Prohibitive cost: consumer loan disbursements cut by almost half
The number of consumer loans issued in December 2024 decreased by 49.7% compared to January 2024 and amounted to 1.42 million. This was reported in the press service of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) with reference to the data of creditors who send information to the bureau. How cooled the market of unsecured lending and what will be the volume of consumer lending in 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
Stopping the growth
It is not quite correct to compare January with December, as there is a pronounced seasonality, noted Ilya Fedorov, chief economist of BKS Investment World, in his conversation with Izvestia.
- If we count in the issuance of funds, then, for example, in December 2024, the issuance amounted to 181 billion rubles - a decrease of 58% compared to December 2023. By January 2024, the decrease amounted to 52%," the expert noted. - Nevertheless, the trend for a serious cooling of lending has already emerged in the fall.
The full cost of credit has become prohibitive - about 33% for a loan amount up to 300 thousand rubles for payroll customers, emphasized Ilya Fedorov. Previously, such rates were for credit cards. In fact, the portfolio of banks on unsecured loans stopped growing by the end of the year, issuance became approximately equal to repayments.
- In the first half of the year, the trend will continue, especially against the background of slowing growth of nominal wages, - he believes. - Potential reduction of the key rate in the second half of the year will slightly improve the situation with lending.
In the conditions of high key rate we see an increase in the rates on credit products, as well as the growth of the PSC indicator (in 2024 it increased by 4 p.p., from 30 to 34%), Magomed Gamzaev, director of the credit direction in the financial marketplace "Sravni", told "Izvestia".
- In December 2024, we noted a decrease in the number of loans issued by 36% by January 2024. At the same time, we recorded an increase in loan applications by 2.5 times in December 2024 compared to January 2024. MFIs partially cover the need for credit funds: last year the growth of microloan applications amounted to 36%, - he said. - This financial instrument is becoming popular among high-income clients.
In 2025, he said, the segment of retail lending will develop depending on the key rate and other regulatory practices of the Central Bank. Banks will continue to observe strict risk policy towards borrowers. Now all potential borrowers need to keep an eye on their credit rating and their financial potential in general.
Twofold slowdown
The growth rate of the portfolio of unsecured consumer loans in 2025 relative to the previous year will show at least a twofold slowdown, said "Izvestia" managing director of the rating agency "Expert RA" Yuri Belikov.
- At the end of the year, we should expect a debt balance of about Br15.4-15.6 trillion. High interest rates have cooled down consumer lending," he believes. - Now, at best, only half of loan applications are approved, and perhaps even less. Also, banks are increasingly cutting the approved amounts relative to the original amounts requested by borrowers.
It is obvious that the credit markets are cooling not just for nothing, but to achieve specific goals, the main of which is to slow inflation and prevent critical growth of the debt burden of citizens, or better yet, the formation of prerequisites for its optimization, the expert explained. And the movement in this direction can still be characterized as very uncertain.
- Accordingly, the cooling of lending should not be regarded as an event that has happened, which will be immediately followed by a recovery growth. In reality, this is a long-term process," added Yuri Belikov.
Daniil Petukhov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the National Economy Department of the Presidential Academy, agreed that the cooling is not accidental and expected. In my opinion, with the existing interest rate, it could not be otherwise. As for the forecast for 2025, if the interest rate is maintained, the situation will freeze at the current level or there will even be a slight revival. If the rate continues to be raised, the current trend of cooling of the consumer credit market will continue.
The regulator's measures in the form of macroprudential limits and additions to risk ratios, combined with the existing level of banks' capital adequacy reserves, as well as high lending rates, have noticeably cooled down the consumer lending segment, Mikhail Polukhin, director of the ACRA Financial Institutions Rating Group, told Izvestia.
- The growth of bank portfolios in 2024 amounted to about 10%, which is significantly lower than in 2023. If the current assumptions are maintained, we expect that the growth of consumer loans in the current year will not exceed 10%, - said the expert.
Time for reflection
Earlier, Vladimir Putin signed a law tightening the requirements for advertising of consumer loans (credits) and obliging to use warning phrases in it. It is aimed at reducing the volume of impulsively taken loans without proper consideration of the consequences for the borrower and his family.
In particular, the new law obliges advertisements for consumer credit (loan) to call for the study of all its terms and conditions and familiarize themselves with them on the official website of the creditor. If it is impossible to point to the relevant section of the website, the advertisement must contain all the conditions affecting the full value of the credit or loan.
In addition, the State Duma Committee on Financial Market recommended to adopt in the first reading the bill on the introduction of a "cooling off period" for consumer loans and credits in order to protect citizens from financial fraudsters. The document is scheduled for consideration by the Duma on January 14, and one day will be set aside for amendments.
The bill was introduced by a group of senators and deputies headed by the chairman of the Committee on Financial Market Anatoly Aksakov. It obliges credit and microfinance organizations (MFOs) to issue consumer loans and credits to citizens with a delay of at least 4 hours for amounts from 50 thousand to 200 thousand rubles and a minimum of 48 hours - for amounts over 200 thousand rubles.
The Ministry of Finance forwarded Izvestia's request to the Central Bank, but at the time of publication no response had been received.
