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- Hotly contested: how the United States is building relations with Venezuela after Maduro's arrest
Hotly contested: how the United States is building relations with Venezuela after Maduro's arrest
On January 6, the UN said that the US military operation in Venezuela undermines international law and makes the world less secure. On the same day, the first court hearing was held in New York, where Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores, pleaded not guilty to the charges. Meanwhile, Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president in Caracas, and she offered the United States a dialogue. Washington insists, first of all, on the admission of its companies to oil production. Donald Trump allows new attacks on Venezuela in the absence of cooperation. However, experts believe that the United States is not seeking a change of power in Caracas, and a sharp revision of the country's foreign relations, including contacts with Moscow, should not be expected yet. The development of the Venezuelan crisis is described in the Izvestia article.
Maduro appeared in court in New York
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights stated that the American operation contradicts international law and undermines the key principle of the UN Charter — the prohibition on the use of force against the territorial integrity and political independence of states, "making the world less secure."
A day earlier, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was taken to New York. At the first hearing of the federal court in Manhattan, he pleaded not guilty to the charges. His wife, Celia Flores, has also protested her innocence.
Maduro faces four counts of conspiracy to commit drug terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of machine guns and "destructive devices," as well as conspiracy to possess such weapons. His wife is named in the indictment as a participant in this scheme and is accused, in particular, of accepting bribes for organizing a meeting between drug traffickers and the head of the Venezuelan anti-drug agency, as well as ordering kidnappings and murders. The court scheduled the next hearing for March 17.
At the same time, Washington is discussing the future of Venezuela. According to Reuters, at a closed briefing for Congress, the Republican leadership insisted that there was no talk of "occupation" of the country, and the operation itself was in the nature of "law enforcement." Trump himself claims that the United States is not at war with Venezuela.
— We are at war with people who sell drugs. We are at war with people who bring prisoners from their prisons and mental hospitals, drug addicts, to our country," he said.
American society is split over the military action carried out by Trump, Dmitry Novikov, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, said in a conversation with Izvestia. About a third of citizens support the president's actions, a third oppose them, and about a third are undecided.
"At the same time, there is a consensus on relations with Venezuela: they should be developed, and economic cooperation with it remains extremely important, especially against the background of growing energy demand in the United States due to the development of artificial intelligence technologies and the expansion of the necessary infrastructure," the expert noted.
The new government in Venezuela
Meanwhile, in Venezuela itself, the configuration of power is rapidly changing. On January 5, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was officially sworn in as interim President.
The Russian Foreign Ministry welcomed Rodriguez's assumption of office, calling it Caracas' determination to ensure the unity of the government. Moscow also wished her success in fulfilling the tasks facing the country.
Rodriguez has held the post of vice president since 2018. At the same time, she oversaw the economic unit: in 2020, she headed the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and since August 2024, the Ministry of Oil. She was responsible for overcoming the protracted economic crisis in the country, the effects of hyperinflation and US sanctions. To do this, she resorted to cutting government spending, limiting lending, and maintaining a fixed dollar–bolivar exchange rate. On the day of taking the oath of office, she invited Washington to cooperate with Caracas.
— Venezuela reaffirms its commitment to peace and peaceful coexistence. <...> We invite the U.S. government to cooperate in a program focused on joint development within the framework of international law to strengthen lasting coexistence in the community," she said.
At the moment, almost nothing has changed in the country's domestic policy, power remains in the hands of the Bolivarian government, Dmitry Rosenthal, director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
— Another thing is that Maduro has consolidated the various wings of the "Chavista camp," while Rodriguez probably does not have such opportunities yet - before that, she represented only one of the factions within Chavismo. She will need support and reliance on various political forces, including, perhaps, a part of the moderate opposition," the expert noted.
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez attends the swearing-in ceremony as interim President of Venezuela
There are also no forces in this system that advocate distancing themselves from Russia, so there is no talk of Caracas reviewing contacts with Moscow, Beijing and Tehran yet. At the same time, there are such people in the ranks of the radical opposition to the regime, Rosenthal added.
In recent years, the radical opposition has been considered the main contender for power in the event of a regime change — and its key figure was Maria Corina Machado. She won the opposition primaries in 2023, but was not allowed to run. For a long time, Machado was the face of the democratic opposition outside Venezuela.
A few days ago, Trump publicly distanced himself from Machado, saying she had no "support" or "respect" within the country. The Washington Post newspaper, citing sources, wrote that the position of the US president could have been influenced by the fact that in October 2025, Machado, having accepted the Nobel Prize, did not "concede" it to Trump. The opposition leader herself also said that she had not communicated with Trump since October 2025, that is, since receiving the award.
Washington's strategy towards Caracas
Washington has not yet begun to fully dismantle the Maduro regime, which is impossible without the physical occupation of the country.
The goal of American policy towards Caracas is not regime change, Novikov believes. Washington sets itself the task of regaining control of oil assets and increasing oil production in Venezuela itself.
— It is easier to do this with a government with real power and strength, which would simply pursue a more friendly policy towards the United States. Apparently, Trump did not initially intend to destroy the regime. He proceeded from the fact that only some kind of demonstration action was needed," the expert noted.
A similar position is expressed by the Western media. According to their insiders, Trump's advisers see Rodriguez as a technocrat and expect to work with her on issues of transit of power and full access of American companies to the Venezuelan oil infrastructure. At the same time, as Politico reported, Trump demanded from Rodriguez that Venezuela stop selling oil to US opponents and send "agents hostile to Washington."
At the same time, Trump did not rule out the resumption of strikes against Venezuela. On January 4, he told reporters that he could order "another strike" if the Venezuelan side did not cooperate with the United States in two areas — to open the oil industry to the United States and stop drug trafficking.
However, new strikes are unlikely to follow, Novikov is sure. In his opinion, a coup was carried out inside Venezuela, as a result of which Maduro's own entourage got rid of him, hoping that he would not return to the country.
— There are no prerequisites for the fact that the new government — especially one that positions itself as temporary and remains unstable — will suddenly turn away from the course of negotiations with the United States. Disagreements are possible, but this is rather a bargaining and an attempt to improve conditions, rather than a return to the previous policy of tough confrontation with Washington," he said.
The ideal option for Venezuela would be to find a compromise between all major actors in world politics, Rosenthal stressed. Working relations with Russia, China, and the European Union are in the interests of Caracas. The main question now is how Venezuela will be able to build relations directly with the United States, the expert concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
