Break up the alliance: Russia will react to Ireland's possible entry into NATO
Ireland has no plans to join NATO yet, Russian Ambassador to the country Yuri Filatov stressed in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, the population of the republic is wary of such a prospect. The potential deepening of Dublin's cooperation with the aggressive anti-Russian military bloc will be taken into account in the military and political planning of the Russian leadership, the diplomat noted. In Europe as a whole, the desire for militarization is growing amid fears of an "inevitable war" with the Russian Federation. This rhetoric is also putting pressure on a country that has maintained neutrality for a long time. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Ireland is thinking about abandoning neutrality
Discussions about the expediency of Ireland's neutrality have resumed with renewed vigor after the country's authorities registered drones of alleged Russian origin in their skies.
In early December, at the moment when Vladimir Zelensky's plane was approaching Dublin, four drones flew in the direction of the proposed route. According to the Irish Times, there were even five drones. The drone incident scared the Irish security services so much that a no-fly zone was imposed over Dublin when the Ukrainian aircraft landed.
— Against this background, the Irish leadership tried to once again wave its favorite theory about the growing "Russian threat" to Europe, including Ireland. Statements have been made about the intention to follow the European Union in militarization, building up its defense potential and developing comprehensive cooperation with EU partners, as well as with NATO, in the face of this "threat," Russian Ambassador to Ireland Yuri Filatov told Izvestia. — There is no talk of Ireland joining NATO yet — the country's population is wary of such a prospect.
Militarily, Ireland is almost entirely dependent on the United Kingdom, in particular its Navy and air Force. The country's own army is in a deplorable state, according to foreign publications. So, the Irish Navy has eight ships, but there are enough crews to operate only two, writes Politico. There are no fighter jets, radars, or military-grade sonars in the country. By the way, even Ireland's record defense budget for 2026 of €1.5 billion is equal to the cost of nine F-35 fighter jets.
As for relations with NATO, Ireland has long insisted on its military neutrality. The alliance respected this decision and welcomed cooperation, including within the framework of the Partnership for Peace program. The Russian embassy notes that Ireland's rapprochement with NATO will not remain without reaction.
— As for any consequences for relations between Russia and Ireland as a result of such militarization, the conclusion is obvious - these relations are practically frozen on the initiative of the Irish side, so it is difficult to imagine any further deterioration. Another thing is that it should be very clear to everyone that although we do not consider Ireland a threat to Russia's national interests, the deepening of Dublin's cooperation with the aggressive anti-Russian military bloc represented by NATO will certainly not remain without our attention and will be taken into account in military and political planning," the ambassador said.
NATO Arctic Light 2025 exercise, September 18
The risks of a direct clash between Russia and NATO have increased significantly. In September, Denmark held its largest military exercise in Greenland in recent years, Arctic Light 2025. Previously, the maneuvers focused on rescue operations and civilian tasks, but now the focus has shifted to full-fledged preparation for armed conflict.
The possibility of further expansion of NATO in Europe
The fact that Finland and Sweden joined NATO was an unprecedented geopolitical shift, which showed that the policy of long-term neutrality under pressure from external factors can be revised in a matter of months. The thesis about the "Russian threat", which politicians and Western media force in their statements, puts pressure on traditionally neutral countries.
Potentially, following Ireland, Malta, Cyprus and Austria may consider giving up their neutral status. These four states remained the only EU members outside of NATO. At the same time, experts say, a rapid shift towards the alliance is unlikely to be expected, although the constant desire for militarization cannot be denied.
"If the crisis in Ukraine is really protracted and lasts for at least another few years, then it is impossible to exclude the possibility of Austria joining NATO, where discussions on this topic are underway," German political analyst Alexander Rahr told Izvestia.
Back in late July, Austrian Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger said she was ready to discuss her country's possible renunciation of neutrality. Nevertheless, in September, the consideration of such an idea was refuted by the Chancellor of the Republic Christian Stocker, stating that the neutral status was beyond doubt. By the way, it has been enshrined in the country's Constitution since 1995.
— Everything will depend on the general state of affairs. The politicians of the EU countries that have not yet joined NATO are not very independent. The drone incident is largely aimed at encouraging countries to take belligerent and aggressive actions," Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for European Studies, told Izvestia.
Malta's neutrality is also enshrined in the Constitution. The authorities of this State traditionally demonstrate a high degree of caution in order not to violate the status of non-alignment. However, like Ireland and Austria, Malta participates in the NATO Partnership for Peace program. However, the citizens of the island state themselves are not yet seeking to join the alliance, Russian Ambassador Andrei Lopukhov said in July. At the same time, he stressed that the efforts of propagandists who claim the "Russian threat" are being felt in Malta.
In the case of Cyprus, the situation is a bit more complicated. The country's membership in NATO largely depends on Turkey. Ankara, which does not recognize the republic, uses its right of veto, although the country itself wants to be part of the alliance. Being deprived of the opportunity to join NATO, Cyprus has focused on the maximum possible cooperation within the framework of defense initiatives of the European Union, in particular, actively participates in PESCO.
— Joining NATO or the deployment of NATO bases in Cyprus is currently impossible, since Turkey, being a member of the alliance, constantly vetoes any such steps. We reserve the right to make such decisions independently, as part of our democratic process," Haris Georgiadis, head of the country's parliamentary committee on Foreign and European Affairs, told Izvestia.
The expert community notes that Russia would be more concerned about the expansion of NATO not at the expense of neutral EU countries, but towards the countries of the post-Soviet space.
— The expansion of NATO into the post-Soviet space is virtually excluded. We are talking about Belarus or Ukraine, it will not be a topic for the next 25 years. However, Europe is consolidating on a military scale. Peace in Ukraine can stop it," Alexander Rahr believes.
NATO reform or lack of money could prevent the expansion of the alliance, the expert believes. As long as Europe has the means, the improvement of infrastructure and the expansion of the bloc can continue.
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