We hit the ceiling: Europe has taken up Russian oil again
On February 1, the European Union lowered the ceiling on Russian oil prices again to $44.1 per barrel. Izvestia found out whether this will affect Russian maritime exports, whether Russian oil is currently meeting the price limits assigned to it, and whether the EU has mechanisms for monitoring compliance with the price ceiling.
Even lower
At the end of 2022, the G7 countries approved a "price ceiling" for Russian oil of $60 per barrel. This means that companies from the jurisdictions of the G7 countries will not be able to provide services for trading Russian oil if the price in the contract is higher than this level. We are talking about transportation, insurance, financing, transshipment and other service procedures necessary for international fuel trade.
In September 2025, the ceiling was lowered from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. And from February 1, 2026, it will be reduced to $44.1.
I must say that all previous efforts to impose a price limit on Russian oil have produced questionable results. The shadow tanker fleet allowed circumventing the restrictions. Many courts have been withdrawn from EU jurisdiction. The tankers changed their flags and registration, and Western companies refused to provide services. Russian oil exports continued by sea.
Supplies have been established
The measure will not be effective this time either, experts are sure.
— A wide network of shadow supplies guarantees Russian hydrocarbons almost free movement on the market. Therefore, lowering the ceiling on Russian oil prices will not affect the total volume. According to him, the shadow fleet's capabilities are only growing. A striking example here is that the transfer of a number of vessels under the Russian flag signals the complete uselessness of the existing system of control over the country of origin of supplies," said Pavel Maryshev, member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society.
Asian countries, the current main consumers of Russian oil, are essentially ignoring EU sanctions, buying Russian resources well above the price ceiling in some places.
— Russia has long gone into the insurance and freight scheme via the UAE, China, Malaysia, Singapore. This creates some minor costs for the "shadow" fleet, but it does not change the picture," adds Ilya Gorbunov, commercial director of the Samara KVOiT Plant.
As long as China and India continue to buy, the ceiling cannot be considered as an effective mechanism limiting the mobility of Russian supplies, Maryshev notes.
In addition, oil supplies are already being carried out at a significant discount. And this, of course, corresponds to the economic interests of the current largest importers of Russian oil.
"The more attractive Russian oil becomes from a price point of view, the more financial incentives third countries have to buy it," says Ekaterina Bezsmertnaya, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
They don't have time
There is another point: threshold limits often do not keep up with the actual price dynamics. For example, in the spring of 2025, when the ceiling was at $60 per barrel, and Urals was stable around $52-53, that is, it became "sanctions-free."
Tankers from the G7 countries immediately joined its transportation quite legally: the volume of shipments increased by more than 50%. Greek shipowners have become particularly active.
Due to geopolitical turbulence and the introduction of US sanctions against leading Russian exporters last fall, in December 2025, the average price of Urals on world markets fell below $40.
Urals is currently trading around $50-52 per barrel, and problems in the Middle East and Venezuela risk pushing it higher.
In particular, the Urals price may be supported by the cessation of oil exports to China from Venezuela.
— After the Venezuelan conflict, the amount of Russian oil in China will become even greater. Whereas the EU's short—sighted energy policy has caused serious damage to the region's industry and significantly reduced the number of economically viable oil and gas suppliers," Maryshev points out.
Through third parties
There is another point: in an effort to limit the supply of Russian oil, the EU is willing to buy it from India after refining — without any restrictions. India is the largest buyer of Russian oil shipped by sea after Moscow shifted energy supplies from the European Union to Asian markets due to sanctions.
By increasing purchases from Russia, India has become the second largest exporter of petroleum products to the European Union, second only to Saudi Arabia in 2023. In 2024, Indian fuel exports to the EU increased by more than 70%. The main exporters are the refineries in Jamnagar, Vadinar and Mangalore, which process Russian oil, among other things.
In the near future, the EU plans to tighten oil sanctions against Russia. In particular, they want to include a complete ban on services related to the trade in Russian oil in the new 20th package of sanctions. Brussels also plans to combat circumvention of existing restrictions.
Additional anti-Russian sanctions, analysts say, are capable of upsetting the balance in the global oil market. However, oil sellers are likely to look for new intermediary chains again.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
