Scoring PAS: how Moldova is preparing for the decisive elections
Moldova has one month left before the most important parliamentary elections. The ruling PAS party in the country is trying its best to stay in power. Chisinau has become a place of pilgrimage for European leaders, the extradition of controversial oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc to his homeland is in the final stages, and traditional manipulations with polling stations have not gone away. Izvestia reviews the situation in the republic ahead of the vote.
The election campaign has begun in the country
The election campaign officially started in Moldova on August 29. In a month, parliamentary elections will be held in the country, which will determine the configuration of power for the next four years. I must say that in the republic it is the legislative assembly that has the maximum power, since it is it that adopts or rejects laws, as well as forms the government.
The current ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party is in a difficult position. The fact is that the socio-economic indicators in the country are extremely sad. According to former Prime Minister Vlad Filat, over the past four years, accumulated inflation has reached 66%, energy tariffs have increased sixfold, and the national debt has increased to $7.8 billion. The outflow of the population continues: 90 people leave the country every day.
In such circumstances, the ruling party relies on foreign policy issues. The main thesis is that Moldova can become an EU member only under the leadership of PAS. At the same time, the Europeans do not hesitate to publicly support Maya Sandu and her party. So, on August 27, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk visited Chisinau, where they participated in the celebrations on the occasion of Moldova's Independence Day.
Romanian President Nicusor Dan is expected to arrive in the Moldovan capital on August 31. He will be the main guest at the Romanian language festival. Apparently, the main gift is still ahead. Politico, citing its sources, writes that a "negotiation cluster" may be opened in Brussels in the coming days or weeks, which will speed up the consideration of the Moldovan application for EU membership.
At the same time, the opposition says that the Europeans are brazenly interfering in the Moldovan elections. "Imagine if Putin or Lukashenko had come to Independence Day. Such a fuss would have been made, including European capitals. And they can cross all red lines to support their puppets, piglets and globalists here," said former President Igor Dodon.
The authorities are counting on the help of the Diaspora
Another important pre—election plot is the extradition to Moldova of the oligarch, the former shadow master of the country Vlad Plahotniuc, who has become a symbol of dubious financial schemes. At the end of July, he was detained in Greece, and on August 28, the Athens Court of Appeal issued a decision to expel the man to his homeland.
It is possible that the extradition process will be completed just before the elections, which will be a good information opportunity for the ruling party, which will have the opportunity to talk about the successful fight against corruption. Apparently, an appropriate information support for this story is being prepared. It is known that the government of the country bought the rights to the film "The Block", which just talks about the period of the oligarch's participation in the political life of the country.
Finally, the manipulation of polling stations, which is already familiar to Moldovan politics, has not gone away. According to the CEC, only two polling stations will open in Russia on September 28, although hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens live and work in the country. Representatives of the diaspora held a picket outside the embassy in Moscow, and also collected 85,000 signatures on an appeal demanding to improve the situation, but there was no reaction from the election commission.
In Transnistria, where there are many pro-Russian voters, only 12 polling stations will be opened, although there used to be three times as many. At the same time, in Western countries, the number of voting points, on the contrary, will increase. So, in Italy there were 60 polling stations in the last election, now there are 73, in Germany an increase from 26 to 36, in France from 20 to 26, in Romania from 16 to 23, in the USA from 16 to 22. At the same time, in ten Western countries it is also allowed to vote by mail — there is no such possibility anywhere else.
The opposition also says that with the approaching elections in Moldova, direct repression is intensifying. The most scandalous episode in this sense was the verdict of Gagauz Bashkan Evgenia Gutsul, who was sent to a penal colony for seven years on charges of illegally financing a political party. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president, called the verdict an example of a politically motivated decision.
The head of Gagauzia Evgenia Gutsul at the court session of the Buyukan sector in Chisinau
In addition, the courts have banned the activities of four parties that are part of the opposition bloc "Victory". Numerous attempts to challenge the decision failed, and on August 26, the country's Supreme Judicial Chamber upheld the verdict, as street protests failed. Moreover, in mid-August, security forces destroyed an opposition tent city in the center of Chisinau.
Finally, the country's authorities are concentrating the levers of control in their hands as much as possible. In mid-August, the Center for Combating Disinformation became directly subordinate to Maya Sandu. A new composition of the Constitutional Court has also been appointed: functionaries who are somehow connected with the current authorities have become judges. For example, Sergiu Litvinenko, a former vice—chairman of the ruling party, became one of the members of the Constitutional Court.
With all the many efforts, however, PAS's position still looks very precarious. One of the opinion polls shows that the rating of Sandu's party is 33%, the left—wing bloc is about 30%, and the centrist Alternative bloc and the populist Our Party are also overcoming the entry barrier. If the result is really like this, then the opposition will be able to form a coalition on its own, leaving Sandu's team behind.
What the experts say
Moldovan political analyst Alexander Korinenko emphasizes that the election campaign starts in an atmosphere of fear and pressure on the opposition.
Supporters of the Shor party protest in Chisinau over the condemnation of the Bashkan of Gagauzia
— The ruling party has taken many punitive measures. Someone was kicked out of the election race, someone was imprisoned, and street protests were dispersed by force. Everything happens in conditions of an information blockade, when opposition parties do not have access to television. The ruling team controls all three branches of government today, and a pocket Constitutional Court has just been appointed," he explains.
According to him, the PAS has a ceiling of 30% of votes inside Moldova, but there are high hopes for the mobilization of the diaspora.
— In this matter, however, not everything is so simple. There are also many dissatisfied Moldovan migrants, besides, people abroad traditionally sway only towards the second round, while parliamentary elections will be held in one round. In turn, the apathy of the population is a big problem for the opposition, many do not believe that anything can be changed at the elections. Opponents of the authorities have 30 days to convince these people,— says Korinenko.
Moldovan political analyst Corneliu Ciurea believes that surprises are possible during the election campaign. According to him, the CEC may still suspend some of the candidates, and some spoiler associations may show themselves more clearly.
— The main question is whether someone will get more than 50% to form a mono—majority. I believe that neither the PAS nor the left-wing bloc will do this. Accordingly, after the elections, we will talk about creating a coalition. So far, it seems that the opposition has a better chance of success on this issue, because second-order associations like "Our Party" and "Alternative" are also conditionally oppositional. In reality, Sandu's team can lure them away by offering them good conditions and positions in the government. Thus, everything will depend on the bargaining after the elections," he says.
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