In the Prague way: opponents of military aid to Ukraine won the elections in the Czech Republic

The opposition ANO party led by Andrei Babis won the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic with 34.67% of the vote. The ruling coalition "Together", which holds anti-Russian positions, received 23.27% of support, its leader and Prime Minister Petr Fiala admitted defeat. Andrei Babish has already stated that he intends to form a government with the support of the right-wing parties Freedom and Direct Democracy and Motorists for Themselves. Under the new government, Prague is likely to abandon active military support for Ukraine and retreat from the harsh Russophobic rhetoric that was characteristic of the former cabinet. Although a breakthrough in relations with Russia should not be expected from the new authorities, analysts say.

The results of the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic

The opposition ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrei Babis, won the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic. She scored 34.67% of the votes after counting 99.6% of the ballots. In second place was the ruling alliance "Together" of Prime Minister Petr Fiala with 23.37% of support. At the same time, compared to the previous elections, "Together" lost only 4% of the vote, however, the ANO gained almost 8%. Petr Fiala has already congratulated his opponent on his victory, admitting defeat.

Since neither of the two leading political forces has won an absolute majority, the fate of the next government will be decided by the small parties. The liberal movement "Elders and Independents" came in third place, with just over 11% of the vote. This is followed by the Pirate Party of the Czech Republic with 8.87% support. The Eurosceptics from Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) have 7.81%. And the main surprise of the election was the passage of the right-wing party "Motorists for Themselves" to parliament, it was supported by 6.78% of voters. But the left-wing "Enough is enough!" could not overcome the 5% barrier.

It is important that the elections came with a record turnout since the beginning of the 21st century. According to preliminary estimates alone, it was almost 69%, and the final figure could be even higher. All political forces emphasized the importance of this election campaign. Just a few days before the election, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that the vote would determine "whether the republic will remain part of the West or will drift to the East."

Czech citizens showed their dissatisfaction with the Russophobic policy of the current Cabinet of Ministers, which focused on supporting Ukraine instead of solving internal problems, by high turnout and voting for the ANO party. Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia about this.

— A significant element of this discontent was the radical anti-Russian policy of the current government of Fiala. In this regard, Andrei Babis is a fairly understandable and good alternative for Czech voters," the expert emphasized.

Andrei Babis himself is not a new face for Czech politics. The billionaire and founder of Agrofert holding entered politics in 2011, founding the ANO 2011 party to "fight corruption and other evils of the political system." From 2017 to 2021, he served as Prime Minister. After failing to win the election, he resigned, and then unsuccessfully ran for president in 2023. Now he has the opportunity to return to power, for which he has already earned the nickname "Czech Trump" in the media.

In his victory speech to supporters, Andrei Babis said he would not prevent Czech companies from exporting weapons to Ukraine. However, the money from the state budget should go to the needs of the citizens of the Czech Republic itself, and not Ukraine, the politician noted.

— If someone earns $30 billion at the expense of Ukraine, we don't like it. I have a different opinion on this, we will definitely figure it out," Babish said.

The ANO leader drew attention to the fact that the current Czech government refuses to pay for cancer drugs and care benefits, but finds money for Ukraine.

— We will definitely give this money to the citizens of the Czech Republic. We ran for the citizens of the Czech Republic, and we will fulfill the program for our people. This government, which is in power, has forgotten about them and for four years has been talking only about [the fighting] and Ukraine," Babish said.

The billionaire also walked around the EU. In his opinion, "Europe is no longer incompetent, no longer competitive — energy prices are too high, and so on." But the future Czech leader will obviously listen to Donald Trump.

The Czech Republic is a parliamentary republic in which the government depends on the support of the majority in parliament. The Prime Minister coordinates the work of the Cabinet and also represents the country in the international arena. The President of the Czech Republic proposes the candidacy of the head of government, usually he gives the right to form the cabinet to the leader of the winning party. The anti-Russian Peter Pavel, formerly chairman of the NATO Military Committee, has held the presidential post since 2023.

Andrei Babish has already stated that for now he expects to form a one-party government with the support of the Avtomobilists and Freedom and Direct Democracy. According to preliminary estimates, such a coalition could win 109 seats with 101 required.

The result of the ANO party slightly exceeded expectations, but potential coalition partners did not perform so well, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Central and Eastern European Studies Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. For example, the Freedom and Direct Democracy party scored less than in 2021. Therefore, the most likely option is a three—party coalition of the ANO with the SPD and the Avtomobilists.

— However, this complicates the coalition negotiations, since we will have to negotiate with the two parties, and they differ slightly in their programs, and therefore we will have to look for some compromises. And perhaps the time for coalition negotiations will be delayed," the expert believes.

At the same time, Mikhail Vedernikov considers Babish's failure to enter parliament to be a good outcome for the Enough! party, since their election program was very different. Motorists for Themselves and the SPD are right—wing parties, and the ANO has common ground with them.

How will Prague's relations with Moscow and Kiev change?

Foreign policy has become a key topic of the election campaign in the Czech Republic. The current government has made the confrontation with Russia the basis of its foreign policy. Prague has become one of the main sponsors of Ukraine in Europe: it organized the "shell initiative", providing 1.5 million ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024 alone.

Prague regularly supports anti-Russian sanctions, and in April the country also stopped buying oil from Russia via the Druzhba oil pipeline. And since September 30, the Czech Republic has closed visa centers in the Russian Federation, and Prague has not issued a tourist Schengen to Russians since 2022. On the same day, the Czech Republic banned Russian diplomats and holders of official passports from entering the country without accreditation.

In its election program, the ANO party emphasizes that it intends to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy and not blindly follow orders from Brussels. Andrei Babish has already promised to put an end to the initiative to purchase shells for Ukraine, and also intends to support diplomatic steps to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. The opposition also plans to review the bloated military expenditures of the current government, for example, the contract for the purchase of F-35 fighter jets from the United States.

"If the SPD movement turns out to be in the future government, then Andrei Babish will have to stop military supplies to Ukraine, which were under the government of Fiala,— Mikhail Vedernikov believes.

At the same time, a breakthrough in relations between Prague and Moscow should not be expected under the new government, Russia is more likely to receive a neutral-minded country, the political scientist noted. Andrei Babish is unlikely to make contacts with the Russian authorities, as did Robert Fico, who attended the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9.

Vladimir Shapovalov also believes that we can expect the Czech Republic to abandon its pronounced anti-Russian policy and cease its "shell initiative." In his opinion, Prague will switch to a policy of smoothing out the conflict and further normalizing relations with Russia.

It is noteworthy that the ANO party, along with Orban's Fidesz, is part of the Patriots for Europe faction of Eurosceptics and right-wing parties of the European Parliament. Therefore, Andrei Babis will become more independent in his relations with the EU, but one should not expect him to join the union of the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia. The billionaire is much more closely connected with Brussels, besides, it is important to take into account the factor of the pro-European-minded President Peter Pavel.