Recovery and growth: what awaits the Russian advertising market next year

In 2023, the advertising market grew by 30%, a year later — by 24%, and in 2025, experts expect a decrease in growth rates to 20%. Market participants consider high inflation, tight monetary policy and changes in legislation to be the main reasons. At the same time, the growth of the advertising market is likely to stabilize in the next two to three years. Izvestia figured out what the future holds for the industry.

The market situation

Like other segments of the economy, the advertising market is highly dependent on inflation and the key interest rate. In recent years, the economic situation has affected consumer purchasing power and behavior, which is why most companies are reviewing their promotion budgets. Another reason to optimize costs is the desire of brands to increase the effectiveness of advertising.

Increased regulation of online advertising has also had an impact on the situation. At the beginning of 2024, Russia introduced mandatory labeling of advertising content, and in April 2025, a new fee was introduced — market participants were required to transfer 3% of advertising revenue to the state budget. The changes increase the cost of placements and advertising inventory, which inevitably leads to media inflation, experts say.

In addition, at the time of the introduction of the new fee, the legislation had not yet fixed transparent formulations about what is considered advertising on the Internet and what is not. Now the rules have become clearer, and market participants have begun to invest more actively in promotion.

Anatoly Denisov, the operating director of Runet Rating, also noted that the increase in inventory prices is stimulated not only by the new fee, but also by the introduction of mandatory payment of tax for organizations and sole proprietors from 2025.

Drivers of future growth

Despite the slowdown in growth, the advertising market will continue to scale in the near future, and the pace of development may recover to pre-crisis levels, experts believe. The key impact will be a gradual reduction in the key rate — since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank has reduced it from 21% to 18%. It is expected that in 2026 the rate may decrease to 16% or even 13%. Loans will become cheaper, and the population will be more willing to spend the funds that are currently held on deposits. This can stimulate the growth of consumer activity, which, in turn, will push businesses to increase investments in advertising. However, according to experts and market participants, the process will be gradual.

— Now we are witnessing a cooling of demand in the market of household appliances and electronics. There was a transition from consumption to accumulation, which directly affected the dynamics of sales in the industry. The regulator's decision to lower the key interest rate gives hope for a gradual recovery in consumer activity, especially in the segments most sensitive to the cost of borrowed funds: household appliances, electronics, cars, real estate. We expect that the rate cut will become a catalyst for the turnaround of the consumer market in the second half of 2025," noted M.Video-Eldorado.

In turn, Boris Omelnitsky, president of the Association for the Development of Interactive Advertising (ARIR), noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the action of the key rate has its own inertia: companies in the advertising segment react cautiously to its reduction.

"It is more likely that we will see real changes in the first or second quarter of 2026," he believes.

According to Mikhail Shklyaev, Chief Managing Director of Okkam, promotion in search and on marketplaces will respond most quickly to an improvement in the economic situation, primarily due to the immediate results.

Market participants still consider the digital segment to be the main growth factor. At the same time, retail media and instant messenger advertising demonstrate great dynamics - they have grown by 40% over the year. Classic channels also remain relevant, such as contextual advertising in Search results. This is facilitated by the large size of the audience that can be reached online, as well as the development of AI tools, experts say.

— Brands will focus even more on the effectiveness of advertising channels and the return on promotion — technological tools that allow for more targeted interaction with the target audience and get better results will be especially popular. Therefore, we expect an active increase in investments in online advertising, which is now actively implementing the capabilities of artificial intelligence, - said Boris Omelnitsky.