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The interrupted process: how the escalation of the conflict changes the prospects for a settlement
Over the past two weeks, Kiev has carried out a series of terrorist attacks, including a strike on a cafe and a hotel in the Kherson region and an attack on the state residence of the President of the Russian Federation. It is obvious that the Ukrainians' task is to influence the course of the negotiation process by provoking Moscow to violate international humanitarian law, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador—at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. Moreover, Zelensky recently stated that the SBU is preparing new "operations" against Russia. By conceding on the battlefield, Ukraine is trying to somehow demonstrate its potential and strengthen support from Europe and the United States, experts say. Meanwhile, Moscow has reportedly been handed a new peace plan agreed with Washington. What are the prospects for a Ukrainian settlement against the background of the apparent escalation of the conflict — in the Izvestia article.
Why is Ukraine escalating the conflict
The coming winter has not cooled the hotheads in Kiev, despite its obviously losing position, including on the battlefield. Russian troops have maintained an offensive pace and have been advancing in several key areas since the beginning of the year, including in Donbas and Zaporizhia. In Ukraine, meanwhile, a tense situation remains with the functioning of critical infrastructure, as Zelensky has already publicly stated. The Ukrainian holding company DTEK even reported that the current situation in the energy sector has become "the most difficult." Nevertheless, Kiev continues its destructive policy of escalating the conflict. The New Year holidays were marked by a series of terrorist attacks.
Before the start of the working week, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod and Voronezh regions were attacked by drones. In Voronezh, a woman was killed and several people were injured as a result of an act of Ukrainian terrorism.
On January 1, Ukrainian Armed Forces militants launched a targeted attack on a hotel and cafe in the village of Khorly, Kherson region, where locals were celebrating the New Year. As a result, 29 people were killed, including two children, and at least 60 were injured. And on the night of December 29, an attempted UAV attack on Vladimir Putin's state residence in Valdai was recorded. In a recent conversation with the Russian leader, according to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Donald Trump expressed outrage at Kiev's reckless move, but later questioned his intention to attack the residence. In any case, the actions of the Ukrainians did not go unanswered, and on the night of January 9, the Oreshnik medium-range missile system was used - this time against targets in Lviv.
— Over the past two weeks, Kiev has committed a series of clearly provocative terrorist acts. Their task is to influence the course of the negotiation process, to try to provoke Russia into inappropriate actions, preferably with an emotional violation of international humanitarian law, in order to put it in a negative light before the American side," Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador—at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
According to the diplomat, all these actions are clearly coordinated with Kiev's European partners and accomplices.
"We have not heard any outrage and appropriate adequate comments from the European side either about the attempted attacks on the state residence, or as a result of the bloody terrorist attack in the Kherson region, so there is an understanding that the Europeans were aware of and did not intend to react negatively towards the Ukrainian authorities in any way," notes Rodion Miroshnik.
In Kiev, it seems, they will go for more provocations. The other day, Zelensky, after a meeting with the acting head of the SBU, Khmara, announced the preparation of new "combat operations" against Russia.
— Through such actions, Kiev, firstly, wants to demonstrate to Western partners that it is not the losing side, that Ukraine continues to resist. Therefore, there is no reason to say that Kiev is ready to accept the terms of the peace agreement," says political analyst Denis Denisov.
The possibility of resuming direct bilateral negotiations with Russia is probably not being considered either at the political or even technical level, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at Valdai. Otherwise, he said, "we might have seen some steps to de-escalate the conflict." Negotiations in this format were last held on July 23, 2025. Although, as it turned out last November, the parties periodically meet in the UAE at the level of special services.
How is the Ukrainian settlement progressing
The consequence or, conversely, the reason for the aggressive actions of the Ukrainian side may be the strengthening of the consolidated position of its allies. On January 6, a meeting of the so—called "coalition of the willing" was held in Paris, whose guidelines are still determined by only two actors - Paris and London.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, President of France Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer sign a declaration on the deployment of forces in Ukraine after the ceasefire during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" summit
Discussions about the possibility of sending military contingents, which have been subsiding and gaining momentum for many months, have acquired relatively specific outlines. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with Zelensky, signed a declaration of intent to deploy multinational forces in Ukraine after the conflict is resolved. Moscow has repeatedly stressed the unacceptability of such conditions - all this will be considered as legitimate military targets, the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.
It is worth emphasizing that Russia does not oppose security guarantees as such. In December, Vladimir Putin, in an interview with India Today TV channel, said that every country has the right to choose its own means of protection and ensure its own security. However, this should not happen at the expense of the Russian Federation, the president stressed.
—Perhaps Kiev's recent actions, a certain escalation that we are witnessing, is also a signal to its European partners — a call not to reduce, but to increase support both in terms of arms supplies and in terms of Ukraine's socio-economic infrastructure," Andrei Kortunov believes.
Kiev continues to rely on the support of the United States, which is actively involved in the settlement process, conducting a dialogue with all parties to the conflict. Washington's chief negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also participated in the coalition of Willing meeting. Following the meeting, the former noted "significant progress" in several areas, including the framework program for security guarantees, but it is important to emphasize that the American side did not sign the declaration of intent.
At the same time, Zelensky then said that the document on security guarantees from the United States was "actually ready for finalization" and was allegedly discussed at a recent meeting with President Donald Trump. The delegations of Ukraine and the United States met at the estate of the American leader at Mar-a-Lago - almost at the same moment when the attack on Vladimir Putin's Novgorod residence was launched. According to Zelensky, the parties raised "difficult issues on the basic framework for ending the conflict."
It was probably this "basic framework" that was sent to Moscow as another version of the peace plan allegedly agreed with Washington. At least, Western media claim that after meeting with the "coalition of the willing," Witkoff and Kushner handed over the document to Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation, in Paris.
Interestingly, neither the Kremlin nor the White House immediately officially commented on these contacts.
— As far as can be judged, the Ukrainian leadership expects that it can put pressure on Russia through the United States, through the Trump administration, presenting the case in such a way that the escalation is the result of the actions of the Russian side, to hold it responsible for the continuation of hostilities and try to get the United States to impose a new package of sanctions, — says Andrei Kortunov.
At the same time, Trump is showing mixed signals. On January 9, commenting on the course of negotiations on Ukraine, he stated the following: "I think we'll settle this eventually. It's a pity that we couldn't do it faster." At the same time, referring to the dialogue with the Russian leader, he noted that these relations "have always been excellent," but immediately added that he was "very disappointed." It is worth noting that the United States is not going to curtail its indirect support for Ukraine through the sale of weapons to NATO countries. And all this, obviously, does not greatly contribute to a constructive dialogue between Moscow and the West.
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