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- Time is for money: new Central Bank rules will cool the lending market by 10-25% from September
Time is for money: new Central Bank rules will cool the lending market by 10-25% from September
Access to loans will become noticeably more difficult for Russians starting on September 1, when a cooling—off period will begin in Russia. For example, when applying for loans in the amount of 200 thousand rubles or more, the money will be received only after two days. You will also have to wait to increase the credit card limit. The authorities say they are introducing new measures to combat fraud. However, another goal may be to slow down the pace of loan issuance against the background of a decrease in the key rate, experts say. The new rules will cool the market by an average of 10-25%. Whether people will start contacting MFIs or illegal lenders more often due to the difficulty of accessing borrowed funds is in the Izvestia article.
Why should the Central Bank reduce the pace of lending to citizens
The cooling-off period for consumer loans and borrowings in Russia will start on September 1. Now loans from 50 thousand to 200 thousand rubles will be available only four hours after signing the contract, and loans above this limit — after 48 hours. The rules also apply to attempts to increase the credit card limit. While the freeze is in effect, a person has the right to refuse borrowed money.
The new rules will not apply to mortgages, car loans and educational loans, in which money is sent to a legal entity. Also, the deferral will not affect the refinancing of debts and loans that are processed with the participation of a co-borrower, guarantors or a trusted person.
The regulator reports that the innovation is designed to protect citizens from obtaining loans and loans under the influence of fraudsters. Many attackers use emotional pressure, demanding urgent loan processing under various pretexts. The cooling-off period will help to avoid rash steps that can lead to damage, explained Alexey Lossan, an analyst at the financial marketplace Compare.
Despite the fact that the initiative is formally positioned as protection against cybercriminals, it will also cool the lending market, experts interviewed by Izvestia pointed out.
This measure is being introduced just against the background of the beginning of a cycle to reduce monetary policy by the regulator. In July, he lowered the key by 1 percentage point, and in July — by another 2 percentage points, to 18%. Russians increased their credit appetites in July: the total amount of loans increased by 175 billion rubles. This is a record growth rate since September 2024. The surge occurred despite the still extremely high rates in banks — for consumer loans they were about 33%.
In an environment where there is a surge in lending activity after the Central Bank's rate cut, the introduction of a cooling-off period reduces the number of impulsive borrowings and helps limit overheating, added Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In addition, according to him, for some customers who expected instant loans in force majeure situations, the delay may be perceived as a limitation.
The measure could potentially reduce the volume of consumer loans by 15-25%, independent expert Andrei Barkhota predicted. Nevertheless, as interest rates decrease, the demand for financing will increase, the expert noted.
— The cooling-off period can scare off 10-15% of impulsive borrowers, especially for loans of 50-200 thousand rubles, where urgency is critical. This is confirmed by the experience of introducing a self—lock on loans since February of this year, which reduced applications by 5-7% in the microloan segment," admitted Vladimir Chernov.
He added that for loans over 200 thousand rubles, the reduction will be around 5-10%, since such loans are less often issued "on the move."
The exact effect depends on the market reaction, but we can assume a decrease in lending activity by about 10-15%, concluded Alexey Lossan from Compare.
Will Russians start turning to black creditors
Against the background of the introduction of new rules, some borrowers may also begin to "break down" their needs into several small loans, especially in the segment of up to 50 thousand rubles, for which there are no restrictions. This could boost demand for microloans, warned Vladimir Chernov. Moreover, for a small proportion of citizens who need money urgently and cannot wait 48 hours, there is a risk of going to "gray" and illegal creditors, he added.
Igor Dodonov, an analyst at FG Finam, also does not exclude the risk of clients turning to "black" creditors. They, in turn, are ready to lend money to any client, regardless of the level of his workload. Most often, funds are secured against property. Unlike legal players, such lenders charge extremely high interest rates, agree to issue loans without documents, can steal personal data, and resort to illegal debt collection methods.
On the other hand, the innovation can still help in the fight against fraud. According to Vladimir Chernov's estimates, the cooling-off period can reduce the number of such cases by 15-20%, since victims will have time to notice suspicious transactions and block them, and together with the possibility of installing a self-lock in effect from February, the total number of such precedents may decrease by 20-30%, he admitted.
All other things being equal, people will not immediately get used to the new order, it will cause a certain drop in credit activity among fellow citizens, Fyodor Sidorov summed up. The adaptation period may take several months, added the Vice President for Information Security at Dom Bank.Russian Federation" Dmitry Nikishov.
The lack of instant access to loans, changes in the use of familiar services and other measures being prepared to counter fraud also act as a barrier for customers, Vladimir Chernov noted. According to him, they can slow down the development of the financial system, because services stop being provided instantly.
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