Nuclear announcement: The United States leaves a window for dialogue on START-3

Donald Trump's harsh statements at the session of the UN General Assembly worsened the conditions for dialogue between Russia and the United States, but will not affect contacts on strategic stability, experts say. In his speech, the American president again drew attention to the problem of nuclear weapons. Russia is still ready to make voluntary commitments if the United States undertakes the same, Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma's international Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. Washington's response will show whether the Trump administration is really seeking to normalize relations with Moscow, experts say. But the United States has reasons to delay: most of its weapons program goes beyond START-3. This applies, among other things, to the creation of the Golden Dome missile defense system. Where the dialogue on strategic stability can begin is in the Izvestia article.

How will Trump's statements affect Putin's START-3 proposal

Russia is waiting for the US reaction to the proposals for a treaty on measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START, or START-3).

— President Putin understands very well the importance of this document for global stability and security, so no one demanded anything from us here. This is precisely a gesture of goodwill on Putin's part," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

There has been no official response from Washington yet. The White House only noted that Donald Trump had read the statement of the Russian president. The Russian Federation is ready to adhere to the restrictions on the START Treaty for a year after its expiration on February 5, 2026, Vladimir Putin said on September 22 at an operational meeting with members of the Security Council.

Missile proposal: Russia is ready to comply with START-3 restrictions for another year

Will the dialogue with the United States on strategic stability resume

So far, only Daryl Kimball, Executive director of the American Arms Control Association, has spoken on the topic. According to him, such a proposal is a positive step that will help prevent an arms race.

Donald Trump's speech at the session of the UN General Assembly seemed to confuse all the cards. At first, he stated that he was working to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, and noted good relations with the Russian president, which would seem to be a positive signal for a dialogue on strategic stability. However, after the meeting with Vladimir Zelensky, the rhetoric of the US president changed dramatically. According to Trump, Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is able to regain its original borders, while Russia has turned out to be a "paper tiger."

In addition, the US president, responding to a provocative question from journalists, gave NATO the "green light" to shoot down Russian planes if they violate the alliance's airspace. Earlier, Estonia accused Russia of having three MiG-31s crossing its border.

Donald Trump also drew attention to the problem of nuclear weapons.

— I'm looking at a weapon that's so powerful that we'll just never be able to use it. If we ever use it, the world could literally come to an end. There will be no United Nations. There will be nothing at all," Trump said.

Moscow believes that the ambiguous speech of the US president does not mean a rejection of dialogue, including on the START Treaty.

"Apparently, Zelensky did not just let President Trump formulate some kind of position in response to this initiative of President Putin," Dmitry Peskov commented on the words of the American leader.

Anyway, the topic of the START Treaty was already on the agenda of the dialogue between the two presidents, Peskov confirmed. Moreover, Washington's changing rhetoric should not affect Moscow's decision on such an important issue.

— Trump has repeatedly changed his position and performed 180-degree somersaults in relation to his initial opinion. The initiative of the Russian president to actually extend the START Treaty for a year is a very specific proposal that requires a very specific reaction from the American side. Russia is ready to make voluntary commitments if the United States makes the same commitments. And this was clearly stated by Vladimir Putin. This is an important issue concerning strategic stability and security on the planet," Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

There is no direct connection between Trump's bellicose statements and the dialogue on strategic stability, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, tells Izvestia.

— First of all, there was no specific response to the Russian initiative, and at the same time, besides a number of strange statements, Donald Trump called the problem of nuclear weapons serious. But, of course, this may slightly undermine the atmosphere of the dialogue. Although, again, I would not overestimate the importance of these rhetorical exercises of the American leadership," the expert said.

Lively conversation: Putin launched preparations for a new direct line

What new instructions did the President give following the meeting with the government?

Moreover, Trump has officially left a window for negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict. In his usual manner, he set a deadline again — this time in a month — in order to make some tangible progress. Later, the situation with the response to incidents on the borders of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance became clearer. The United States will not use its troops in the conflict in Ukraine under any circumstances, said the head of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent.

President Trump's speech, apparently, was mainly an expression of discontent and just an attempt to declare, and possibly confirm, American dominance and importance on the world stage, Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia.

— Washington's response will show whether the Trump administration really seeks to normalize relations with Moscow. Trump may agree to an extension of the START, even despite the current impossibility of any negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. In the end, the United States and the USSR managed to create an entire arms control system by waging a series of proxy wars against each other, in particular in Vietnam (USA) and Afghanistan (USSR)," said Jim Jatras, an ex-adviser to the Republican Party.

