"Fire" on your own: why breaking off relations with Spain is not beneficial for the United States

Iran has driven a wedge into relations between the United States and Spain. American leader Donald Trump called the country a "terrible ally" and threatened to sever trade relations with Madrid. The reason was the refusal of the Spanish authorities to provide the American military with bases for attacks on the Islamic Republic. Tens of billions of dollars worth of trade could now be at risk. At the same time, economic pressure can play against Washington — China is increasingly eyeing the European market and is ready to occupy the vacated space. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Allied discord

"We are going to stop all trade with Spain. We don't want to have anything to do with Spain," US President Donald Trump announced during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House.

The reason for the American leader's dissatisfaction was Madrid's refusal to provide Washington with the Rota and Moron bases for strikes against Iran. The Spanish authorities condemned the operation against Tehran and demanded that the United States withdraw American tanker planes from its territory. After that, about 15 American aircraft were relocated, including to the Ramstein base in Germany.

But the conflict between the two countries is not only related to the war in the Middle East. Trump also recalled a long-standing dispute with Madrid over defense spending: Spain is resisting US demands to increase the military budgets of NATO allies to 5% of GDP.

"I have the right to prevent any business activity related to Spain. The embargo means I can do whatever I want with them," the head of the White House threatened.

Merz's reaction was also noteworthy: not only did he not publicly defend his EU ally, but he also indirectly supported Trump's position.

"We are trying to convince Spain to also increase its contribution to defense to 5%," he said.

According to media reports, in a private conversation with the Republican, Merz nevertheless stood up for Madrid, but publicly chose not to enter into an argument with Trump.

Spain does spend less on defense than many of its NATO allies. In 2025 alone, the country reached the level of 2% of GDP in military spending for the first time, spending about €33 billion, an increase of about 43% per year.

— However, even this indicator has become a serious burden for the economy of a country with a public debt of about 104% of GDP. An increase in spending to 5% would mean an additional €60-70 billion annually, about the same amount as Spain spends on the education system today," Ahmed Yusupov, an economist and partner at the Goldman Agency communications agency, told Izvestia.

At the same time, Madrid has consistently criticized the American administration's policy in the Middle East. Spain became one of the first EU countries to recognize the independence of Palestine, and the Spanish authorities called the goals of American actions against Iran unclear.

"23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East <...> The Iraq war caused a sharp increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a general increase in energy prices," Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez explained his position.

According to him, if the American administration intends to review relations, then it must be done with respect for international law, the autonomy of private companies and the current agreements between the EU and the United States.

Shooting with blanks

At the same time, economic ties between the two countries remain significant. Spain supplies olive oil, auto parts, steel, and chemical products to the United States. Energy resources and industrial raw materials are mainly used in the opposite direction. In 2025, trade between the two countries amounted to about $47 billion, with the United States selling more goods to Madrid than it imported.

— Spain can behave quite confidently in this situation. Not so long ago, for example, a court in the United States abolished the duties imposed by Donald Trump, declaring them illegal. He may introduce some temporary measures, but it doesn't really matter anymore," Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

He said that in this situation, Spain may not be afraid of additional import duties on its goods to the United States, because Trump does not have many instruments of pressure on Madrid.

A real economic gap between the United States and Spain is almost impossible. And not only for political reasons, but also for legal reasons, Akhmed Yusupov agrees. The imposition of an embargo against one EU country would automatically mean conflict with Brussels and a threat to the entire transatlantic trade cooperation.

— The shot may be a blank, but the side effects are quite real. And there is a trend here: the more actively Washington uses trade as a political weapon against its allies, the faster Beijing fills the resulting vacuum. China is already the second largest trading partner of the EU and is consistently increasing its presence in Southern Europe — in ports, infrastructure and the financial sector of Spain," the expert explained.

The current situation can really play into China's hands and gradually push the EU to work more closely with Beijing, Andrei Kogan, chairman of the Committee for Work with China at the Association of Exporters and Importers, confirmed. Moreover, the political dialogue is actively developing: for example, the Spanish Prime Minister has scheduled a visit to China on April 13-15. This will be the fourth trip in the last three years, which indicates a high level of contacts between the leaders of the two countries.

— In general, the current configuration looks very favorable for China. For Spain and the European Union today, the choice is not so much between China and the United States as between protectionism and an open system of international trade. China is trying to present itself as a proponent of multilateral economic cooperation, while the US policy under Donald Trump is perceived as more one—sided and confrontational," the Izvestia interlocutor summed up.