A test of strength: why heat tariffs are catching up with reality

The 2025/26 season has become a real stress test for the Russian heat supply system. Extreme frosts — from Siberia to central Russia — have come amid active changes in the industry, and it is in such conditions that the growth points are most clearly manifested. Authorities and business services are operating on high alert, and the real state of networks is increasingly becoming the subject of detailed analysis, operational decisions, and management conclusions. This winter has already provided some tough examples. In Kuzbass, due to a malfunction at a thermal power plant, an entire city was left without heating, and the situation reached personnel decisions at the regional government level. The authorities of the Murmansk region were forced to introduce a high-alert mode due to utility accidents and partially limit the power supply to consumers. It is significant that it is at the height of the cold weather that the industry enters a new tariff cycle: since January, heat prices have increased by 1.7%, and there is another, more noticeable increase ahead in the autumn. About why tariff increases have become a long—overdue necessity, see the Izvestia article.

Historical context: the Soviet legacy

Modern main heating mains and boiler houses were built back in Soviet times, decades ago, designed for a completely different level of consumption and demographics. At that time, the design approach assumed a low population density, a stable number of production facilities, and, most importantly, a lower load on the network. In recent decades, the situation has changed radically: housing stock is growing in cities, the number of connected consumers and enterprises is increasing, which leads to an operational overload of infrastructure.​

Many experts and representatives of utility companies admit that the deterioration of heat supply systems in some regions reaches 70%, some sections were commissioned back in the 1950s and 1970s. The scale of the problems is enormous: thousands of accidents are recorded annually, and maintaining even the current condition requires enormous investments.

Separation from reality

One of the key features of the Russian thermal power industry is the constant gap between the actual cost of maintaining the system and the value of tariffs. For many years, citizens have been paying (and are paying now) for heating services noticeably less than its real economic cost. According to industry reports, the actual cost of a gigacalory, depending on the territory, exceeds the average payment of the population by 1.5–2.5 times. The difference is covered either by subsidies from regional and federal budgets, or by forced savings on repairs and modernization of infrastructure.​

This leads to a constant "accumulation of problems": equipment wear, accidents, interruptions, forced shutdowns, and increased costs for urgent repairs. The enormous long-term costs required to maintain and modernize the networks are being postponed, and the system is operating at almost the limit of its capabilities.

The price of comfort

In 2024, the average tariff for the population was 2,700–2,900 rubles per Gcal. Since July 2025, the indexation has increased the rate to 3,044 rubles, despite the fact that the average cost of thermal energy production exceeds this value by 1.5-2.5 times. By European standards, the Russian tariff is still one of the most affordable: in Germany in 2025, heating costs 1180-1300 euros per year, which is about 10,000 rubles per month, even despite frequent interruptions and temperature instability.​​ In France – more than 7,000 rubles. In Latvia, Lithuania or Eastern European countries — 8,000-12,000 rubles for the same thermal energy.

Comparing not only the cost, but also the quality of services, the Russian thermal industry demonstrates unique advantages: guaranteed temperature parameters, uninterrupted supply of hot water, no need to take care of boilers or fuel reserves on their own – all this is the result of the work of hundreds of thousands of power engineers.

Maintaining the operability of such a large—scale engineering system is not only a difficult task, but also extremely expensive. According to experts, the renewal of fixed assets requires annual investments of hundreds of billions of rubles, and trillions for the comprehensive modernization of infrastructure. The rising cost of equipment, fuel, as well as higher labor and tax costs are all embedded in the tariff structure.​​

An additional factor is the constant expansion of the residential and industrial stock, which means an increase in the number of connected facilities. Without increasing tariffs, it is impossible not only to develop the system and prevent frequent accidents, but even to maintain the existing level of comfort and safety. Tariff containment leads to critical network wear and risks of major accidents and supply disruptions.

Cadres decide everything

A modern heat supply system is not just pipes and boiler rooms, but a high—tech engineering infrastructure that requires qualified specialists at every stage: from design and installation to maintenance and emergency response. However, the underfunding of the industry over the decades has seriously undermined its prestige and attractiveness for new personnel. Young people are becoming less likely to work in housing and communal services: the lack of qualified mentors, limited career opportunities and relatively low wages make the profession unattractive.

At the same time, the industry is actively innovating: digitalization of processes, automation, and the use of robots to diagnose and repair networks are gradually changing the nature of work. Today, we need not only experienced thermal engineers, but also IT specialists capable of developing monitoring systems, managing smart grids, and implementing advanced technological solutions. Investments in human resources and the education of specialists are becoming as important as the modernization of equipment: without competent people, even the most advanced infrastructure will not be able to guarantee uninterrupted heat and hot water for citizens.

Social contribution

The increase in tariffs is not only an economic necessity, but also a conscious contribution of citizens to the safety of their homes, reliability and quality of life. The invested funds are used to replace emergency sites, upgrade pumping stations, purchase modern equipment, and train specialists. Thanks to the payments of millions of Russians, accidents are decreasing, and there is confidence that even in severe frosts, heat will not disappear from apartments, hospitals, schools, and businesses.​​

Every ruble paid is an investment in the future.: new equipment, modern technologies, workplaces and a high standard of comfort for all citizens, including the most vulnerable segments of the population.​​

Tariff containment through subsidies and artificially low rates is possible only in the short term. According to expert estimates, in order to fully modernize the heat supply system, Russia needs trillions of rubles of investment annually, and only tariff increases, transparent pricing, and long—term investments will allow it to maintain a safe, sustainable, high-quality infrastructure. Citizens become complicit in this process — their payments ensure reliability and comfort, and guarantee a future where there will always be warmth in the house.​​

The Russian model is one of the best in the world in terms of the combination of quality, accessibility and reliability of services. But in order to preserve and develop them, it is necessary to stop paying for comfort "on credit." And this means that tariff increases are not an abstract necessity, but a real contribution of everyone to security and sustainability.