And now the issues of strategic stability are the basis of the dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States. Despite the importance of other areas, Moscow and Washington, as well as other parties, primarily paid attention to how the dialogue on armaments was going. If there is progress on issues of strategic stability, then there will be a prospect of discussing issues of regional stability and it will be possible to gradually expand this agenda, said RIAC expert Andrei Kortunov.

At the same time, American experts agree that Trump's changed rhetoric, at least for now, still distances Moscow and Washington from further normalization of personal relations.

What will happen to strategic stability

As for exclusively strategic stability, Russia's compliance with the START Treaty restrictions may trigger consultations on new binding agreements, Dmitry Stefanovich said. The restrictions are likely to be respected by the Russian side, even if the American side does not fully comply with the agreements, the expert believes. At the same time, Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia is ready to respond to any strategic threats through the use of military-technical measures.

— We will proceed from the fact that the practical implementation of such destabilizing actions can nullify our side's efforts to maintain the status quo in the field of strategic offensive arms. We will react accordingly," the president said.

However, even if the United States agrees to Russia's proposal to comply with the restrictions for another year, Prague 2.0 is still a long way off. Even the scope of a possible document is unclear, so now we can only talk about synchronizing voluntary unilateral restrictions, the expert believes.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) predicted a new nuclear arms race in the summer of 2025. According to him, about 90% of all nuclear weapons and all decommissioned warheads fall on Russia and the United States — 4,309 and 3,700 in military stocks, respectively. It would be wise for the United States to accept Russia's proposal, since such a decision would allow all parties to avoid an expensive arms race and keep the window open for negotiations on a new agreement, HSE analyst Tigran Meloyan believes.

— If Moscow and Washington lose the current START Treaty, then after some time the overall balance of nuclear and non-nuclear forces may be changed. And it's not just about the United States and Russia. Other nuclear powers, such as France and the United Kingdom, will also be forced to join the arms race," he noted.

According to Izvestia, France and the United Kingdom also hope to extend START-3 or even conclude a new agreement. According to SIPRI, by 2024, the UK had 225 warheads, of which 129 were deployed, France had 290, of which 280 were deployed. After suspending participation in the START Treaty, Vladimir Putin made it clear that in order to resume participation, it is necessary to understand how to take into account the combined strike potential of NATO.

— Of course, in the general dialogue on strategic stability, it is important to take into account the arsenals of all official members of the "nuclear club" — permanent members of the UN Security Council. Moreover, when it comes to Russia or China, the representatives of the United States discount the combined potential of Great Britain and France. Russia is always ready for dialogue based on the principles of equal and indivisible security. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's statement is clear evidence that our country is committed to peace and stability on the planet, Leonid Slutsky told Izvestia.

Turning point: The United States has escalated its relations with Russia

Why has Washington changed its rhetoric towards Moscow

By the way, China has at least 600 nuclear warheads, and it is increasing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country (by about 100 units per year from 2023). Against this background, Trump wanted to discuss the renunciation of nuclear weapons with both Moscow and Beijing. And one of the reasons why Trump withdrew the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 2019 was that the United States could not insist on China's inclusion in it, the expert community believes.

— There is an understanding in the United States that Russia cannot influence China in any way. Similarly, the Russian Federation understands that the United States cannot influence the United Kingdom and France in any way, although, of course, both the British and French arsenals have a technological relationship with the American one. In connection with this coordination, they also realize that one thing does not work well without the other, and if you want to engage in nuclear deterrence, then you need to take arms control no less seriously," says Dmitry Stefanovich.

At the same time, the United States may delay responding to the extension of the START Treaty for one less obvious reason. Most of their weapons program already goes beyond the scope of the treaty, for example, the future of the Golden Dome missile defense system, American expert Thomas Graham noted in an interview with Izvestia. The program, launched by President Reagan 40 years ago, is aimed at protecting the North American continent from ballistic, hypersonic and cruise missiles, including nuclear ones, as well as drones. Thus, Trump hopes to completely eliminate the missile threat to the United States. At the same time, it will be very difficult to comply with the central restrictions on the START Treaty.

Washington could hypothetically circumvent compliance with the START treaty, and as if legally, Alexei Zhuravlev, first deputy chairman of the Defense Committee, tells Izvestia.

— Our experts were periodically not allowed to visit American facilities, they were led by the nose, trying to wishful thinking. There are indeed quite a lot of ways to circumvent the legal terms of the START treaty, and our unscrupulous counterparts have successfully used this," he noted.

However, on September 22, it was no coincidence that Vladimir Putin instructed relevant agencies to closely monitor plans to build up strategic components in the US missile defense system, because the effectiveness of Moscow's proposal depends on this.