Flight weather: what Erdogan will discuss with Trump at a meeting in New York
Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with US President Donald Trump on September 25 for the first time after a six-year hiatus. The main topics of the talks to be held at the White House will be Turkey's return to the F-35 fifth-generation fighter program, from which Ankara was excluded about six years ago due to the purchase of S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia, as well as trade deals. How Ankara can deal with the Russian air defense systems and what to expect from these negotiations is in the Izvestia article.
To improve relations: what the United States and Turkey are agreeing on
The heads of the United States and Turkey will meet for the first time after a six-year break. Erdogan will come to the White House to discuss many issues, the main of which are the supply of F-35 and F-16.
"I am pleased to welcome Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White House on September 25. We are working with him on a variety of trade and military deals, including a large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a major deal on F-16 [fighter jets], as well as on continuing negotiations on the F—35, which we expect to end positively," the American leader Donald Trump wrote on his Truth social network. Social, describing his relationship with Erdogan as "very good."
US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a press conference in the East Room of the White House. The year 2019
The Turkish president, speaking on Fox News, also said that the parties would discuss the transfer of American F-35 fighter jets to the republic, since Ankara "paid for them, but did not receive them."
This visit of the head of the Turkish Republic to Washington will be the first after Trump's return. During his first term, the leaders met twice at the White House.
According to a source in Turkish diplomatic circles, Ankara, seeking to normalize relations with Washington, actively lobbied for this meeting. The fact that Turkey is serious is evidenced by the fact that a couple of days before the summit, the country lifted additional tariffs on a number of goods from the United States, which were introduced in response to American measures. Among them are cars, fruits, rice, tobacco, alcohol, solid fuels and chemical products.
The abolition of duties, as well as the agreement on the supply of about 70 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States by BOTAŞ through the Mercuria gas pipeline within 20 years, Trump can claim as a trade victory, experts say.
Mutually beneficial arrangements
Relations between the two countries deteriorated markedly in 2019, when Turkey came under the law on countering America's Enemies through Sanctions (CAATSA) due to the purchase of four S-400 Triumph from the Russian Federation. Ankara, which also paid for the first batch of American aircraft, was excluded from the F-35 program.
In early September, a number of Turkish media reported that Russia was allegedly considering the possibility of buying back the S-400, since "it is technically impossible to integrate Russian-made air defense systems into Turkey's air umbrella, which operates according to the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance." However, the Turkish Defense Ministry denied this information.
At the same time, Bloomberg reports that Turkey may offer an alternative — to get the United States to amend CAATSA in order to withdraw the republic from "airplane sanctions." In return, Ankara is ready to offer Washington a trade deal and buy hundreds of Boeing Co. airliners. and Lockheed Martin Corp. fighter jets. — with the agreement that some parts should be made in Turkey.
The amount of the deal has not been announced, but it may exceed $10 billion. Negotiations on the sale of aircraft between Turkish Airlines and Boeing have been going on for a long time. According to Trump's statement, an agreement on this issue will be announced during the meeting of the presidents.
"Resolving the dispute over the Russian S-400 missiles through compromise could lead to an unprecedented increase in defense industry cooperation between the long-time allies," writes Bloomberg. The authors of the publication believe that in the future, the United States will also allow the activities of 10 Turkish companies that manufacture parts for the F-35.
In addition, at the upcoming meeting at the White House, the parties may discuss not only aviation contracts, but also, according to the Turkish newspaper Sözcü, the extraction of rare earths from the Beylikov area in the province of Eskisehir. We are talking about a deposit with reserves of about 694 million tons, which Washington calls strategic: it can reduce the dependence of the United States on supplies from China, a key player in the rare element market.
For Turkey, one of the most important points of Erdogan's meeting with Trump is the lifting of sanctions for the defense industry imposed by the American leader during his first presidential term.
What do the experts think
The priorities of the meeting between the two leaders at the White House will be the lifting of sanctions against the defense industry and the fulfillment of Turkey's demands, in particular regarding F-35 fighter jets, a source in the Turkish delegation told Izvestia.
— It is expected that the sale of a significant number of Boeing passenger aircraft will also be discussed. In addition, the parties will discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip, Ukraine and Syria," the diplomat said.
Vladimir Avatkov, Head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, Doctor of Political Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that relations with the United States are extremely important for Turkey.
— Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and is one of the few effective players besides the United States in the Western camp. But at the same time, she has close relations with Russia, and she does not join the illegal anti—Russian Western sanctions," the Turkologist believes.
According to the political scientist, Ankara and Washington are important to each other.
— The Americans are obviously doing everything to win the Turkish Republic over to their side. And despite the working relationship between Erdogan and Trump, it was the American leader who imposed sanctions on Turkey. These restrictions are still in effect today, and Washington is putting tremendous pressure on Ankara," the expert stressed.
The analyst is sure that this is being done because the Americans either need to completely subjugate Turkey or make it part of the "arc of instability."
— As an independent and strong player, Turkey is not needed by the United States. At the same time, they will be ready to put up with it as long as it at least partially fulfills the functions imposed on it, including undermining Russia's efforts in the Post—Soviet East and South, that is, in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Avatkov believes.
The political scientist stressed that, given Trump's weak predictability, there can be no clear expectations from the leaders' meeting.
— It will be quite a serious, if not to say, fateful meeting. Not only the relations between the two countries are at stake, but also the future of Turkey itself. Despite the pressure, Ankara has not yet abandoned the S-400, but at the same time it does not want to reduce its cooperation with the United States, the expert concludes.
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