and concepts of warfare were chosen. The expert did not exclude the possibility of conducting an onshore operation in such conditions, but added that if it did begin, it would be very limited and would most likely involve proxy forces.

The specialist added that the British Mildenhall base is located very far from the theater of military operations. The Americans have their own base in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, which is much closer to the site of the military operation, and there is also an aircraft carrier warrant in the Persian Gulf zone, where it would be more logical to deploy personnel.

Three tasks of the operation

They are trying to involve the Kurds in the current conflict, because it is much more effective, said orientalist Krylov, adding that there are three main tasks of a potential land operation.

"The first is the creation of problems and hotbeds of tension in the border areas, the second is the conduct of sabotage, the destruction of some critically important facilities or their capture, and the third is the elimination of political leaders," Krylov explained.

The United States, together with Israel, is dealing with the last two points with the help of missile strikes, he added. The land component can be used either to capture territories that have already been bombed, or to create tension on the border.

— But it is not clear why. In addition, the Iraqi Kurds understand that they are being used, and judging by the statements they make, they are not really ready to die for the Americans," the political scientist suggested.

The expert stressed that even if information is received about the landing of American or Israeli special forces in Iran, this still means the start of an onshore operation. He did not rule out that Israeli and American intelligence officers and, possibly, some kind of saboteurs are very active in the country.

— But it's not very massive, it's more for individual actions and provocations than for a serious ground contingent. And in general, an American airborne division of 4-5 thousand people is reported - this is nothing compared to the Iranian armed forces, numbering about 300 thousand people," the specialist said.

They can repeat it

The previous US military campaign in the Middle East took place in Iraq. At that time, the military contingent of the Americans and their allies numbered 450 thousand people. Unlike Iraq, Iran has a more complex terrain, so hypothetically a larger group would be needed. But in this case, we would be talking about a large-scale military campaign with the capture of major cities, which would require long preparation and huge resources, which is clearly not in the interests of the United States now. Another thing is a small special operation aimed at undermining the situation in Iran.

Konstantin Bogdanov, head of the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Sector at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia that the United States has a potential participation in a ground operation in mind, but this is not their only scenario.

— So far, all this is speculation. Judging by how the Americans have behaved over the past 30-40 years, they still haven't gotten over the Vietnam syndrome and are doing their best to avoid large-scale operations. The 1991 "Desert Storm" was an exception. In 2003, when they launched the Iraqi operation, they relied not on a massive frontal advance, but on rapid breakthroughs, with the destruction of defenses and with knocking out points of resistance inside the country," the expert said.

The specialist stressed that the 82nd Division and the 17th Corps, to which it belongs, have been fighting well since the Vietnam era, but they cannot do much alone. He believes that if the United States relies on another type of operation, it will be more likely to be an amphibious operation.

"These will be targeted attempts by special operations forces, the same airborne divisions of the 82nd and 101st divisions from this corps, to undermine the defense in certain areas, not in front, but in depth and thereby cause political changes," the analyst said.

Bogdanov did not rule out that the United States does not fully represent the stability of the chain of command in Iran, so the operation could lead to serious image losses. However, the situation for Tehran is complicated by the fact that there is practically no air defense system in the country.

— Now no one sees it, it is largely uncovered and suppressed, Israel and the United States carry out hundreds of raids per day. Obviously, Iran did not have time to restore the system after June 2025, and now it has been completely suppressed," the expert explained.

In his opinion, everything will depend on how Iran is ready to resist. The problem is that the military inside the country, including the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is quite fragmented, while the American and Israeli armed forces are much better equipped technologically.

— The Americans will try to strike where it can have a structural effect, for example, in a province inhabited by national minorities. This would not be a full-scale invasion in our understanding. They would try to gain control over peripheral areas and create zones in them that are not controlled by the central government," the expert concluded.

How will Turkey behave?

Vladimir Avatkov, Head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at INION RAS, Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy at MGLU, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that they are desperately trying to involve Turkey in the war in the Middle East. However, Ankara is trying to distance itself from this by consulting either with Russia or with representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance.

— The Turkish authorities understand that the real battle is ahead, and what is happening now is the result of impunity and permissiveness of the United States. Both the American and Israeli authorities, unlike Iran, would like Turkey to enter the war," the Turkologist explained.

The expert added that Ankara would not have pulled it off from an economic point of view. At the same time, Israel called Turkey the second target after Iran, and Washington clearly does not need Turkey pursuing an independent policy. The political scientist also did not rule out that the American and Israeli authorities could use the Kurdish factor to achieve their goals.

— It is still difficult to say whether the Turkish Republic will enter the war. If she does, it's only at the last moment to be on the winning side. In the meantime, Turkey will do its best to maneuver and try to hold on," the expert concluded.