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- Hiring without demand: business's need for workers has dropped to a minimum in six years
Hiring without demand: business's need for workers has dropped to a minimum in six years
The demand for personnel in Russia is slowly fading. By the end of 2025, employers reported 1.6 million vacancies to the employment services, and this is the least since 2019, when the unemployment rate was almost twice as high as the current one, Izvestia calculated based on Rosstat data. For comparison, the number of vacancies announced a year earlier was 12% higher. The decrease in demand for staff is due to the cooling of the labor market, the exhaustion of hiring resources from companies, as well as a shift in business focus to retaining current employees and attracting temporary staff instead of expanding staff. This leads to a slowdown in wage growth and increased competition for jobs, but in general, experts consider what is happening not as a crisis, but as a return to a more balanced and rational labor market model. How much salaries will rise this year and in which areas the fight for jobs will be most acute is in the Izvestia article.
Why is the number of vacancies decreasing
By the end of November 2025, employers had requested 1.6 million employees from the employment service. This is the lowest figure since 2019. Compared to the previous year, the number of vacancies decreased by 13% from 1.8 million. At the same time, in 2024, the number of ads exceeded 2 million for almost six months, and in 2025 this level did not rise above 1.8 million, Izvestia calculated based on Rosstat data.
The decrease in demand for employees is also confirmed by data from recruiting services. SuperJob notes that 2025 has become a period of returning to equilibrium in the Russian labor market: the balance between supply and demand is gradually being restored. During the year, the number of vacancies decreased by 12%, while the number of resumes increased by 19%. This means that the market is becoming more balanced: businesses have more choice again, and job seekers have to make more efforts to stand out.
In December, the hh index (the ratio of the number of active resumes to the number of vacancies) rose to almost nine against five a year earlier. This indicates increased competition for places. At the same time, the number of vacancies in December 2025 was 27% lower than at the end of 2024, when the number of resumes, on the contrary, increased by 37%.
The labor market, which reached its maximum "overheating" in 2024, is showing signs of easing tensions. However, this process is proceeding more slowly than expected, despite the slowdown in domestic demand, the postponement of investment projects and the deterioration of the financial situation of enterprises, including a decrease in corporate profits and an increase in debt burden, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. At the same time, unemployment returned to a historic low of 2.1% in November, and the staff shortage remains one of the key constraints on the expansion of output. Wage growth has also slowed compared to 2024.
The combination of indicators — employment, unemployment, the number of vacancies and the rate of their closure — indicates the maximum efficiency of the labor market over the past six years, Vladimir Smirnov, Director General of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, told Izvestia. According to him, the number of people employed has increased to 75 million now against 73 million in 2019, and the unemployment rate has dropped to a historic low of 2.1%. At the same time, the number of open vacancies remains comparable to the low—key level of 1.6 million. The key factor was the acceleration of staff recruitment: if in the second half of 2019, companies searched for employees for an average of 57 days, then in 2025 it was already 41 days, the expert shared.
The market is still a "job seeker's market," but it is gradually becoming more balanced: not only general, but also structural unemployment is decreasing, and supply and demand are meeting faster, Vladimir Smirnov noted.
The Rosstat editorial board reported that the service does not comment on issues related to the demand for employees.
In the face of uncertainty, employers increasingly prefer not to expand their staff and not to declare new vacancies in employment services, but to cover personnel needs by increasing labor efficiency and redistributing functions among employees, explained Yulia Dolzhenkova, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Outsourcing of business processes and the involvement of the self-employed to perform individual tasks are becoming additional tools.
The current situation on the labor market is in many ways the opposite of what was observed one or three years ago, noted economist Andrei Barkhota. The period of increased demand for specialists was replaced by personnel optimization, and this process began not with small and medium-sized businesses, but with large companies, including state-owned enterprises.
