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- Gunpowder Pool: an anti-Serbian military alliance in the Balkans is being created to arm Kiev
Gunpowder Pool: an anti-Serbian military alliance in the Balkans is being created to arm Kiev
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called the military alliance of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo the main threat to Serbia. He promised retaliatory measures and accelerated rearmament of his army. However, it is possible that this alliance is aimed not so much at the war with Belgrade, but rather at purchasing weapons from the United States and coordinating military assistance to Ukraine, which has already exceeded €300 million. Thus, Serbia finds itself in a ring of unfriendly countries that are arming Kiev, which puts it in an extremely vulnerable position. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Meeting after meeting
"A military alliance is the highest form of unification of various armies, so we are very concerned about it and we perceive it as the most serious threat to Serbia," Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic responded to the news about the meeting of the chiefs of the general staffs of Croatia, Albania and self—proclaimed Kosovo in the Albanian city of Shkoder and the negotiations of their defense ministers at the Munich Security Conference. As reported, during the negotiations, the parties agreed to hold the first joint military maneuvers in accordance with the strategic concept of the North Atlantic Alliance.
In response, the Serbian head of state promised accelerated rearmament of the army and an overall increase in military spending. According to him, if earlier the republic's armed forces received only 18% of the products of the local military-industrial complex, now the share will grow to 30-40%.
The ring is shrinking
The fact that a military alliance is forming around Serbia against it became clear in March last year, when Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina signed an agreement on cooperation in the military sphere.
At that time, there were statements that the parties planned to expand opportunities and cooperation in the defense sector, increase the compatibility of military standards through training, education and joint military maneuvers, jointly respond to hybrid threats, fully support Euro-Atlantic integration, exchange experience and coordinate procurement. However, it was about a new format — the joint purchase of weapons from the United States.
As Kosovo's Defense Minister Eyup Machedonzi explained at the time, "by buying large shipments from Washington, [we get] a lower price and faster delivery." The Ministry of Defense of Albania added that they plan to pay for the order from national budgets.
At the same time, Kosovo separately stressed that the trilateral agreement was welcomed at the Pentagon. The States cooperate within the framework of the American-Adriatic Charter, established in 2003. It includes Albania, Croatia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Kosovo as an observer.
According to German analysts from European Security & Defense, the alliance of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo fits into the NATO strategy.
The conclusion of the anti-Serbian alliance coincided with the visit of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to the region, so it is obvious that the West clearly authorized the creation of a new alliance.
Now it is possible that it may expand: Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina have expressed their willingness to accept other international players into this union.
The media writes that Bulgaria and the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina may well join the structure, Sofia, Belgrade's historical opponent, has already received an invitation.
NATO tried to assure Belgrade that the members of this association "contribute to stability" in the region, but these words hardly reassured the Serbian authorities.
Belgrade took the threat seriously
Belgrade took the new threats seriously. Alexander Vucic announced plans to return compulsory conscription to the army, as well as to build a factory for the production of drones. In addition, Serbia signed a defense cooperation agreement with Hungary, according to which the countries agreed to conduct joint military exercises, share intelligence, support the domestic defense industry in both countries, and cooperate in border security and critical infrastructure.
In early February, Russian Ambassador to Albania Alexei Zaitsev told Izvestia that the hostile ring around Serbia had begun to shrink. He stressed that the measures of applied military cooperation outlined in the concluded agreement are directly linked to the common policy of NATO and the EU.
The North Atlantic Alliance is already present in the region in the form of the KFOR international peacekeeping mission. The United States owns the largest military facility, Camp Bondsteel.
— Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina support the Kiev regime, provide various assistance to Ukraine, it is not difficult to guess where the weapons and military equipment they have purchased and produced may end up, — said Alexey Zaitsev.
Currently, this trilateral alliance has transferred more than €300 million worth of military aid to Kiev, with Croatia supplying most of it: 14 military support packages, including heavy weapons.
According to the country's Defense Minister Ivan Anushich, by 2030, the country plans to allocate 3% of GDP to military spending by 2030. Since the beginning of last year, mandatory conscription has been restored in the state. Croatia plans to purchase a large number of military equipment by 2028, including infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, air defense systems, self-propelled artillery installations, attack UAVs and American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems.
What do the experts think
There were suggestions in the media that the triple anti-Serbian alliance in the Balkans might be needed not so much for the war with Belgrade as as a logistics hub for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to Milan Lazovich, program manager of the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC), this option may well be considered behind the scenes.
— It's difficult to say for sure, but such a scenario looks relatively plausible. The European War Party would like to be able to guarantee the continuation of supplies," the analyst is sure.
In general, the political scientist considers the creation of a triple alliance to be an extremely negative scenario for Belgrade.
"Such military activity poses potential threats to Serbia and contributes to an increase in tension in the region, which cannot be called calm anyway, especially against the background of Russia's confrontation with the West and the security crisis in Europe," the expert believes.
Oleg Bondarenko, editor-in-chief of the Balkanist project, told Izvestia that the hub scenario was unlikely.
— Neither Albania, nor Kosovo, nor Croatia borders Ukraine, so it is extremely difficult to imagine any kind of logistics of military supplies to support the Armed Forces through these countries. This is not necessary, since there are two most important countries through which arms are supplied, Poland and Romania, which have access to the oceans," the political scientist explained.
According to the expert, the Serbian leader is primarily concerned not about hubs, but about Serbia's security.
"The history of the last 30 years has shown that Serbia is a completely alien element to the West, and for some nearby countries it still poses a military danger," the expert concluded.
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