Uninvited guest: Turkey has joined the EU again
Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again spoke about Turkey's possible accession to the EU. This statement was made against the background of pressure on the opposition within the republic, as well as talk about the possibility of running for president for a new term. It is possible that in this way the Turkish leader decided to compete for the votes of the pro-European electorate. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
They will kindly come
In his speech, Erdogan called unification with Ankara the "last chance" for the European Union.
"The world is changing, and Europe has already changed. Getting rid of outdated, intrusive political barriers can be a step that opens up a new era for Turkey and propels the European Union into the future. We are ready for full membership [in the EU]," the Turkish president said.
At the same time, the head of state clearly chose the wrong moment for such words — on the way back after a visit to the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
He stated that there is no other way to resolve the Cyprus conflict between the Greeks and Turkish Cypriots, except for the international recognition of the TRNC.
Considering that the international community recognizes only the Republic of Cyprus, which is predominantly inhabited by Greeks and is part of the EU, Brussels hardly liked these words.
Turkey faces many obstacles on its way to the EU, and the resolution of the Cyprus issue between Ankara and Athens is only one of the necessary conditions for Turkey's possible European integration. In addition, Ankara, which is already far from the democratic standards adopted in the EU, has been moving away from them more and more recently. The president's opponents, representatives of the country's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), including former Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, are being sent to prison one by one.
View of Ankara
Currently, the prosecutor's office is demanding that some of the deputies of the CHP, including its leader Ozgur Ozel, be stripped of their immunity. In addition, President Erdogan and his entourage often criticize Brussels for interfering in the internal affairs of the Republic of Turkey.
For the sake of the pro-Western electorate
In Turkey itself, the issue of whether Erdogan will run for a new term or not is currently on the agenda. The presidential elections in Turkey are scheduled for 2028. According to the Constitution, he no longer has the right to be elected. But there is a loophole in the basic law that allows you to stand as a candidate if the elections are held ahead of schedule.
Probably, the Turkish leader is preparing for just such a development of events — in this case, the head of state needs to establish relations with the westernized part of society that lives in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
Turkey became an official candidate for EU membership back in 1999, but since then other countries have joined the ranks of the united Europe, and there are still no specifics about Ankara's possible accession. Some European politicians openly say that Turkey is not welcome in the EU.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself has repeatedly said that the republic should go its own way and it does not need to join the EU, since an active foreign policy and membership in the North Atlantic Alliance are enough. However, he's obviously changed his mind now.
What do the experts think
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the Turkish Republic had not officially refused to join the EU.
— That is, despite the cooling of relations, this goal appears in almost all strategic documents and plans of both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the ruling Justice and Development Party, and so on. Another thing is that the process of Turkey's accession to the European Union has long been a subject of bargaining and is used by the power elite as it pleases, depending on the situation," the political scientist explained.
In her opinion, it is now more expedient to link the words of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not so much with the desire to attract a certain part of the electorate, although this is also important, as with the point changes taking place in Turkish-European relations.
— The other day, Great Britain and Turkey agreed to supply Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Ankara. Although the UK is no longer a full member of the EU, it still has some influence on the eurozone. Following this Turkish-British consensus, Germany, which supplies parts for this type of fighter, also approved the supplies," Sbitneva stressed.
Eurofighter Typhoon Fighter Jet
The specialist emphasized that the consent of Germany is necessary for the export of finished products outside the European Union. At the same time, not so long ago, Berlin was looking for excuses to abandon such cooperation with Turkey in principle. Against this background, Ankara's own rhetoric has changed, Turkey "takes everything from life" and prefers not to give up anything. "And in general, probably, if there was such an opportunity, Turkey would join wherever possible," the analyst believes.
According to Sbitneva, "such unobtrusive reminders are quite natural" that Turkey, in general, is still not averse to becoming a full member of the EU, but deep down "everyone understands everything" and Turkey, given its foreign policy and conflicts with other members of the association, is "not particularly welcome there."".
"However, it is also important to note exactly what the Turkish president said, because there was not a word about how much Turkey needs the European Union," the researcher emphasized.
She added that this was not the first time the Turkish leader had said that the European Union needed Turkey. Earlier, the country's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Turkey is necessary for the architecture of European security. This, according to the interlocutor of Izvestia, indicates a changed balance of power, in which Turkey considers itself a supra-regional player.
Razil Guzaerov, a junior researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, told Izvestia that the idea of Turkey joining the European Union had been one of the key points of the Justice and Development Party's program since it came to power, but it was obvious that the conditions set by Brussels were difficult for Ankara to meet.
— Every year, illusions in this regard disappeared and the Turkish leadership periodically slipped into criticism of the EU and its policy towards Turkey. The political relations between Turkey and the EU have not always been stable, and the parties could not find common ground on a number of issues (the migration issue, the settlement of the Cyprus issue, the division of the shelf in the Eastern Mediterranean, and others)," the political scientist noted.
According to him, as a result, all this resulted in diplomatic scandals and the cooling of political relations, but these goals remained in the program documents and strategies.
— For example, after the European Union's decision to switch to carbon neutrality by 2050, Turkey created a Green Memorandum action plan, which is a roadmap for green transformation to match this aspect of Turkey's plans. Similar references to the EU exist in other documents, the expert believes.
The expert is sure that Erdogan's change of discourse should be linked to the domestic political situation. In Turkey, calls for constitutional reform have become more frequent, as well as for the participation of the current president in early elections. But, given the long-term economic crisis and falling living standards, Erdogan may not receive the active support of the population, as in the old days, the expert believes. Therefore, he needs to use tools that will help establish relations with a part of the electorate that supports Turkey's path to the EU.
According to the analyst, the EU has repeatedly stated its unwillingness to accept Turkey into its ranks in the near future.
— In this regard, Erdogan's statement should not be considered as a reset of relations between Ankara and Brussels. The parties may be interested in expanding dialogue and economic relations, but Turkey's full membership in the EU is out of the question. Moreover, the Turkish president made his statement on the way from the unrecognized Northern Cyprus, because of which Ankara is criticized by the EU," Guzaerov concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
