On Saturday, March 14, the inauguration of the new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, took place. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned on the eve of the ceremony. Along with Carney, members of his new cabinet also took the oath of office. The leader of the Liberal Party will hold this post until the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for October 20. Carney may announce an early vote amid a drop in the Liberals' rating. The day before, the new head of government took a tough stance towards the United States and threatened to impose mirror tariffs on American goods. About how the trade war with the United States will develop further and what policy Carney may pursue with regard to Russia is in the Izvestia article.
Mark Carney becomes Prime Minister of Canada
The decade of Justin Trudeau's rule, which began in 2015, ended with a deep crisis within the Liberal Party. By the time of his resignation, Trudeau's approval rating was only 22%, and support for his party had dropped to a historic low of 20%. The reasons for the decline in popularity are multifaceted: dissatisfaction with economic policy, rising inflation, failures in social programs and, most importantly, the outbreak of the trade war with the United States, which has put a heavy burden on the Canadian economy. Against this background, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Pouillevre is gaining 39.8% in the polls, which makes it the favorite for the upcoming elections in October, according to the results of a CBS News poll.
Carney is a figure far removed from the classic image of a Canadian politician. His career began not in the parliamentary corridors, but in the halls of investment banks. His 13 years at Goldman Sachs, where he rose from analyst to head of emerging markets, shaped him as a strategist capable of working in crisis conditions. He advised the South African government after the fall of the apartheid regime, ran the Bank of Canada at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and then headed the Bank of England, becoming the first foreigner in this post. Although later he received British citizenship. He later served as an adviser to Boris Johnson, worked on climate finance at the United Nations, and advised Trudeau during the pandemic. On March 9, Carney won 85% of the vote in the election of the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. His opponent, who was considered the favorite for the post— former Finance Minister and current member of Parliament Chrystia Freeland, took second place, gaining only 8%.
Carney is a technocrat whose authority is based on professionalism, not populism. His campaign promises reflect pragmatism: an increase in defense spending to 2% of GDP, tax cuts for the middle class, and a switch to green energy. But the main point was the trade policy — the principle of "dollar for dollar" in response to American tariffs.
The resignation of Trudeau and the arrival of Carney have completely turned the electoral balance in Canada, says Dmitry Volodin, a leading researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN). The new prime minister's main trump card is that he starts with a clean slate and is not responsible for Trudeau's failures, the expert believes.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
— Before Trudeau's resignation, the conservatives were ahead of the liberals in the polls by a huge margin (20% or more), and everyone predicted a resounding victory for them. After the start of the trade war with the United States and after the departure of the extremely unpopular Trudeau, support for the liberals increased sharply and moved closer to the conservatives. Therefore, it is impossible to predict the winner now. Carney may become prime minister for several months or for the next four years," Dmitry Volodin told Izvestia.
Carney's chances of staying in power depend on two factors — whether he can quickly raise the liberals' rating and reach an agreement with Washington. If the trade war worsens, early elections will definitely become inevitable. However, recent polls show that after his appointment, support for the Liberals rose to 32%, narrowing the gap with the Conservatives to 7%. This gives Carney a chance to win, but only on condition that he can prove his effectiveness in the confrontation with Trump.
Prospects for U.S.-Canadian relations under Carney
The conflict between Canada and the United States reached its peak in March, when the Trump administration imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, affecting key sectors of the Canadian economy. The American president initially positioned these measures as a lever of pressure to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. Ottawa's response was mirrored by tariffs on American goods and higher prices for electricity supplied to border states.
Trump, known for his unpredictability, responded by threatening to raise tariffs to 50% and impose duties on Canadian cars. "Canada has sunk so low that it uses electricity supplies as a weapon!" he said on his social network. However, the escalation was temporarily halted: the province of Ontario abolished duties on electricity, and the United States kept tariffs at 25%.
It is still too early to talk about changes in Canadian-American relations due to the replacement of Trudeau with Carney, since Carney announced that he would act on a dollar-for-dollar basis, that is, Canada would be responsible for each American duty with its own, Dmitry Volodin noted.
— In this sense, there is no change from Trudeau's position. On the other hand, Carney has the advantage of not being responsible for the decades-long policies of the Trudeau government. Much will depend on how the personal relationship between Carney and Trump develops. There is not as much age difference between them as there was between Trudeau and Trump. In addition, Carney has made a very successful career as a financier, first in Canada, then in the UK, that is, he comes from an environment that is closer and more understandable (and more respected) to Trump," the expert explained.
But there is another side: back in 2019, Carney openly stated the need to reduce dependence on the dollar, proposing the creation of a digital reserve currency. This is a direct threat to US hegemony, which Trump is unlikely to like. Moreover, the idea of Canada as the "51st state," which Trump promotes as a "solution to all problems," is categorically rejected by Carney: "Canada will never become part of the United States."
The forecasts are contradictory. On the one hand, both leaders are pragmatists who value economic benefits. On the other hand, their ambitions may collide. If Carney manages to contain the escalation, his rating will soar. If not, the conservatives will get a trump card in the election race.
Will Ottawa continue its anti-Russian course under Carney
Canada's relations with Russia have reached their lowest level in recent years. Ottawa has imposed over 70 packages of restrictions affecting 2,000 people and 700 companies, closed its airspace to Russian aircraft and imposed 35 percent duties on goods. Ukraine's military support has exceeded $14 billion, including training of militants and tacit approval of attacks on Russian territory.
The Canadian government alone, regardless of party affiliation, will not abandon its anti-Russian course, Dmitry Volodin believes. According to the expert, Canada's position will undoubtedly be influenced by the results of the current negotiations between the United States and Russia on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. However, it should be borne in mind that it is much harder for the Canadian leadership to abandon the anti-Russian course due to the very strong influence of the large and well-organized Ukrainian diaspora in Canada, he noted.
"Given the upcoming parliamentary elections in Canada, none of the major parties will risk this in order not to lose the votes of the Ukrainian diaspora," the expert emphasized.
Carney's appointment, however, is not the worst-case scenario for Moscow. His opponent in the liberal leadership election was Chrystia Freeland, who has Ukrainian roots and takes an extremely tough approach to Russia. Although her defeat gives a faint hope for moderation.
Carney, as a technocrat, is likely to maintain the current course, adapting to the consensus of the G7 and NATO. Canada, which became the chairman of the G7 in 2025, demonstrates a tougher position than the previous leaders of the "seven" — Japan and Italy. Supporting the attacks on the Crimean Bridge, ignoring the attacks on the Belgorod region, and keeping silent about the deaths of Russian journalists and activists all indicate that Ottawa is not yet seeking any dialogue with Moscow.
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