Showcase of sovereignty: what will quotas give for Russian goods on marketplaces?
The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation has developed a draft law on the "Russian shelf" for non-food products, which introduces strict criteria for confirming their national origin. The goods must be produced in Russia or the EAEU countries with mutual access, the manufacturer and the brand are not under foreign control, and the right to the brand must belong to a Russian company for at least five years. How Russian goods will displace imports is discussed in the Izvestia article.
A blow to small platforms or a chance for local chains
The new initiative is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of Russian goods, their promotion on marketplaces and commodity sovereignty. The document is currently undergoing a regulatory impact assessment.
The problem is that regional retailers and marketplaces are increasingly facing difficulties verifying goods: the new rules place an additional burden on those who do not have powerful IT systems.
"We consider the draft law on the Russian shelf, for example, as a long—awaited systemic measure to restore order in the same furniture market," says Alexander Shestakov, president of the Association of Furniture and Woodworking Industry Enterprises of Russia (AMDPR).
In addition, the association advocates the introduction of additional duties on imports from unfriendly countries, as well as for leveling the competition conditions for Russian manufacturers. For example, the export of Russian furniture to Europe was banned in 2022, but nevertheless furniture from Europe is still supplied.
AMDPR, at the request of Izvestia, estimated that furniture sales through marketplaces reach 30% of the total market turnover, while up to 50% of products sold on these platforms are in the shadow segment. Many manufacturers do not comply with the technical safety regulations for furniture products, as well as other requirements imposed by Russian legislation.
According to calculations by UrFU specialists, the draft law of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on the "Russian shelf" for non-food products may strengthen the positions of local retailers and small marketplaces in regions where, according to the Association of Online Commerce Companies (AKIT), more than 70% of online commerce accounts for 2025.
For small regional marketplaces and independent retailers, the bill on the "national regiment" will create an asymmetric burden, says Sergey Kiryushin, associate professor of the Department of Trade at the Lobachevsky National Research University Institute of Economics. After all, unlike federal platforms, they lack the resources to automate verification of the origin of goods based on three criteria: geography of production, independence from foreign control, and brand rights, the economist noted.
Vladimir Poklad, Director of the Management Consulting Department of the Business Profile Group, notes that the draft law of the Ministry of Industry and Trade establishes a horizontal regulatory mechanism that does not provide for exceptions for small businesses.
From a practical point of view, this opens up additional opportunities for regional marketplaces and local retailers to more actively include domestic products in their assortment and increase their visibility to consumers, FEFU experts add.
According to estimates by the National Credit Ratings rating agency, online sales in Russia accounted for about a fifth of the total retail trade in 2025, while non-food products accounted for approximately 52% of e-commerce turnover. The total e-commerce market exceeded 4.9 trillion rubles, showing an annual sales growth of 25-30%. According to Rosstat and industry analysts, Russian manufacturers account for about 60-65% of the turnover of non-food products in retail, and in segments such as textiles and footwear, the share of domestic brands on the largest marketplaces reaches 70% in terms of the number of items represented.
Textiles and furniture on the verge of verification
Despite the import of raw materials, a number of industries have already built mechanisms to confirm origin, relying on local processing and registries like "Made in Russia."
Now the textile cluster of the Ivanovo region demonstrates a typical dilemma of "partial autonomy". With 85% ready for verification of origin based on the geography of production, critical vulnerability remains at the raw material stage, states Sergey Kiryushin.
The textile industry faces a fundamental contradiction: formal compliance with the criteria of the "Russian shelf" is possible through the rule of sufficient processing, Vladimir Poklad notes. Domestic enterprises control spinning, weaving and finishing, but 60-70% of cotton fiber is imported from Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan), and synthetic fibers (polyester) depend on supplies from China and Turkey.
Currently, the main suppliers of textiles, primarily technical ones, are manufacturers from the Ivanovo and Vladimir regions, enterprises of the BTK Group of companies, says Dmitry Shishkin, president of the Association of Subjects of Light Industry and the Fashion Industry Roslegprom. At the same time, the furniture industry in the Vologda region is successfully implementing the "Made in Russia" label, using locally produced wood from logging companies, says Vladimir Vinogradov, CEO of Pro-Vision Communications.
Regional assortment: Russia's priority against imports
In Siberia and the Far East, where imports from China dominate, Rossiyskaya Polka promises to shift the balance in favor of the national producer, although without government support, the effect is likely to be more than modest, said Olga Epifanova, Honored Trade Worker of the Russian Federation.
The draft law of the Ministry of Industry and Trade is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of domestic products and their promotion in the domestic market. According to expert estimates, the share of Russian products in categories with high localization potential may increase by 10-20% within 2-3 years after the launch of the mechanism. In Siberia and the Far East, that is, in the part of Russia that is logistically remote from the Moscow transport hub, but closer to the eastern direction of commodity flows, says Lyudmila Ruzhanskaya, head of the UrFU Department of International Management and Marketing. Proximity to China makes imports from China dominant, more than half, displacing domestic counterparts, the expert complains.
The introduction of a mandatory "national shelf" will increase the share of domestic products in the regional market by 10-15%, predicts Vladimir Vinogradov. A realistic scenario without government support for localization of production involves an increase in the share of Russian goods in the assortment of Siberian marketplaces by 8-12% due to the redistribution of the assortment, says Vladimir Poklad.
Jobs and investments: momentum or bureaucratic brake
The bill stimulates demand, but real employment growth depends on subsidies and simplification of procedures for small businesses.
The new requirements for confirming the origin of goods in the non—food sector are unnecessary difficulties and costs, warns Valery Pavlov, Chairman of the Council of the Chuvash Consumer Union.
— Instead of sewing or making souvenirs, we will drown in papers. Without serious support, this can simply lead to an increase in the cost of goods and a reduction in the assortment in stores," he said.
The implementation of the law will require significant investments in infrastructure and the development of production capacities of small enterprises, Vladimir Vinogradov believes. According to preliminary calculations by the Association for the Development of Entrepreneurship, this process will create several thousand jobs over the next three years.
If the law is really brought to mind in the logic in which we now understand it, then we can talk about tens of thousands of new jobs across the country, Dmitry Shishkin predicts. However, as noted by the Associate Professor of the Basic Department of Trade Policy at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova Svetlana Ilyashenko, the bill itself does not create new vacancies and does not allocate funding — it only forms the framework. But the key role in the real effect will be played by accompanying measures of state support for small businesses in industry: preferential loans, development programs, reduction of administrative barriers.
According to industry analysts, if the current growth rates of online commerce are maintained and the Russian shelf mechanism is launched, the share of Russian manufacturers in marketplace turnover may grow by 10-15 percentage points in 2-3 years, which theoretically will bring tens of billions of rubles of additional annual revenue to domestic brands.
Dmitry Leonov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Rusprodsoyuz Association, notes that for small marketplaces and local retailers, the initiative can strengthen cooperation with local manufacturers, which will potentially increase their share in the assortment.
At the same time, FEFU experts warn that this may be a challenge for small sites with limited resources, but at the same time it will create an incentive to digitalize accounting systems and form closer ties with local suppliers, which will strengthen their market stability in the medium term.
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