Winged phase: Hezbollah announces new phase of fight against Israel
After an overnight attack on northern Israel, the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah said it had entered a new phase of confrontation with the Israeli state. In turn, the IDF promised to intensify strikes against targets in Lebanon. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, despite the growing degree of tension, there are a number of factors preventing the parties from moving to direct combat. The Izvestia article discusses whether the IDF will decide to launch a ground operation in Lebanon and whether Hezbollah will be helped by its allies.
Hezbollah's retaliatory strike on Israel
Hezbollah's missile strike on Israeli territory on September 22 marks the transition to a new phase of hostilities, said Deputy Secretary General of the movement Naim Qassem. Israel counted about 150 rockets launched into the north of the country on Sunday. Most of them, the authorities assured, were shot down by air defense forces.
Повреждения в результате ракетного обстрела из Ливана
"We have entered a new phase called the 'Battle of Open Accounts'" [...] Threats will not stop us: we are ready for any military scenario," emphasized Naim Qassem, quoted by Al Mayadeen TV.
Hezbollah's press office said Sunday that one of the targets of the attack was in response to a "massacre" the movement believes Israel carried out in Lebanon by blowing up pagers, walkie-talkies and other electronic devices on Sept. 17 and 18. Local officials say 37 people were killed and more than 3,000 wounded.
Заместитель лидера ливанской «Хезболлы» Наим Касем
Recall, September 18, after the second wave of explosions of electronic devices in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant announced the beginning of a new stage of the war and the shift of the center of gravity to the northern front, stressing that the tasks in the Gaza Strip "are also being carried out." The IDF then launched a series of massive strikes in Lebanon. An attack on a Beirut suburb on September 20 killed 45 people, including 16 Hezbollah members.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Gen. Herzi Ha-Levi said Sunday that the strike sent a clear message not only to Hezbollah but to the entire Middle East: "We will strike anyone who threatens the citizens of Israel." He assured that the price Hezbollah is paying will "grow and the strikes will intensify." The military officer promised the residents of the north of the country a speedy return to their homes, which they were forced to leave because of Hezbollah attacks.
Benjamin Netanyahu also made a bellicose statement, apparently alluding to Israel's involvement in the explosion of devices in Lebanon: "Over the past few days, we have dealt Hezbollah a series of blows it could never have imagined. If Hezbollah has not yet gotten the message, I promise it will soon." However, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog told Sky News that his country was not involved in the operation and that Hezbollah has "many enemies."
Премьер-министр Израиля Биньямин Нетаньяху
Who is stronger - Hezbollah or Israel?
Despite the intensified confrontation and loud statements, neither side is yet ready to move beyond the current model of struggle, according to orientalist Leonid Tsukanov.
- The parties continue to test each other's strength - Hezbollah has increased its strikes on Israel's border territories, and the Israelis have increased the pace of preparations for a military operation in the border region. However, the Israeli Cabinet is still "constrained" in its decisions, as it fears that after the invasion of Lebanon, negotiations on the release of hostages can be forgotten. "Besides, there are enough people in the Israeli General Staff who believe that the operation against Hezbollah will fail, and therefore Netanyahu cannot give it a go without exhaustive reasons," he told Izvestia.
Дым поднимается после того, как из Ливана по Израилю были выпущены ракеты
The IDF has been fighting in the Gaza Strip for almost a year and has yet to fulfill the goals set for the Israeli army. According to official figures, Israel has lost 346 soldiers in the Gaza Strip since the start of the operation last October. The total number of Israeli military personnel killed since the Palestinian Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, exceeded 700.
It would be very problematic for the Israel Defense Forces to conduct two simultaneous ground operations. "Hezbollah, despite the recent attacks, remains capable and can inflict significant damage on the Israeli army, Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator of the Russian International Affairs Council, explains to Izvestia.
- Israel is likely to try to limit itself to air strikes against Hezbollah's military facilities and to buy off possible threats from the movement at minimal cost. The likelihood of the current escalation escalating into a full-scale war should not be overestimated. It can also be said that Hezbollah's ability to counter Israel has been reduced as a result of the events of recent days. Because of the pager bombings and the elimination of a number of Hezbollah commanders during the strike on Beirut, coordination within the organization has been significantly disrupted. The airstrikes on launchers and military installations have reduced the capacity of the movement's military wing," he said.
Citing military sources, the British Economist writes that Israel is nevertheless preparing a ground operation in Lebanon to create a buffer zone north of the border. An Israeli reserve officer involved in the preparations told the media that the plans are ready, but there are not enough forces to execute them. The publication also speaks of divisions in Israel's top military and political echelons. Some are calling for a quicker attack to take advantage of the chaos in Hezbollah's ranks. More cautious generals, including Defense Minister Yoav Galant, prefer the current, more gradual strategy, which they hope will force the Lebanese movement to reconsider its positions and retreat.
Израильские танки
Will allies help Hezbollah?
As Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip has shown, Hezbollah should not count on special assistance from Arab countries if the IDF launches a ground operation. According to Ivan Bocharov, Arab countries are now dealing with internal problems, from peace settlements and post-conflict reconstruction to economic modernization and reforms.
- It seems that none of the Arab countries now needs a big war in the Middle East, which will divert resources. Therefore, we should not expect their direct involvement in the conflict or any joint actions," he added.
Iran, one of the main allies of Lebanon's Hezbollah, is in a special situation. Tehran is trying to find common ground in the dialog with the West, so it is not favorable to the aggravation between Israel and Hezbollah, which will require more active participation on the side of the latter.
- As for Iran, it has a great responsibility both for the possible consequences of the current aggravation and for what will happen to its ally. But it is not a fact that Iran is ready for an open confrontation with Israel, given the effectiveness of its recent operations. In my opinion, Iran may increase the scale of military aid to Hezbollah, help it restore its combat capability, or try to organize a showdown, for example, with the involvement of allies - non-state actors," says Ivan Bocharov.
Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the Economics Department of the Lumumba University of Science and Technology, expressed a similar point of view in a conversation with Izvestia. In his opinion, Tehran does not want a direct military clash with Israel.
Члены иранских вооруженных сил
- Tehran has not yet confirmed that it is ready to provide full military support to Hezbollah. It will send arms, instructors, perhaps send some of its groups, but no more than that. Nevertheless, I think that Hezbollah will still be ready to fight, to defend its rights and its interests, and to defend itself. Since this movement was created for a reason, but precisely for the day when Israel decides to enter Lebanon," he concluded.
The expert urged not to write off the factor of Yemeni Houthis, who support Hezbollah and, being quite a combat-ready group, are likely to intensify the fight against Israel.
Йеменские хуситы
A few days ago, the Ansar Allah movement took responsibility for the rocket attack on Tel Aviv. The military representative of this structure, Yahya Saria, said that the strike on the city was carried out using a hypersonic ballistic missile. In doing so, the Houthis pledged to continue to support the Palestinians in their struggle against Israel.
