In the EU without a vote: future members of the association may be deprived of the right of veto

The leaders of the candidate countries for EU membership were summoned to Brussels for the summit. The reason for the meeting was the talk that newcomers could be deprived of the right of veto until the current member states revise the voting rules requiring an absolute majority. However, the candidate countries do not agree with this scenario. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Six circles

The EU Enlargement Summit was held in the capital of the European Union, attended by the leaders of six countries: Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky connected via video link.

The President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, confirmed the EU's strategic priority to increase the number of member states from 27 to 30, but not everyone in the European Union agrees with this.

The day before, the European Commission published an annual review of candidate countries for EU membership. Montenegro is considered the most successful State in carrying out the necessary reforms. According to Costa, she may join the association in 2028.

The last country to join the European Union was Croatia, which happened in 2013.

Brussels notes that they are preparing for expansion and even introducing amendments to the seven-year budget until 2034, but the prospects are still vague. The reason is in the rules: any EU country can easily block the entry of a newcomer.

Currently, in order for a candidate country to join the European Union, it needs to go through six stages of negotiations on various reforms. And the results of each stage must be approved by an absolute majority of votes.

Now they are talking about the need to change this rule — to introduce a relative majority and abolish the right of veto. Such an initiative is opposed not only by Hungary, but also by France and the Netherlands.

Revoke the right of veto

Against this background, another idea has emerged: to accept new countries, but not to give them the right of veto until the old EU members figure out their rules.

Instead, newcomers may be assigned a "probation period" of several years. In case of deviation from the democratic principles of the bloc, they will be excluded, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos told the Financial Times.

"I don't want to be known as a commissioner bringing Trojan horses that will be in effect in five, 10 or 15 years," she explained.

Some European countries fear that Moldova, Ukraine, or the Balkan states may violate the bloc's rules on democracy, judicial independence, media freedom, or join an alliance with the Russian Federation.

Hungary is cited as an example, having repeatedly blocked sanctions against Russia and military assistance to Ukraine.

As Politico explains, if the initiative is accepted, Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro, which are on their way to EU membership, will be able to enjoy many of the benefits of EU membership without having the right to block initiatives with which they disagree.

This was categorically opposed in Montenegro, North Macedonia and Ukraine.

Zelensky said that Kiev agrees only to full membership, without any "curtailed" options. Brussels began negotiations on membership with Kiev in the summer of 2024, two years before that, the EU granted Ukraine candidate status. Charles Michel, then head of the European Council, said that the country could become an EU member by 2030. The day before, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he did not expect Ukraine to join within the time frame stipulated by the bloc's seven-year budget, which runs until 2034.

In addition, Budapest is blocking the opening of the first cluster of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU. The Hungarian authorities explain their decision for "fundamental and strategic reasons." According to Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Ukraine does not have a functioning economy, clear borders and real sovereignty.

The discussion at the Brussels summit, which lasted more than an hour, demonstrated that everyone contradicts each other. Brussels is unhappy with the system and wants to solve the problem by cutting the rights of newcomers. On the contrary, they want to limit the right of veto for the old members. According to Marta Kos, European countries are actually much more cautious about accepting new members than they officially declare.

What do the experts think

Natalia Eremina, Professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, notes in an interview with Izvestia that such a trend existed within the EU before, but now it has become especially acute.

"Initially, there were always conflicts and very difficult negotiations between the different participating countries on the functioning of the common market, monetary relations, entry or non—entry into the eurozone, as well as on foreign policy and migration," the expert believes.

According to the political scientist, there are now many more issues causing sharp friction and they have become fundamental.

— In some cases, they are existential for the EU. There are so-called rebel countries. These are new member countries that take a more pragmatic position based on their national interests, protection of their market and protection of a pragmatic course in relations with other countries," the expert believes.

She stressed that this is evident from the statements made by representatives of Hungary and Slovakia about relations with Russia and China.

— They demand concessions for themselves, regulate migration flows in their own way, or even refuse to participate in migration quotas. There is also a conflict situation over Ukraine. Not only Hungary and Slovakia, but also Poland, which allegedly supports Ukraine, nevertheless opposes the entry of Kiev agricultural products into the EU markets," the analyst explained.

According to Eremina, the situation is unlikely to improve in the near future.

"The hype on various issues will only increase, so relations will escalate more and more," the political scientist summed up.

Elena Panina, director of the RUSSTRAT Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies, believes that in the event of such a split, EU member states will not have the right to vote at all.

"In fact, the members of the European Union of the "second tier" will be able to participate in making key decisions solely on bird rights — as mute performers of orders from Brussels," the expert noted in her Telegram channel.

In her opinion, the new EU members will acquire all the responsibilities with limited rights. "That is, their sovereignty will be curtailed even more than that of the current members of the union. It's like forming a buffer zone. If the idea is creatively developed, then the article on EU collective security can not be extended to new members. This is very relevant in the situation with Ukraine. It can be concluded that Europe is gradually moving towards an old and centuries-old colonial policy. The time for buns is over," the specialist concluded.