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Northern influence: Europe and the United States on the verge of a trade war over Greenland
The EU-US dispute over Greenland is intensifying every day. Donald Trump has already promised to impose duties against eight European countries that have announced plans to send their military personnel to the island. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that an increase in tariffs could provoke a new trade war with the EU. Europe is already developing retaliatory measures, including the revision of the trade agreement with the United States, which was agreed upon in 2025. At the same time, the Europeans are trying in every possible way to avoid an escalation: they do not benefit from confrontation with the Americans and they want to achieve security guarantees for Ukraine at the upcoming forum in Davos.
Europe's reaction to Trump's actions
The EU became nervous because of the threats of US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs against European countries. The American leader promised to impose duties on eight major economies: Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, France and Sweden. Starting from February 1, the tariff should be 10%, and starting from June 1 — 25%. Earlier, these countries announced plans to send military personnel to Greenland against the background of the US territorial claims to the island. Slovenia later promised to send two officers, but Trump did not mention it in his announcement.
The Europeans were given a condition: the duties would remain in place until a deal was reached on the "absolute and complete purchase" of Greenland. Trump's statement probably took European leaders by surprise, who decided to symbolically support Denmark. Thus, 15 soldiers and officers of the Bundeswehr stationed in Greenland unexpectedly received an urgent order to leave the island on the morning of January 18. The military later reported that this happened because they "basically completed the task."
However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz nevertheless stated that "customs threats undermine transatlantic relations and create a risk of escalation." British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the US actions "wrong." French President Emmanuel Macron assured that the Europeans "will respond in a unified and coordinated manner." On the evening of January 18, the EU ambassadors held an emergency meeting on Greenland.
Another trade war could hurt Europe. To avoid it, the EU agreed to a dubious deal last year. Washington has set a single "ceiling" of duties of 15% on most goods from the European Union. In exchange, the EU agreed not only to provide preferential customs treatment for American goods, but also to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the United States in the coming years (primarily LNG), as well as to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy.
As a response to Trump's threats, the largest faction of the European Parliament, the European People's Party, demanded a revision of the EU—US tariff agreement and the waiver of preferential duties for Washington. The likelihood of a new round of trade war between the parties is quite real, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
— The power is on the side of the United States, so the probability that the EU will receive new duties (and will have to put up with them), and cancel its own is quite high. At the same time, the processes of disintegration in the EU will also intensify, and the potential collapse of the European Union (albeit stretched over time) It may also be a natural outcome of a new trade standoff with the United States," said Mikhail Khachaturian, Associate Professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University.
The likelihood of escalation is very high: the EU is already preparing retaliatory duties, considering restrictions on American banks and digital taxes.
— The most likely scenario is a tough initial phase, followed by painful negotiations and compromise. But the long—term damage has already been done — the era of unconditional transatlantic partnership has been shaken," says Khoja Kava, senior lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
The increase in US duties represents a significant disadvantage for the economies of the EU countries, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Some manufacturers may simply transfer their business to the United States in order to avoid duties and at the same time reduce energy costs, while EU countries will have growing budget deficits and debt, she believes.
The Greenland issue reinforces the split in NATO
Trump's claims to Greenland regularly become a reason for public criticism from European allies. For example, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure earlier warned his American counterpart Scott Bessent that any steps to seize Greenland would be tantamount to "crossing the border" and this would jeopardize economic relations between Europe and the United States. Representatives of small EU countries such as Estonia, Croatia, and Ireland also express their disagreement.
The US Permanent Representative to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, responded by noting that Europe "sometimes tends to overreact when an issue is raised," and, according to him, this topic concerns only the United States, Denmark and Greenland. However, the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance has already joined the issue. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte intends to hold a meeting in Brussels on January 19 with Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt. Last weekend, large-scale demonstrations were held in Denmark with the slogans "Greenland is not for sale" and "Hands off Greenland."
— The situation with Greenland proves that Europe has lost its legal personality, and its word means practically nothing to the United States. And there is nothing Europe can do about it except protests and weak attempts to reach an agreement," Mikhail Khachaturian believes.
Earlier, Donald Trump did not rule out establishing control over Greenland by force. The United States even secretly tried to obtain information about military installations in Greenland, Berlingske writes. Later, the administration explained that the States wanted to buy Danish autonomy. If Trump succeeds in implementing his plans for Greenland, it will certainly become a historic event, and the authority of the American leader will increase significantly, said Dmitry Novikov, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
— The source of international authority at the moment is mostly power and the ability to use it to protect national interests, rather than following some rules, protocols, traditions, and so on. In this sense, Trump, on the one hand, follows in line with what is happening and has, of course, a very good instinct. On the other hand, he is a trendsetter because other countries, such as Israel, are also looking at his brutal policies," he told Izvestia.
The expert does not believe that the United States wants to annex the island.: Rather, it's about concluding an economic deal. If Greenland is controlled, the United States will gain access to rich natural resources and actually expand its territory. The United States attracts significant reserves of oil and gas. In addition, there are deposits of copper, lead, uranium and other minerals in the bowels of the island, many of which are critically important for the production of batteries and electric vehicles. Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed the importance of Greenland in terms of security. In this regard, the US claims to Canada can also be considered.
To change the position of the White House, the Europeans had previously proposed the establishment of a NATO mission in Greenland. The Western press writes that the EU is actually afraid of worsening relations with the United States amid negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, even urged once again not to be distracted from Ukraine by Greenland.
The annual Davos forum starts in Switzerland on January 19, and Donald Trump has announced that he will take part in it. It is expected that on January 21, the US president may meet with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In Europe, they hope to achieve clearer security guarantees for Kiev from the United States.
However, it is impossible to achieve a breakthrough in the settlement without Moscow's position. Earlier, Vladimir Putin recalled that ignoring the security interests of the Russian Federation and the formation of threats against it became the causes of the conflict in Ukraine. He stressed that Russia intends to continue to consistently pursue the implementation of its goals until Kiev declares its readiness to move to a peaceful settlement process. At the same time, the head of state stressed that agreements should be reached as soon as possible.
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