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- Point of view: Russia is ready to react to a turn in relations with the United States in an unfavorable direction
The Russian Federation will make every effort to consolidate the current trends in relations with the United States. This was stated to Izvestia by Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council. At the same time, Moscow intends to react if there are U-turns in an unfavorable direction from the opposite side. Although the parties are currently engaged in a dialogue on the Ukrainian settlement, they still do not speak the same language. The expert community notes that when discussing the truce, the next step should be a conversation between Moscow and Washington about Russian security guarantees. However, the settlement process, in their opinion, will be hampered by European countries that have adopted an anti-Russian course to continue the conflict at any cost.
How will relations between Russia and the United States develop?
The change of administration in the White House has made a noticeable change in the US approaches to the Ukrainian settlement and dialogue with Russia. Moscow, of course, notes the intensification of contacts between the countries and positively assesses the desire to resolve the crisis. Nevertheless, Russia remains cautiously optimistic. Thus, the Federation Council does not rule out any scenarios for the further development of bilateral relations, from the most positive to the most negative.
— Unfortunately, it is not necessary to make any forecasts for the long term. Only time will tell. Of course, we will make every effort to consolidate the current trends. We will react if some reversals begin again from the opposite side in a direction unfavorable for Russia," Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
Of course, efforts from both sides will be required to maintain the dialogue, and they are being made now. Russia has not been the initiator of problems in international relations in recent years, and therefore the initiative to eliminate them should come from those who provoked them, that is, from the West, the Russian senator believes.
Now, in the negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States on Ukraine, "the distance is closing," said Steve Witkoff, special envoy of the President of the United States, on March 16. Donald Trump expects a cease-fire in Ukraine "within weeks." Moreover, the White House said that the settlement would provide for Kiev's renunciation of the territories in exchange for future security guarantees. Vladimir Zelensky later confirmed that such negotiations were underway with Ukraine.
The settlement of the conflict in Ukraine is an important element necessary for the restoration of the entire complex of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States. On March 13, Vladimir Putin met with the special envoy of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff, in the Kremlin. It took place after Washington and Kiev agreed on a 30-day truce if Moscow takes this step.
The plane of the US delegation at Vnukovo-2 airport in Moscow
According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin transmitted information and additional signals to Donald Trump through Witkoff. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the meeting positive and productive. Donald Trump also considered her to be such. He stated that "there is a very good chance" of ending the conflict. At the same time, the American president later clarified that on Monday, March 17, more information would become known about the prospect of a cease-fire.
Vladimir Putin has clearly stated that Russia supports the idea of a truce and finds it correct, but there are nuances. So, it is unclear what to do with the "site of the penetration in the Kursk region" and the Ukrainian Armed Forces troops stationed there, and the issue of monitoring compliance with the ceasefire regime remains open. In addition, Russia fears that the Ukrainian army may take advantage of the situation to regain its strength and continue fighting against Russia.
Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted that Moscow perceives calls for a truce in Ukraine as an attempt to give the Ukrainian Armed Forces time to rearm and has already conveyed its concerns to the United States on this issue.
— We perceive this as an attempt to give respite to the Ukrainian troops, who are currently going through difficult times. The Russian army is advancing in all directions, and in this situation we can perceive [a truce]. as some kind of attempt to give the Ukrainian military time to rearm and regroup," he said.
Despite the beginning of the peace process, the parties still "do not speak the same language" regarding the assessment of the situation in Ukraine. The next step should be a pointed conversation between Moscow and Washington about the guarantees that will be provided to Russia before the truce in Ukraine comes into force and its terms, HSE analyst Tigran Meloyan tells Izvestia. The Russian position is quite clear — Moscow is in favor of a truce that guarantees a path to long-term peace with the subsequent elimination of the root causes of the conflict, but against a truce in the guise of a "Trojan pigeon."
— The American strategy can develop in two directions. First, Washington is ready for dialogue on such a list of issues, and then American special representatives go with them to Zelensky with the option that Kiev should agree to the conditions put forward. Secondly— Trump believes that bargaining with Moscow is inappropriate. Then we can slide to the fact that attempts will be made to put pressure on Russia by threatening to tighten sanctions, primarily pressure on Russia's partner countries by expanding secondary sanctions and continuing hostilities," the expert believes.
The continued tension between the United States and Russia is beneficial to the European Union today, Meloyan believes. The EU, together with the UK, will try to do everything to prevent Kiev from agreeing to peace initiatives on Moscow's terms. Brussels and London give hope to Kiev for continued military and political support, which may stall the US-Russian negotiation process and affect the negotiability of the Ukrainian side.
The reaction of Europe and Ukraine to the rapprochement between Russia and the United States
The peace initiatives of the Russian Federation and the United States were dissatisfied in Europe from the very beginning of the resumption of negotiations between Moscow and Washington. On March 6, European leaders gathered for a summit to discuss increased defense spending and further support for Ukraine. After that, it was announced that a new major military assistance complex would be developed. But in early March, the media reported that the EU had suspended work on a €20 billion package.
On March 20, military leaders from the countries of the "coalition of the willing" will gather in London to discuss concrete steps to send troops to Ukraine in order, allegedly, to ensure peace after the conflict is resolved. The Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that it opposes the deployment of European armed contingents on Ukrainian territory. But France and the United Kingdom are likely to advocate delaying negotiations and putting forward additional demands on Russia, which will contribute to delaying the negotiation process, political analyst Ivan Loshkarev tells Izvestia.
— If we are talking about Germany, there is just less predictability here. Perhaps Berlin will prefer a less proactive position in this area, based on the fact that its resources are exhausted, and the resumption of the same gas supplies from Russia may help mitigate the economic situation in the country, the expert believes.
European supranational institutions will take a position closer to the French and British ones, since the current positions of the President of the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy have invested a lot of career and emotional resources precisely in whipping up anti-Russian hysteria and sanctions policy. There will also be a group of countries that will take an indifferent position.
— We can see the cautious line of Portugal, which refuses to purchase American weapons and generally seeks to focus on issues of internal development. We will probably observe something similar, for example, in Greece," the expert believes.
At the same time, the future reaction of Kiev is not completely clear. At the end of February, Vladimir Zelensky arrived in the United States, as expected, to sign an agreement on rare earth metals. However, his visit ended in an altercation in the Oval Office, after which the Ukrainian leader was asked to leave the office.
Obviously, the military and political leadership of Ukraine will seek to present the Russian Federation as an opponent of a peaceful settlement and even resort to provocations during a possible 30-day truce, Tigran Meloyan believes. Kiev's main goal now is to win over Washington and demonstrate that it is impossible to negotiate with Moscow.
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