Climate in control: Political differences may complicate the green transition

The COP30 climate summit participants will be looking for solutions to the problem of climate change, the transition to renewable energy sources, as well as determining the financing of these measures. More than 50 thousand people will gather for the event, which will last until November 21 in the city of Belém bordering the Brazilian Amazon. The conference is taking place 10 years after the conclusion of the historic Paris Climate Agreement. COP30 has just begun, but there are already concerns about the chances of the parties agreeing on a collective response to climate change. In particular, due to the fact that the United States, which is among the leaders in greenhouse gas emissions, refused to participate. Whether it will be possible to achieve a result without the key economies of the world is in the Izvestia article.

Three tasks for COP30 participants

All the attention of those who are not indifferent to climate change on Earth for the next 11 days is focused on the Brazilian city of Belém. Negotiations within the framework of the COP30 summit will last here until November 21. In total, more than 50,000 participants are expected at the event, including world leaders, scientists, NGO representatives and eco-activists. At the same time, the first meetings were already launched last week, which were attended by the heads of a number of states and governments.

At the summit, which is being held in Brazil for the first time, the host country intends to agree on steps to fulfill the commitments made at previous COP meetings.

One of the main tasks is to negotiate an energy transition, that is, to gradually reduce dependence on fossil fuels and expand the use of renewable energy sources. This need was fixed at a meeting in 2023, but since then there has been no significant progress.

Another goal is to discuss options for adapting to climate change. In this regard, Brazil proposes to develop a tool designed to measure how well countries are prepared for climate shifts. The conference participants are invited to determine its indicators.

In this context, it also seems remarkable that the Belém summit is taking place 10 years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which set a goal to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, which humanity has not been able to achieve. According to UN estimates, taking into account the existing environmental policy, by the end of the century the temperature will rise by 2.3–2.5 °C. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees notes that 250 million people worldwide have been forced to leave their homes due to extreme weather conditions related to climate change.

The third task that the conference participants will have to solve is to agree on financing, without which the transition to a low—carbon economy on the planet will be impossible. According to foreign analysts, this is the main difficulty, since rich countries responsible for climate change are delaying the transfer of funds to poor countries in every possible way. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to provide annual financing of $1.3 trillion. One of the priority financial instruments is the Brazilian initiative, the Rainforest Forever Foundation. Fundraising began last week after the presentation at the leaders' meeting, and more than $5.5 billion has already been accumulated. These resources should be used for the protection and maintenance of tropical forests in about 70 countries, as well as for the needs of the indigenous people of these zones.

Why it is difficult to coordinate climate policy

There are usually debates in the first week of the conference, and specific documents are signed in the following days. At the same time, the possibility of the parties to come to solutions that could slow down global climate change is already in question. First of all, political differences play an important role here.

Discussions at COP30 began in the absence of the American delegation, and the United States immediately declined to participate in the event.

The move is generally logical, given that Donald Trump, upon taking office, withdrew his country from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time. Unlike his predecessor, the new American president is almost completely moving away from the "green" policy, despite the fact that the United States is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases. Earlier, Trump promised to cancel the wind turbine construction program and subsidies for electric vehicles, and instead develop and increase the extraction of fossil fuels — oil and gas, as well as nuclear energy.

— Without Washington's participation, global decarbonization efforts are unlikely to succeed, as the United States is the second largest source of CO2 emissions in the world. If the previous Trump administration sent its delegation to the COP in 2018, this time no senior officials will attend the conference. However, more than 100 state and local government leaders will come to the climate conference to promote their own decarbonization initiatives — the USA Climate Alliance and Climate Mayors. Such a rift indicates the deepest contradictions in American society," Evgenia Prokopchuk, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.

Disagreements within the EU, which positions itself as the leader of the "green" policy, also hinder the adoption of joint decisions. The coordination of the general line with which Brussels would go to the summit in Brazil was delayed for 18 hours. Some countries were not ready to adopt plans to reduce emissions due to the priorities of their own economies.

— The EU was unable to agree on a unified position for the climate summit due to the refusal of several members to support the wording referring to the Net Zero program, which the EU had previously failed to lobby the International Maritime Organization. But the reason is not climate skepticism — there is a debate about the adequacy or inadequacy of the measures that are proposed as tools for the implementation of the "green" agenda, the expert continues.

According to her, the Net Zero initiative is designed to reduce the cost difference between traditional fuels produced by oil refining and its carbon-neutral alternatives, "green" ammonia and ethanol (they are synthesized from "green" hydrogen produced by electrolysis, which is why they are also called electroammiac and electrometanol). Revenues from carbon charges are expected to be reinvested in the development of clean technologies in shipping and directed as assistance to countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

But, for example, representatives of the Greek shipping industry believe that the introduction of carbon regulations will cause an increase in fuel prices. And this, in turn, will provoke an increase in the cost of everyday goods.

Finally, shipowners point out the lack of clarity about how the billions of dollars generated from carbon taxes will return to the industry in the form of investments. There are concerns that these funds may go to other industries or be lost due to bureaucracy, Evgenia Prokopchuk summed up.

Collective decision-making is often hampered by differences in approaches to climate policy, explains Elena Maslova, Senior researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— While the EU is trying to achieve zero CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the Russian Federation is making efforts to catch this CO2 from the atmosphere. These approaches are paradigmatically at odds because Brussels is seeking to carry out reforms to put the economy on a "green" track, while the Russian approach is more focused on a strategy of so—called mitigation — adaptation and minimization of the consequences that can lead to climate warming in addition to carbon absorption, she told Izvestia.

The growing conflict between the Global North and the Global South complicates the process of making joint decisions, and here we are talking about both geopolitical difficulties and environmental issues.

As one of the influential leaders of the South, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva insists on the debt of the countries of Europe and the United States for the consequences of the period of their industrialization.