Resignation percentage: Can Maduro resign amid US pressure
The resignation of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may take place in a year and a half. According to foreign media sources, such a scenario was allegedly allowed by the Caracas administration, subject to the provision of certain guarantees. The topic, among other things, could have been discussed during a recent telephone conversation between Donald Trump and the Venezuelan leader. If the latter refuses to voluntarily surrender his powers, the United States threatens to switch from threats to action and launch a ground operation in Venezuela. The skies over the republic are already closed for flights, Russian tour operators are stopping air transportation until next year. What awaits Venezuela after Maduro, how the United States increases pressure on the authorities of Caracas and what they say about it in Russia — in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to Venezuela if Maduro resigns
After several months of pressure on Venezuela, the United States seems to be as close as possible to achieving its main, though not openly advertised, goal of regime change in the Bolivarian Republic.
Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power in the country since the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013, is ready to resign, sources tell CNN. According to the TV channel, the head of Venezuela may allegedly leave office after 18 months. However, there is no official confirmation.
According to the foreign press, Maduro requires several conditions for his resignation. Among them is the cancellation of the American reward of $ 50 million for the capture of the head of Venezuela, as well as guarantees of safe departure from the country for the president himself, his wife Celia Flores and 35-year-old son Nicolas Maduro Jr. Azerbaijan, Cuba, Russia and Turkey may become potential destinations for political asylum, Western media claim.
The topic of Maduro's potential departure, according to media reports, was also discussed during a telephone conversation between the Venezuelan president and the head of the White House. Donald Trump personally confirmed the fact of the talks to reporters at the end of last week, however, without revealing the details of the conversation.
At the same time, the States are clearly not ready to wait a year and a half. Washington intends to provide guarantees of safe departure from the country to the Venezuelan president and his family only in the event of his immediate resignation, the Miami Herald newspaper writes, citing sources familiar with the negotiations. If this does not happen, Washington will be ready to launch a ground operation on the territory of the Latin American state.
— If these leaks are true, then setting a deadline of 18 months on Maduro's part is a competent approach, during which time Trump can strengthen or weaken his position, and the United States can switch to something else. In terms of the transition of power, Trump will be satisfied with any candidate, it is important for him to show his victory," Viktor Kheifets, director of the Center for Ibero—American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia.
If the resignation occurs now, it is unlikely that there will be a complete regime change, the president's associates will most likely try to stay in power, and the military loyal to the current leader can help them in this.
In accordance with the Constitution of Venezuela, in the event of the resignation of the head of state, powers are transferred to the Vice President of the Republic, Dulce Rodriguez, for the next 30 days, during which elections will need to be held. She will no longer be able to run for office.
According to the AP news agency, Venezuelan representatives had previously proposed another plan to Trump, which assumed Maduro's stay in power for another three years, and after her transfer to Dulce Rodriguez until January 2031 - such a scenario is also possible under the law, but representatives of the White House immediately rejected it, the media reported.
The question remains whether the Venezuelan opposition will try to come to power in this situation. Some foreign analysts believe that opponents of the current government may insist on re-analyzing the ballots of last year's presidential election. The opposition claims that, with proper counting, their representative Edmundo Gonzalez has the majority of votes. He is currently outside Venezuela, as are some other opposition representatives. At the same time, it is not united enough to form a new government.
— If pro—American forces do come to power in the country, Russia's cooperation with Venezuela will have to be forgotten, since one of the goals of the United States is to limit the influence of the BRICS, and, in particular, Russia and China in the Latin American region. However, I do not believe that Nicolas Maduro will be ready to surrender the country without a fight, so I consider it inappropriate to talk about a pro—American government in Venezuela today," says Egor Lidovskaya, Director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center.
The potential departure of Maduro may negatively affect relations between Moscow and Caracas, agrees Alexandra Terzi, program coordinator of the INF. She recalled that Moscow and Caracas signed a strategic partnership agreement in May this year. In October, the Russian Federation ratified it.
— In addition, there is a risk that serious unrest may begin in the country, the state may plunge into chaos. In any case, Moscow may lose an important partner in the region. However, so far this scenario seems unlikely," the Latin American expert added in an interview with Izvestia.
Prospects for the American operation in Venezuela
The US pressure on Venezuela began back in August. Washington, which recognized Latin American drug cartels as terrorist organizations, declared Nicolas Maduro the head of the "Cartel of the Suns", the States even promised to pay a fee for assistance in his arrest.
Already in September, the United States began to strengthen its military presence in the Caribbean and strike ships allegedly involved in drug trafficking. By November, the number of American troops near Venezuela had reached 15,000, a record number over the past few decades. Attacks on drug traffickers' ships have saved more than 45 million Americans, according to US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristy Noem.
On November 29, Donald Trump announced the closure of airspace over and near Venezuela. In Caracas, the statement was called a hostile act and the licenses of some airlines that stopped their flights to the country were revoked. These included Turkish Airlines, TAP, Iberia, Avianca, LATAM and GOL Linhas Aereas.
The cancellation of flights from Russia to Venezuela by the end of February next year was also announced by the tour operator Pegas Touristik. Travelers were offered to choose a trip to another country or leave money in the company's account. Some of the tourists whose trip took place in recent days were sent to Cuba instead of Venezuela. Nevertheless, the evacuation of Russian tourists from the Bolivarian Republic is not yet planned, the Russian Union of Tourism Industry reported. All travelers will return at the end of their trip.
At the same time, Trump himself clarified that the announcements about the closure of airspace are not related to US plans to launch a ground strike on Venezuela. The president has no plans to send troops to the Latin American state, Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin added. The politician also stressed that Trump had not given instructions regarding the airstrikes.
Meanwhile, Venezuela already has at least two options for responding to a U.S. attack. Both are cited by Reuters. The first involves the use of small military units in 280 locations across the country for acts of sabotage and other methods of guerrilla warfare. The second scenario calls for using the security services and armed supporters of the ruling party to create unrest in Caracas and turn Venezuela into an "ungovernable country."
Threats to launch a military operation, as well as increased attacks on ships, are condemned by Venezuela's allies, including Russia. Moscow has repeatedly expressed its support for Caracas.
"On behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation, we express our support for the government of Nicolas Maduro and solidarity with the fraternal Venezuelan people in defending national sovereignty in connection with external threats. We admire the firmness of spirit and determination with which the Venezuelan people defend the true sovereignty of their homeland," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko said at the 19th meeting of the High-level Russian-Venezuelan Intergovernmental Commission, which took place on November 28.
Venezuela remains a reliable partner and ally of Russia in Latin America and in the world as a whole, he stressed.
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