— At the same time, a decrease in the number of vacancies in official statistics does not always mean the disappearance of real demand for workers. Many employers are less likely to use employment services as the main recruitment channel, moving to direct search through professional communities, recommendations and work with trusted contractors. This is especially true for project industries, where instead of constantly expanding staff, businesses form teams for specific tasks and deadlines, without taking vacancies to the open field," said Andrey Glushkin, Managing Partner of the Main Division.
The reduction in vacancies in a number of industries may also be due to the fact that previously unclosed positions have already been filled, especially in enterprises with competitive salaries and a developed social package, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Which specialists are in demand the fastest
According to the data hh.ru The most noticeable reduction in the number of vacancies was recorded in the areas of personnel management and training, IT, as well as in the investment and consulting segment.
SuperJob notes that the IT market is going through a reboot phase after a period of rapid growth: the number of vacancies decreased by 13%, while competition among novice specialists increased by 11%. Employers today focus on experience and in-depth expertise, primarily in areas related to AI and cybersecurity. A decrease in demand is observed in retail, logistics and in the segment of repair services.
The need for HR managers, car dealership employees, warehouse staff, junior retail and office workers is also decreasing, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. According to her, the labor market is increasingly influenced by automation and robotics, which leads to a decrease in demand for full-time employment in a number of mass professions. At the same time, the demand for "new" specialties remains steadily high, primarily related to AI, as well as for working professions, including in construction, including segments where the share of migrants was previously high.
The demand for entry-level accountants, cashiers, call center operators and office staff will gradually decrease due to automation and the development of AI, predicts Professor Yulia Dolzhenkova. Employees and customers already perform a significant part of their functions independently — when buying tickets, conducting online banking transactions, and arranging services. At the same time, digitalization increases the need for highly qualified specialists. Even in conditions of economic uncertainty, there is still a demand for unique personnel, which supports the demand for executive search (a specialized service for finding and attracting top managers and highly qualified specialists to key positions in the company).
— In general, the market is shifting from mass and universal positions to narrow and applied roles. There is still a demand for specialists capable of working in complex projects, such as event producers, engineers of non—standard buildings, experts in logistics and multimedia solutions. This means increased competition in standard roles and more stable positions for those who bring measurable value to the business," said Andrey Glushkin from the Main Division.
What will the growth of competition for jobs lead to?
The reduction in the number of vacancies is gradually changing the balance of power in the labor market — from the "seller's market" of labor to the buyer's market, which directly affects the slowdown in wage growth, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. According to her estimates, nominal salaries in Russia will grow by 6-7% on average in 2026, compared with 14% in 2025.
In turn, the slowdown in wage growth and their convergence with the dynamics of labor productivity is one of the conditions for cooling consumer demand, Olga Belenkaya from Finam emphasized. According to her, in the short term, this may further slow down economic growth, but the Central Bank considers such a process as a necessary prerequisite for a steady decline in inflation.
The downward cycle in the labor market may also lead to a moderate increase in unemployment in the future, according to economist Andrei Barkhota.
SuperJob notes that for employers, the current situation creates the opportunity for more balanced and high-quality hiring. Companies get a chance to avoid closing positions urgently in favor of recruiting employees focused on long-term work. For applicants, the priority shifts from the number of responses to their quality: the importance of relevant skills, clear career goals, and the ability to show specific business value increases. In general, what is happening is not a crisis, but a return to a healthier and more rational model, the company believes.
According to experts, the labor market will continue to cool down in 2026. Demographic factors, migration restrictions and a shortage of specialists with the necessary competencies will contribute to maintaining the shortage of workers. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Labor, by 2032 the economy will need to attract 12.2 million workers, of which 11.7 million will have to replace those retiring, and about 500 thousand more will have to fill new jobs, Olga Belenkaya noted.
At the same time, the pressure will decrease due to a slowdown in economic demand, a reduction in corporate profits, as well as the introduction of AI, digitalization and automation. According to the expert, an additional factor will be the complication of business conditions for small businesses, sole proprietors and the self-employed, which may lead to a partial flow of employees into hired labor.
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