Reference year: the resignation of the French government will strengthen the position of supporters of dialogue with the Russian Federation

The political crisis is intensifying in France: on September 8, parliament voted to dismiss the government, just nine months after the previous one left. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou himself triggered the vote of confidence mechanism, trying to gain support for his economic policy and the draft budget for 2026, which involves reducing social and military spending. President Emmanuel Macron's failure to vote confidence in the government leads to a political impasse: it will be difficult for him to form a new cabinet, and at the same time he cannot dissolve parliament, as this, according to experts, will strengthen the position of the National Unification Party, which advocates dialogue with Moscow. Why the French are dissatisfied with the policy of the authorities and what is the reason for the crisis with the approval of the country's budget — in the Izvestia article.

The resignation of the fourth government in two years

France is plunging into a political crisis. On September 8, a vote of confidence was held for the fourth government in less than two years. 364 deputies supported the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers, 194 voted against. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will hand over his resignation to Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday morning. It is noteworthy that he initiated the vote himself after the failure of the discussion of the country's budget for 2026.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers a statement on the general policy on the budget issue before the debate and vote of confidence at the extraordinary session of the National Assembly in Paris on September 8.

Photo: REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

According to calculations by the LCP media platform, which conducted estimates before the vote, the right-wing parties represented by the National Union and the Republicans, as well as the entire left bloc, should have voted against the government. Bayrou's cabinet was planned to support Renaissance (Macron's party), the Democratic Movement and Horizons. The advantage was on the side of the opposition and no miracle happened.

There is no agreement among the comrades: France is quarreling with its G7 allies

Serious disagreements have arisen in the "big Seven"

Simultaneously with the political crisis in France, there is also an economic crisis. Tax revenues to the budget are growing more slowly than expected, and government spending, in particular on the army, is increasing. The country's budget deficit in 2024 reached 5.8% of GDP, which is almost twice the 3% norm set by the European Union. In addition, France is on the verge of a massive debt crisis. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, its national debt amounted to €3.3 trillion, or 114% of GDP.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

According to L'Express, the budget deficit in France is growing faster than in most other EU countries. When drawing up the 2026 budget, the Bayrou government tried to reduce it by €44 billion. First of all, by limiting the indexation of pensions and benefits, as well as canceling two public holidays — Easter Monday and May 8.

At the same time, spending on the army was not reduced: in 2026, it is planned to spend 3.5 billion euros more on it than a year earlier, and in 2027, another 3 billion euros will be added to the costs. Military support to Ukraine is not going to be reduced either. The left and right factions of parliament opposed such dubious initiatives, which eventually led to the resignation of Bayrou's cabinet.

Consequences of the resignation of the French government

The situation is difficult for Emmanuel Macron. According to September polls, only 17% of the country's population trusts the country's president, which is a historic low. A Toluna Harris Interactive poll conducted in August showed that 68% of French people opposed a vote of confidence in the government, 56% considered it necessary to dissolve the Cabinet of Ministers if it did not receive support during the vote. President Macron has the option not to dismiss the government, but to dissolve parliament, but BFMTV reported that in this case, in early elections, the main opponents of the current government, the National Association, could gain 33% of the vote. And another 26% is the opposition left-wing alliance "New Popular Front".

Similar sentiments among voters were recorded a year ago during the European Parliament elections, when the National Union received about 32% of the vote, while Macron's camp (which includes Vozrozhdenie, the Democratic Movement and Horizons) received only about 15%. Then the French leader dissolved the National Assembly of the country in order to "clarify the situation" with the mandates, but his position in parliament did not improve after the early elections. As a result, the presidential camp is in third place in popularity among voters.

French President Emmanuel Macron

Photo: Philippe Magoni/Pool via REUTERS

After the resignation of the government, Macron, according to the constitution, must appoint a new prime minister. There is no definite deadline, but the longer he forms a government, the greater the political costs for him. The French leader is currently ruling out the possibility of dissolving parliament.

Renaissance Decadence: support for Macron and Bayrou has dropped to a minimum

The current president and Prime Minister are once again approaching a historic anti-record

Political developments

According to experts, Macron may form an alliance with the Socialist Party, which has 66 seats in parliament, to form a new government. Olivier Faure, the party's first secretary, said he was ready to take over after Bayrou's departure.

However, the chances of such a scenario are extremely low, since the "Republicans" in parliament will not support the Socialist prime minister, French political analyst Herve Juvin told Izvestia. Macron faces a difficult task: he will need an alliance of moderate conservatives, centrists and socialists, but in the current circumstances it will be very difficult to achieve such an alliance, the political scientist is sure.

Meeting of questions to the government in the National Assembly — French deputy and Secretary General of the French Socialist Party Olivier Faure and French deputy and chairman of the parliamentary faction of the Socialist Party Boris Vallaud

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Alexis Sciard

The French parliament is completely incompetent, as it is divided into three blocs of parties that "hate" each other, political analyst Sergei Fedorov believes. In his opinion, the only option available to Macron in the current situation remains the dissolution of the National Assembly, but even this will not change the situation, since the winners will be the "National Union" of Jordan Bardella, Macron's opponent.

After the failure of the vote of confidence in the government, the French leader himself is not obliged to resign and can hold his post until April 2027. According to the expert, it is hypothetically possible to launch the procedure for his removal from power without valid reasons in the form of violations of the law, but it is too difficult due to the country's constitutional mechanisms.

Photo: REUTERS/Sofiia Gatilova

— I am afraid that the path that many other governments turned to in the crisis will be chosen: to seek a solution to the internal problem by exaggerating the external threat. I see Macron's temptation to involve France in the conflict in Ukraine against Russia in order to get out of the political crisis, for which he is largely responsible, and from which he has no chance of emerging victorious, believes Herve Juvin.

He also called the proposal to reduce public holidays in France "incredible" in order to save the budget, while the government is committed to buying weapons for Ukraine from the United States for tens of billions of dollars.