Automatic peace: what is the reason for the escalation on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan

Tension is growing on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, six attacks have been reported in Baku in two days, while Yerevan denies all charges. At the same time, the parties recently announced the agreement on the text of a peace treaty, but the document has not yet helped resolve the situation. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Attempt number six

The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan has reported six attacks on the border with Armenia over the past two days. According to these statements, the fire was conducted from small arms in the southern section of the contact line. It may seem like a routine event, but in fact, since the beginning of the year, Baku had only reported such incidents three times.

The Armenian Defense Ministry has consistently denied all six reports of shelling. They always recalled that Yerevan had proposed to Baku in June last year to create a joint mechanism to investigate border incidents, but so far there has been no reaction. It is also noted that Armenia is ready to consider facts confirming violations of the ceasefire regime, if Azerbaijan provides them.

In turn, the office of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that no instructions were given to the military to violate the ceasefire. They also stressed that official Yerevan is guided by a peaceful agenda, is ready to continue work on delineating the border with Azerbaijan, create a mechanism for mutual arms control and unblocking transport communications in the region.

Interestingly, the European observer mission also reported that it had not detected any unusual activity on the border of the two countries in recent days. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, however, stated that all the provocations of the Armenian servicemen were recorded on video, and the Armenian side allegedly knew about these recordings. "Instead of demonstrating goodwill and stopping such incidents, abstract and practically impossible proposals are being put forward," the ministry noted.

"We don't trust a single word"

On March 13, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced that they had agreed on the last two points of the peace agreement. According to official data, one of them concerns the issue of non-deployment of third-country forces in the border area. In this case, we are talking about the mission of Euro-observers, which operates in Armenia. In Baku, EU representatives were repeatedly criticized, accusing them of engaging in intelligence activities. Yerevan now promises to review the mission's functions after signing the document.

The second point concerns the withdrawal of claims to international courts. It is known that Yerevan has initiated several proceedings at the International Criminal Court (ICC) In November 2023, the United Nations reached a resolution according to which Azerbaijan must ensure the safety of the population who left Karabakh. In addition, four Armenian complaints against Azerbaijan are being considered by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).

At the same time, the Armenian authorities evasively answer questions about why they agreed to the concessions. For example, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan noted that Yerevan met Baku halfway when it became clear that "it would not be possible to achieve ideal formulations." "We discussed it in the format of the Security Council and came to the conclusion that the current content can be considered a compromise option that is acceptable to Armenia," he stressed.

There were also many questions in Yerevan about the fact that during the negotiations Nikol Pashinyan's team did not discuss with Azerbaijan the issue of the return home of Armenian prisoners of war and former Karabakh leaders who are currently being tried in Baku. The head of the country's government replied that some non-public efforts were allegedly being made, but not as part of negotiations on a peace agreement. "Azerbaijan is constantly trying to introduce additional escalation factors," Pashinyan complained.

At the same time, Baku did not express any enthusiasm for Yerevan's concessions. Thus, President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenians carried out ethnic cleansing during the Karabakh conflict, expelling hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis, and now "pretend to be a dove of peace." "We don't trust a single word they say. Because these are not the people we can trust, including today's government. Again, everything they say has no meaning for us. We need documents, we need papers," he stressed.

Aliev also added that the list of Azerbaijan's demands remains extensive. According to him, Armenia should rewrite its constitution, which contains indirect claims to Karabakh. In addition, Yerevan should agree to the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established to resolve the Karabakh conflict and has now turned out to be irrelevant. Finally, Aliyev demands that the neighboring state stop rearming the army and stop purchasing equipment from India and France.

As a result, there were opinions on both sides that the neighboring state did not really want peace. So, Aliyev said that Armenia is trying to at least virtually preserve some of its positions. Armenian MP Tigran Abrahamyan stressed that Baku is "tightening the noose" in order to squeeze everything out of Armenia and deprive it of the opportunity to make independent decisions. In such circumstances, reports of cross-border shelling will probably become a reason for additional caution.

What the experts say

Caucasian expert Artur Ataev believes that some Armenian forces, which are not connected with the country's leadership, could have initiated the border attacks.

— There are forces in Armenia that believe that peace is unprofitable for the country under the current conditions, they oppose the policies of Nikol Pashinyan and his team. I do not rule out that they could have organized such provocations in order to disrupt the signing of the agreement with Azerbaijan, as well as create an additional negative background for the trial of the Karabakh leaders, which is underway in Baku. In general, the situation in the macroregion is difficult now, difficult processes are taking place in Syria and Iran. All this does not contribute to stabilization in Transcaucasia," he emphasizes.

Vladimir Novikov, head of the Caucasus Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, says that Azerbaijan can use border incidents to further pressure Armenia.

— Azerbaijan wants to get maximum concessions from Armenia, they believe that now is the most appropriate time for this. One of the tools is the threat of a new war. Numerous reports of cross-border shelling are a good reason to increase counter-armed pressure. Baku seems to be telling its neighbors: "Don't expect a peace treaty to be signed soon. Either agree to all our demands, or a new escalation will occur," he notes.