Set exchange rate: what will happen to the ruble after August 15
The ruble continues to remain relatively strong, and Bank of America even recognized it as the most successful currency in the first half of 2025. Izvestia found out what caused such dynamics, what values we will see by the end of the year, what will continue to affect the ruble and where the course may turn after the meeting between Putin and Trump.
High rates and lower imports
This year, the ruble has grown by more than 40% against the dollar and has become the "most successful" currency in the world, Bank of America said. At the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the dollar was worth more than 100 rubles, by July it had fallen below 80 and is still holding positions.
Such dynamics was caused by a complex of factors. First, the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
The high key rate during the first half of the year restrained domestic demand for imports and stimulated the sale of export earnings. This ensured a stable inflow of foreign currency into the domestic market and the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, says Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department.
A long period of high interest rates sharply reduced lending, and many imported goods (cars, electronics) were sold on credit. Because of this, the demand for such goods has fallen and for the currency, respectively, too. This has become the main factor in the strengthening of the ruble in 2025, adds Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets.
Currency control
Strict restrictions on the foreign exchange market also played a role, reducing the supply of foreign currency and increasing demand for the ruble. High yields on ruble-denominated assets attracted investors.
Stable demand for the ruble was also formed due to the requirements for large Russian exporters to return income in foreign currency and convert it into rubles. By law, they must sell at least 40% of foreign exchange earnings, but now many large companies sell 60-70%.
— Exporters actively sold foreign exchange earnings, while importers significantly reduced purchases of foreign products in 2025, creating a steady surplus of foreign currency supply. Restrictions on capital outflow have further strengthened the Russian foreign exchange market," says Viktor Shakhurin, Chief Operating Officer of AVI Capital.
Dollar weakening and risk mitigation
The ruble was also supported by the weakening of the dollar on world markets due to trade wars and tariffs imposed by Trump. The US currency is facing a crisis of confidence.
— Trade wars have negatively affected the dollar index (DXY). Since the beginning of 2025, the dollar has fallen in price by 10% against world currencies. Many countries and large investors have started considering the EU and other markets to diversify their portfolio," Gogaladze explains.
US President Donald Trump signs a decree imposing duties on foreign imports
Another factor in favor of the ruble is the gradual weakening of the geopolitical premium for sanctions risk. In two years, the Russian economy has demonstrated resilience to external constraints.
"Positive signals regarding the dialogue between Russia and the United States increased the optimism of the markets and the influx of funds into the ruble: despite the ongoing sanctions, even the prerequisites for a peace agreement reduced the risk premium," Shakhurin notes.
Attention to negotiations
The further course of the negotiation process remains one of the key factors that will influence the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Both positive and negative scenarios are possible.
A positive scenario implies a partial or complete lifting of sanctions, which will lead to a strengthening of the ruble. According to analysts interviewed by Izvestia, the Russian currency in this case will remain in the range of 80-85 rubles per dollar.
If the negotiations fail, the dollar will creep to 85 rubles and above. And in case of an external shock or sanctions escalation, we can see 95-100.
A negative scenario would mean increased restrictions, which could raise the dollar exchange rate to 90-95 rubles. However, even with a successful outcome of the negotiations, a quick lifting of sanctions is still unlikely, says Olga Veretennikova, vice president of the Borsell analytical company.
However, according to experts, the sharp movements in the exchange rate after the negotiations will be short-term.
What's next
In general, most analysts expect the ruble to weaken by the end of this year. The Russian currency will continue to be affected by monetary policy, inflation risks, oil prices, the recovery of imports and domestic demand for the currency.
— By the end of the year, the range for the US dollar will depend on the outcome of key geopolitical events, the policy of the Central Bank and the dynamics of oil prices. If current conditions are maintained, the exchange rate will remain in the 78-84 ruble range. If the external background worsens (new sanctions, a drop in Brent below $60), a return to 85-90 is possible," says Vasily Girya, CEO of GIS Mining.
With a favorable combination of factors, such as rising oil prices and maintaining currency controls, the exchange rate may remain in the range of 75-80 rubles per dollar.
"However, most likely, the exchange rate is already close to the highs, so a reversal is quite possible, especially if currency restrictions are lifted and another reduction in the Central Bank's key rate occurs," Olga Veretennikova points out.
By the end of August, the key rate, reduced to 18% in July, as well as the end of the dividend period and a reduction in mandatory payments from exporters, will exert pressure on the exchange rate. In addition, the ruble may be affected by increased inflation, an increase in demand for the currency, along with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. Thus, by the end of the year, the ruble is likely to weaken closer to the range of 85-90 rubles per dollar, the analyst said.
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