New resort town: what will happen to Moscow's climate by 2050
Summer with a Black Sea flavor is a new climatic reality of the capital in the near future. Moscow is already experiencing record heat, heavy rains and sudden weather changes, and by the middle of the century these natural phenomena will become the norm. Climate change inevitably transforms not only the weather, but also the appearance of the city, the daily life and health of residents. For more information about how Moscow can transform in a subtropical climate, see the Izvestia article.
New subtropics: how Moscow's climate will change in 25 years
By the middle of the 21st century, the climate in Moscow will resemble that of the Black Sea. This forecast was announced by Mikhail Yashin, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, lecturer at the Department of Environmental Protection at the Yugo-Zapad Educational Complex. According to him, in recent years, the capital has increasingly faced the manifestations of a new climate regime — a sharp change in seasons and extreme weather changes. Such metamorphoses are manifested by abnormal heat above 30 degrees and heavy rains, which can be so intense that in a few hours a month's precipitation falls in the city.
"Forecasts say that by the middle of the century, summer in the middle zone may resemble the Black Sea coast. But you need to focus not only on the heat, but also on winter instability: heavy snowfalls, freezing rains, and ice," Mikhail Yashin said.
Tatiana Pozdnyakova, a leading specialist at the Meteonosti news agency, makes similar conclusions. She notes that the Moscow summer is acquiring more and more characteristics of the subtropical climate — high humidity, frequent thunderstorms, showers and squalls. And these are not temporary anomalies, but a new reality caused by global warming, the expert notes.
In support of these observations, TV presenter and meteorologist Evgeny Tishkovets states that July 2025 in Moscow exceeded the climatic temperature limit by two degrees — 113 mm of precipitation fell, which was 134% of the monthly norm.
"Taking into account the relatively cool June, summer is 0.8 degrees warmer than the average temperature with waterlogging by 14%. And August will not let you down," he stressed.
According to Russia's Climate Doctrine of 2023, such changes are a steady trend: heat over 30 degrees and heavy rains are becoming part of Moscow's new climate.
How heat and humidity will affect the view of Moscow
Climate change, which is already manifesting itself in Moscow, requires a revision of approaches to urban infrastructure and the appearance of the city. Mikhail Yashin notes that Moscow's infrastructure was originally designed for a temperate climate. Now, with the increase in average temperature in summer, there is an increase in thunderstorms, squalls and powerful but short-term downpours, which create serious problems for engineering systems.
"Storm sewers designed for other climatic conditions do not always cope: the streets flood, transport stops," explains Yashin.
This issue is particularly acute in areas with dense buildings and a large amount of asphalt pavement, where water does not have time to soak into the soil due to heavy precipitation. In his opinion, in order to prepare for the new climatic realities, cities in the temperate zone should study and apply the experience of megacities from subtropical and tropical climatic zones. We are talking about open drainage systems, wastewater collection tanks and extensive green areas — elements that can effectively absorb and regulate moisture, reducing the load on utility networks.
Meteorologist Tatiana Pozdnyakova adds that Moscow's architectural projects and engineering standards are focused on the climate of the middle zone with low precipitation intensity. Traditional underground storm sewers cannot cope with sudden heavy rains, which leads to regular flooding.
In subtropical regions such as the Krasnodar Territory, open channels and reservoirs are already being used to drain excess water, but there are still not enough such systems in Moscow. The landscape and soil of the city are also not adapted to the rapid absorption of large amounts of precipitation, which exacerbates the problem.
Experts agree that, given forecasts that the Moscow summer will become hotter and rainier by 2050, the city authorities should seriously review construction standards and improve engineering communications. Special attention will need to be paid to the development of storm sewer systems, the organization of new green areas and the introduction of modern rainwater storage and drainage solutions.
One of the key consequences is the need to adapt urban green spaces. In a hotter and wetter climate, the species composition of trees and plants will change. Thermophilic and moisture-loving crops, which used to be rare in the middle zone, will be much easier to take root. This will contribute to the formation of a kind of subtropical urban landscape with more lush, dense vegetation.
Attention to landscaping of streets and courtyards will also increase, as shade and moisture evaporation will become important factors of the microclimate in urban areas. Green spaces not only reduce the effect of the "urban heat island", but also improve air quality, help fight dust and pollution.
With climate change, the color accents of the city will also change. Numerous rainy days, high humidity and hot summers will affect the atmosphere of streets and buildings: facades will acquire richer shades, and mosses and lichens may appear in shady places, which will give the city an exotic appearance. All these changes will visually bring Moscow closer to the resort cities with a milder and wetter climate — the subtropical coasts of the Black Sea and the northern regions of the Caucasus.
What will happen to the health of Muscovites
Mikhail Yashin notes that climate shifts affect the environmental impact in the city. On hot days, the concentration of ground—level ozone increases, an aggressive component of the air that worsens the condition of the respiratory tract and can provoke an exacerbation of respiratory diseases. In addition, polluted air with fine suspended particles acts as a catalyst for increased thunderstorm events, which additionally affects the health of weather-dependent people, causing spikes in blood pressure, headaches and a deterioration in general well-being.
Tatiana Pozdnyakova, a leading specialist at the Meteonosti news agency, emphasizes that high humidity combined with heat creates favorable conditions for the spread of allergens and insects, including disease vectors. This increases the risk of allergic reactions, exacerbations of chronic diseases and increases the burden on the healthcare system.
In addition, an increase in the duration and intensity of heat is associated with an increase in the number of heat strokes and dehydration, especially in the elderly and children. Also, sudden temperature changes negatively affect the cardiovascular system and the general incidence rate.
How much will the capital's lifestyle become more expensive
Climate change towards subtropical climate will become one of the components affecting the city's economy and the standard of living of its residents. In addition to weather challenges, forecasts point to redevelopment of areas, intensification of urban infrastructure and an increase in the cost of basic services and real estate.
According to the latest expert estimates, the cost per square meter of housing in Moscow will grow slowly but steadily. On average, the annual increase in real estate prices is expected to be in the range of 1.5–3% per year, which in 25 years will lead to an increase in housing prices by 30-75%. This growth is explained by limited land resources, increased comfort and technology in construction, as well as changes in infrastructure necessary to adapt to new climatic conditions.
Rethinking building regulations and modernizing engineering and utility systems will require significant investments, which will also affect the formation of utility tariffs. Increased energy costs, including additional cooling during hot periods, stormwater management, and maintaining the urban environment will lead to higher utility bills and service charges.
In addition, the increase in prices will affect transport services, healthcare and other social services, which will also have to adapt to new realities.: climatic stresses increase the deterioration of infrastructure and the cost of its repair and renovation. The lifestyle of Muscovites will become more expensive due to the need to purchase more technologically advanced and energy-efficient products equipped with climate control, as well as the cost of measures to adapt to heat and humidity, such as air conditioning, clothing and products with water—repellent properties.
At the same time, the growth of digitalization and the development of smart technologies can partially contain inflationary processes by optimizing costs and increasing the efficiency of the urban sector. According to forecasts, Moscow will retain the status of one of the most expensive megacities in Russia, and the standard of living will grow in parallel with the increase in expenses.
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