World map: what will happen to the oil market in 2026
The new year, 2026, will be marked by uncertainty in the oil market. Geopolitical risks and supply surpluses will affect the price environment, which will also affect the volume of supplies. Experts do not expect a serious reduction in Russian oil exports, but they do not rule out that the volume of supply from the United States may change. The situation on the fuel market is described in the Izvestia article.
Ambiguous signals
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026. The IEA reduced it by 100,000 b/d, to 108.6 million b/d. The oil supply is expected to grow by 2.4 million bpd. The estimate of the growth rate of demand was lowered by 20 thousand bpd.
"The supply growth of OPEC+ countries was reduced by 100,000 b/d in 2025 and by slightly less than 30,000 b/d in 2026, mainly due to supply disruptions from countries under sanctions," the report says.
IEA analysts believe that the increase in supplies from OPEC+ members will amount to 1.3 million b/d, from non—member states - 1.2 million b/d.
In turn, OPEC maintained its previous forecast for global oil demand and supply in 2026. The Alliance believes that the market will be balanced. However, this runs counter to the expectations of other experts, who assume an oversupply.
The December report of the Organization of Exporters noted that in order to maintain a balance between production and consumption in 2026, OPEC+ countries will need to produce an average of 43 million bpd. Despite this, the key members of the alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed in early November to suspend further production increases in the first quarter of 2026.
Dangerous surplus
There are two main forecasts on the oil market, which are published every year and then adjusted throughout the year, said Sergey Pikin, Director of the Energy Development Fund.
— This is the forecast of the International Energy Agency, an institution on the part of buyers who are interested in making growth forecasts lower so that the market goes down, and OPEC, which represents the main producers interested in raising prices and increasing volumes. And sometimes it happens that the forecasts of these two institutions are very different from each other," the expert points out.
The full expectations of both these organizations usually do not come true, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle, he clarifies.
"I think demand will be higher than the forecasts given by the IEA, but less than OPEC," Pikin believes.
However, taking into account the latest revision of oil prices recorded in the IEA report, the forecast for an increase in energy supply to 108.6 million bpd looks quite achievable, according to Vladimir Demidov, an independent expert on the resources and energy market. From a technical point of view, the capacities in the USA, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, the Middle East and Russia are sufficient to produce such a volume of oil.
According to Izvestia's interlocutor, the key factors that may affect the achievement of this indicator are OPEC+ policy and the geopolitical situation. In the first case, the alliance can either increase production or reduce it. The geopolitical situation, in turn, could have an impact through a potential war in Venezuela, problems with oil production in Iran, and Russia's isolation.
A lot will also depend on China's actions, says Pikin, because China took on all the additional volumes that could lead to increased pressure on prices by filling oil storage facilities. China's further actions are one of the most important factors in 2026, the expert is convinced.
At the same time, future forecasts of oil supply on the world market may again be adjusted downward, Evgeny Smirnov, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, does not exclude.
The decrease in the IEA forecast of supply growth by more than 100,000 bpd reflects a number of factors, Demidov argues. The first of these is the revision of assumptions for individual countries.
Outside the OPEC alliance, in particular, there is weaker demand. For example, the IEA is simultaneously cutting forecasts for consumption growth due to a slowdown in the economy, energy efficiency and an increase in the number of electric vehicles, he lists.
— Therefore, it makes no sense to predict an overoptimistic increase in production, taking into account the signals from OPEC+. The Alliance has consistently made it clear for six months that it is not interested in increasing supply at any cost. In the conditions of the expected surplus, the IEA adjusts the results of its reports to the more restrained reports of OPEC+," explains the source of Izvestia.
The reasoning that global oil demand is expected to peak in the coming years, and then it will decrease as the climate agenda is implemented and the global electric vehicle market develops, is not entirely accurate, Smirnov disagrees.
— The desire of countries to be carbon neutral has already led to a decrease in investment in oil exploration and production, but today it is obvious that even in many developed countries, the decarbonization of the economy is hampered by a number of structural problems and limited fiscal space, — explains the economist.
It should be borne in mind that in its report, the IEA speaks of a demand of 104.5–104.6 million bpd, Demidov recalls. The agency also forecasts a supply of 108.6 million bpd, which means that in 2026 there will be a surplus of 3-4%.
— This is a very large surplus, which will put pressure on the price. Accordingly, it will have to go down. Therefore, most likely, countries will begin to reduce production in order to keep their profits, the expert is convinced.
The global oil market situation remains largely uncertain, as countries are accumulating reserves of this energy source and their growth is faster than consumption, Smirnov points out.
"It is against this background that expectations (not always justified) of an oversupply are formulated, which slow down both investments in the industry and oil production itself," he believes.
However, the oversupply that has been taking place on the market lately is quite easily smoothed out, the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes. This is facilitated by the mechanism within OPEC+, which allows adjusting oil production, reducing it during periods of oversupply.
"This mechanism, as the experience of its implementation has shown, can have a significant "disciplining" effect on supply," the economist is convinced.
Maintaining positions
Russia's place in the supply structure, which will be observed in 2026, is determined by the OPEC+ agreement, because the country complies with the quotas agreed upon, recalls Sergey Pikin.
— Saudi Arabia currently ranks first in OPEC+, although the United States has the largest production in the world. Therefore, the countries are arranged in the following order: the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia," he notes.
Russia currently produces about 9-10 million b/d, and exports range from 5 million to 6.5 million b/d of oil and petroleum products, says Vladimir Demidov. Taking into account the total production projected by the IEA, supplies from Russia are likely to remain at this level in 2026, he predicts.
— Russia will either maintain its share in the foreign market, or lose a little bit. We can talk about a reduction of 0.5–1%, but no more," the expert suggests.
The main reason is geopolitics, that is, these are sanctions that put pressure on Russian companies and create market restrictions for domestic suppliers, the Izvestia interlocutor believes. Russian exports continue to be under pressure due to the expectation of new restrictions on the Russian shadow tanker fleet, Evgeny Smirnov clarifies.
At the same time, Demidov expects that Russian oil companies will have a rather difficult year due to the severity of secondary US sanctions. At the same time, the willingness of India, China and Turkey to purchase Russian oil is important for maintaining exports.
However, the situation is not as dire as it might seem at first glance. New sanctions against the Russian Federation immediately after their introduction contribute to a reduction in Russian oil exports, confirms Smirnov. However, later, as they adapt to the restrictions, supply volumes recover.
— The volume that Russia exports is also determined by our production and processing, which depends on both domestic consumption and various external factors. But in general, I think that exports will be no less than in 2025, and no sanctions will definitely affect their reduction," says Sergey Pikin, adding that all of Russia's main trading partners have not reduced the volume of oil purchases from the country, but have slightly increased them.
At the same time, Russia could theoretically shift down in the supply structure due to increased oil production in the United States, Guyana and the Persian Gulf countries, Demidov admits. And the volume of oil production in the United States is an important factor that can affect global exports.
— Most likely, either growth will continue in the United States, or production will remain at the same level. However, it may go down amid strong pressure on prices due to a surplus in the market. And therefore, some American oil companies are likely to leave the market," the expert predicts.
The United States expects a slight decrease in its own oil production in 2026 after it has been steadily growing for several years, as the margins of oil producing companies are also decreasing against the background of a decline in global prices, Smirnov agrees.
In general, the slowdown in supply growth in the global oil market is beneficial for Russian exporters, the economist believes.
— In conditions of growing global supply glut, they are always ready to provide flexible discounts to buyers of their oil. It is no coincidence in this regard that Russia, even when faced with a decline in its oil exports, continues to maintain its production at a stable level.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
