Swiss settlement: Russia is preparing for a new stage of negotiations on Ukraine
A new round of negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement may take place in Geneva as early as February 26. But there is practically no information about the course of consultations. The closed format of meetings between the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine may indicate a transition to concrete solutions, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, explained to Izvestia. The State Duma stressed that steady progress is being recorded despite the resistance of the Ukrainian delegation. Kiev is trying to link a future peace agreement with long-term guarantees from Washington. Europe, which has not been able to take a seat at the negotiating table, is also helping to delay the settlement.
How and where will the negotiations continue
Trilateral negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement may resume in Switzerland on Thursday, February 26, TASS reported, citing a source. The dialogue will continue despite the ongoing tensions on the line of contact and Kiev's continued attacks on Russian regions.
The hidden nature of the negotiation process — the absence of any serious rumors and leaks — may be a sign of progress towards concrete solutions, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.
— The negotiation process is a very complex multi—stage event. And judging by the fact that the parties involved in the negotiations — Russia, the United States and Ukraine — are trying not to make anything public, this is not a bad sign. This means that we are talking about solving very specific issues. If all this is made public, nothing will come of it," the senator said.
The absence of harsh statements from Kiev also indicates that the dialogue continues and is of a working nature.
The agenda of the trilateral discussions was kept strictly secret from the very beginning. Russia, as part of the agreements reached, does not disclose the content of the ongoing negotiations, said Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, speaking with military personnel on the eve of Defender of the Fatherland Day. At the same time, he stressed that Moscow had clearly outlined its position during the negotiations, including approaches to the territorial issue and the parameters of a possible demilitarization of Ukraine. The Kremlin had previously stated that the issue of territories would be raised in Geneva.
Kiev's representatives stated in general terms that issues of security and humanitarian guarantees were being discussed, while emphasizing the absence of inflated expectations. There was also talk of close communication between the military departments to create a mechanism for observing the ceasefire.
Russia, the United States and Ukraine discussed all this at meetings on February 17-18. On the first day, the negotiations lasted about six hours, on the second day, the parties met in two hours. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, described the dialogue as difficult but businesslike, noting that the parties agreed to continue contacts in the near future. Curiously, after that, Medinsky held an additional meeting with representatives of the Ukrainian side. Among them are Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov and head of the faction of the ruling Servant of the People party David Arakhamiya.
Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky during a press conference at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva following the second day of talks between representatives of Russia, the United States and Ukraine
The Geneva meetings were a continuation of the consultations that had previously taken place in Abu Dhabi. The first round of trilateral security talks was held there on January 23-24, and the second on February 4-5. The delegations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine were then headed by representatives of military structures, and therefore discussions were conducted mainly around technical aspects.
Kiev wants guarantees before an agreement is reached
A significant factor constraining the convergence of positions remains Kiev's policy of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the United States before reaching substantive agreements with Russia. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky had previously stated that Kiev was counting on American guarantees for at least 20 years, and ideally up to 50.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he stressed that it was precisely the lack of clarity on this issue that created the feeling that the parties were "talking about different things." Moreover, the Ukrainian leader, apparently, is waiting for the elections to the American Congress in order to strengthen his position with the support of the Democrats. According to him, security guarantees are needed for a long time, and presidents and political elites are changing.
The White House's position remains more cautious. According to the Financial Times, the United States links the provision of security guarantees with the preliminary achievement of a peace agreement, which is supposed to include territorial concessions from Kiev. In particular, we are talking about the Donbas, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from their controlled areas of the eastern regions. On the eve of the new round, the Ukrainian leader stated that he was against the withdrawal of troops even in exchange for a cease-fire.
This difference in approaches is reflected in the negotiations in Geneva. Kiev, in fact, is in no hurry to come to an agreement on positions with Russia, while the issue of American guarantees remains unresolved. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that any security formats cannot include a foreign military presence on the territory of Ukraine, considering the deployment of troops from third countries as unacceptable.
According to Polish political scientist and ex-deputy of the Sejm Mateusz Piskorski, Kiev's hard line and refusal to compromise solutions only weaken its negotiating positions in the future. He draws attention to the fact that a similar situation already developed in the spring of 2022, when the initialed agreements in Istanbul were not implemented due to external influence, primarily from London.
A repetition of this scenario may lead to the fact that the following proposals will be much less profitable for Ukraine and will involve more serious concessions, especially against the background of the advance of Russian forces, he said in a conversation with Izvestia.
Disagreements are intensifying in Brussels and Kiev
Zelensky considers the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass to be a step towards a possible internal split in Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev emphasizes that they consider the return of the lost territories to be a matter of time.
There is no longer unity within the Ukrainian leadership on a number of key issues. According to Western publications, there are different approaches to negotiations in Kiev — from supporters of the fastest possible agreement, to those who demand to defend their positions harshly, even at the cost of delaying the process. Such disagreements make it more difficult for negotiators to make tactical concessions or offer intermediate options. Any concession in the negotiations immediately becomes the subject of internal disputes.
The United States, acting as a key mediator, continues to insist on speeding up negotiations. On the eve of the Geneva meetings, Donald Trump called on Kiev to engage more actively in dialogue, emphasizing the importance of reaching agreements quickly. At the same time, Washington is exerting pressure on the domestic political line, linking the negotiation process with the issue of holding elections in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, there is steady progress in it, Alexey Chepa, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. According to him, the dialogue is developing despite serious resistance from the Ukrainian delegation. He noted that the activity of European representatives in Switzerland this time was noticeably higher than during previous rounds in the UAE.
Finding themselves almost on the periphery of the negotiations, representatives of a number of EU countries, as well as the United Kingdom, arrived in Geneva in large numbers, but their participation, according to media reports, was limited to informal consultations with the American and Ukrainian sides.
Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Presidential Council on Interethnic Relations, believes that Western allies are trying to strengthen Kiev's negotiating positions while pushing the United States to continue supporting Ukraine.
"Washington finds itself in a situation in which it cannot refuse to help, but at the same time seeks a peace agreement involving concessions from Kiev," the expert told Izvestia.
He also draws attention to the fact that European support allows Vladimir Zelensky to avoid compromises and delay the settlement, while the change primarily concerns the financing scheme for arms supplies — their burden increasingly falls on EU countries, which ultimately only delays the prospects for a peace agreement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that European representatives were not allowed to participate directly in the negotiations, and Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that, given the current mood in the EU, their participation was not capable of making a constructive contribution to the process.
Probably, it is the European position that forces Kiev to continue to escalate. Last weekend, drone strikes targeted, in particular, one of the facilities in Udmurtia and two industrial facilities in the Samara region. Rocket attacks were recorded in the Belgorod region. Power outages and civilian casualties were reported in several regions.
Nevertheless, the very fact that a new meeting is being prepared indicates the desire of the parties to maintain the negotiating track, even in the face of ongoing escalation.
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