Red nose: alcohol consumption is falling in Russia

Alcohol consumption is at its lowest levels in the last 28 years. At the same time, a variety of alcoholic beverages is growing on the shelves, and new positions are emerging. What kind of products they are, whether they will displace traditional categories, and whether consumption among the younger generation is really falling — read the Izvestia article.

Total reduction

The Federal Service for Alcohol and Tobacco Market Control (RATK) confirmed to the publication a decrease in the volume of retail sales of alcoholic beverages. According to the agency, in 11 months of 2025, Russians bought almost 182 thousand dal of alcohol, which is 19.7 thousand dal, or 9.8% less than in the same period of 2024. At the same time, alcoholic beverages with a strength of over 9% accounted for 59% of the products sold, or 107.4 thousand dal. Such drinks were bought by 1% less than last year for the same period (108.5 thousand dal). In particular, for vodka, we see a decrease in sales by 3.5%: if 68.75 thousand dal of vodka were bought from January to November 2024, then 66.3 thousand dal were bought in 11 months of 2025.

Sales of cognac also decreased (by 9.1%, to 11.37 thousand dal), grape wines (-1.5%, or 50.7 thousand dal) and grape—containing beverages (-57.5% for those not containing ethyl alcohol and -8% for those containing). Sales of fruit alcoholic beverages decreased significantly (-74%, to 2.3 thousand dal).

The sector of low—alcohol beverages "sank" the most - by 87.6% compared to last year. In 11 months of 2025, only 1,453 thousand dal were produced. The experts interviewed explained that excise taxes on sugary carbonated cocktails have increased significantly, which has made production less profitable, and some manufacturers have shifted their production capacity to other products.

On the contrary, sales of liqueurs, tinctures, etc. increased by 13.4% (to 16.67 thousand dal). Sales of "other" alcoholic beverages (rum, gin, whiskey, etc.) increased by 3.9%, to 13 thousand dal.

"New types of alcohol" should be understood as ciders, fruit wines, Korean soju, gin, rum, etc., says Magomed Magomedov, analyst at Finam.

According to InfoIine, new categories are beginning to crowd out traditional spirits: the share of vodka in the structure of retail alcohol sales in Russia has decreased from 39% to 34% over the past five years, while sales of still and sparkling wines have increased by 12%, and low—alcohol beverages - by 15% last year alone.

Cider is in the black

According to Pavel Shapkin, head of the Center for the Development of National Alcohol Policy, demand for cider (+23.5%) and mead (10.3%) has increased significantly over the past year, but experts interviewed by the publication attribute the high figures rather to a low base.

Alexander Stavtsev, Vice President of the Russian Association of Retail Market Experts and head of the Wineretail project, explains the growing popularity of cider with marketing tricks. "A cider bottle looks like a champagne bottle. The feed is appropriate: a sparkle on the cork, a pop when opening — all this works for the consumer, coupled with a price of about 300 rubles. This category of drinks can displace the most budget segment of sparkling wines on the market. Other cider producers disguise their products as beer, pouring them into cans with a capacity of 0.5 liters," he says.

According to the expert, there is no question of replacing weak drinks with strong ones — these products are created for different audiences initially.

A matter of taste

Rum, whiskey and drinks based on them are poorly represented on the Russian market, and regulation is not as strict as for vodka products, the experts surveyed noted.

— However, these flavoring drinks can slightly displace white vodka, which, due to regulation, becomes more expensive than the buyer is willing to pay for it. There is also a novelty factor — the consumer wants to try a new product that has a certain taste, unlike traditional vodka with a clear taste," says Alexander Stavtsev.

New drinks

Sales and consumption of Korean soju have increased significantly over the past year, according to Stavtsev, but this is the result of a low base effect.

"It's hard to say how long the interest in this drink will last, but Russian manufacturers could easily increase the volume of soju by adding sweetener and flavoring additives to the alcohol base," he said.

Nevertheless, it is simply unthinkable to compare soju with vodka, since vodka sales amount to about 750 million liters per year, and this is the largest category in the alcohol market.

— Vodka demand and profitability of producers are influenced by excise taxes, since vodka at a price above the minimum retail price is a purely marketing product, and producers' incomes largely determine their marketing budgets. The situation with cognac could be similar if it were not for the problem of raw materials. All available grapes, which should be one and a half times more to saturate the market, are used for wine production, and imported raw materials from neighboring countries do not stand up to any criticism, complains Stavtsev.

At the same time, Maxim Chernigov, Associate Professor of the Department of Management at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg, sees the potential in shifting the structure of alcoholic beverage consumption from strong to less strong. So, according to him, for 11 months the consumption of vodka decreased by 3%, cognac — by 9% (yoy).

Off the books

According to experts, about a fifth of the total alcohol turnover in Russia is illegal. This is alcohol, the production and sale of which passes by the USAIS.

At the same time, cognac products account for the highest proportion of counterfeit: 6 out of 10 bottles are fakes. According to Shapkin, this is not necessarily a counterfeit, made under unknown conditions. Sometimes these are completely legal products, which are manufactured using non-grape alcohol, that is, the technology is broken.

Nevertheless, the situation is changing, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the analytical agency VMT Consult. According to the calculations of the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, in 2015, 59% of the consumed alcoholic beverages accounted for the shadow market. In 2025, this share has decreased to 20%. However, with an increase in the excise tax and a decrease in the availability of legal alcohol, the proportion of counterfeit goods may increase in the future.

—As a rule, strong alcohol is forged, in which a significant share of the price is accounted for by the excise tax and which is easiest to prepare at home," she says.

At the same time, according to the analyst, counterfeit products are extremely heterogeneous.

— It is worth distinguishing products "for yourself", which are undoubtedly counterfeit, since they are manufactured without appropriate licenses. But such a product can be of high quality, as it is produced carefully and in compliance with technology. Another thing is mass production, which is produced in unsuitable conditions for sale and mimics legal products with labels of well—known brands. The third story is the manufacture of products from leftover raw materials and bypassing official registration systems. As a rule, such products are distributed through channels "for their own". The former do not make a significant contribution to the overall statistics. In this case, the second group is the most dangerous for consumer health, and in terms of taxes not received by the state, it is the third," says Kosareva.

In her opinion, there is no talk of a total reduction in alcohol consumption in Russia, and statistics may be distorted due to an increase in the volume of the shadow market.

Some of the expert's words are confirmed by official statistics. Thus, according to Atol, sales of moonshine distillers in the first five months of 2025 increased by 37% at an average price of 8.9 thousand rubles, and sales of alcohol meters jumped by 52% at once.

The new generation

Most of the experts surveyed attributed the decline in sales to rising prices for alcoholic beverages due to excise taxes and the introduction of minimum retail prices. However, the reason may lie in changes in society.

"Zoomers" are increasingly choosing sobriety or sparse alcohol consumption. "At the same time, they are noticeably less focused on vodka, and this is one of the factors contributing to the long—term decline of the vodka model," Mikhail Chernihiv summarizes.