The onus to choose: what to expect from France's new government
The French opposition criticized the composition of the new government of Michel Barnier, presented the day before by the Elysee Palace. Thus, the Socialists announced their intention in the coming days to pass a vote of no confidence in the cabinet, which is dominated by representatives of Macron's party and the Republicans. At the same time, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the initiative of the leftists is unlikely to be supported by the far-right National Union, which has taken a wait-and-see attitude. The Izvestia article tells us what awaits France under the new cabinet and whether Paris' policy towards Russia will change.
France has a new government
Two weeks after his appointment as head of the French government, Michel Barnier finally managed to form a cabinet of ministers. The candidacies of 39 members of the new Cabinet were approved by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of September 21. In an attempt to put an end to the most serious political crisis of the Fifth Republic, Barnier proposed a compromise composition, including representatives of the presidential camp and the right-wing party "Republicans". Of the former government could retain their chairs only the Minister of Culture Rachida Dati and Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.
Jean-Noël Barrot, 41, who previously served as Minister-Delegate for Europe, was appointed head of the French Foreign Ministry. In his former post, he called for giving Ukraine "everything it needs to resist Russia." His deputy was the Macronist MP Benjamin Haddad, who has been a strong advocate of allowing Kiev to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory. All of this obviously indicates that the Matignon Palace's line on the conflict in Ukraine will not change.
Жан-Ноэль Барро
Ultimately, foreign policy remains directly in the hands of the country's president, Sergei Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.
- With regard to Russia, it is unlikely that anything will change, because in France, an alternative point of view on the conflict in Ukraine has no right to exist. To say something in favor of Putin means to be automatically labeled an enemy of democracy and an accomplice of Moscow. Although there are, of course, extreme right-wingers who are not so zealous in their support for Ukraine and oppose sending troops to Ukraine," he added.
How viable is the new French government
The very political coloring of the new cabinet raises many questions among the opposition. It includes 19 representatives of the presidential camp, 10 from the "Republicans" and only one minister from the left - Didier Migaud, appointed justice minister. Given that Macron has promised to create a "government of national unity," the leftist camp, which won this summer's parliamentary elections, is extremely unhappy with the new composition. Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said on Sunday that the left will move a vote of no confidence in Barnier's government as soon as he presents his cabinet's action plan.
Протест против нового премьер-министра Франции и его правительства на площади Бастилии в Париже, Франция, 21 сентября 2024 года
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unconquered, is also calling to get rid of the new government. In his opinion, the Cabinet has "no legitimacy and no future". Especially the Socialists are concerned about the fact of appointment of the head of the Senate faction of the "Republicans" Bruno Retayo to the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The politician is in favor of strengthening control over illegal migration, proposes to introduce quotas for the admission of foreigners and takes a tough stance on combating radical Islamism.
The National Union, which came third in the parliamentary elections, is also critical. "We will see what Michel Barnier tells us, and depending on what budget he proposes, we will decide whether to give him a vote of no confidence or not," said party vice president Sébastien Chenyou.
With the acute shortage of state funds and growing state debt, the preparation of the budget for 2025 is a priority task facing the Cabinet. In particular, the new Minister of Economy and Finance Antoine Armand promised to "reduce public spending and make it more efficient".
Назначенный на должность главы правительства Франции Мишель Барнье
According to Sergei Fedorov, in approving the composition of the Cabinet, Macron was betting on the "squabbling" between the extreme right and the left and their inability to reach an agreement. Indeed, Olivier Faure expressed doubt that Jordaan Bardelle's party would support a vote of no confidence if it was passed on the government by the Socialists.
"Actually, Barnier was appointed because the Rassemblement Nationale said it would not immediately pass a vote of no confidence and would act depending on the success of the government," he believes. - However, they did not rule out a vote of no confidence either. But Melanchon's extreme left and Le Pen's extreme right are bitter enemies. After the first round, Melanchon called for a vote for any candidate, but not for Le Pen. Therefore, for the extreme right and left to unite against the Macronists and centrists, it is necessary to anger both. So the fate of the government depends largely on the mood of these two opposing camps."
What is the strategy of the extreme right
Obviously, the Rassemblement Nationale is not going to make any sudden moves and wants to consolidate the success demonstrated in the parliamentary elections - to ensure the victory of its candidate in the presidential elections of 2027. Apparently, this is the reason why the association did not participate in the formation of the Cabinet of Ministers - fearing the possible failure of their candidate.
On the other hand, the position of non-interference may play a cruel joke on the Union Nationale, Francois Asselino, head of the People's Republican Union party, told Izvestia.
- "The National Union could lose the public's trust. There is a certain number of its voters who are very dissatisfied with the current situation in the country, and they may hold a grudge against Bardell's party," he added.
The politician believes that France is in for some serious unrest, given the absurd appointment of Antoine Armand as finance minister.
Глава администрации президента Франции Алекси Колер во время объявления нового состава правительства, 21 сентября 2024 года
- No matter how smart you are, at the age of 33 you don't have the ability to assess how to cut government spending. The second issue relates directly to Russia - Barnier has appointed as foreign minister and minister for European affairs young men who are considered ardent supporters of long-range missiles. The vast majority of French people, I think, do not share this bellicose approach toward Russia. And Barnier himself, I believe, does not personally support it. The problem, though, is that he has allowed Macron to impose these ministers. Perhaps there will be a debate about what is happening in Ukraine and that will be one of the reasons to send the government out of office," he concluded.
Indeed, a recent Ifop poll for the Journal du Dimanche newspaper showed that 55% of French people are dissatisfied with the new prime minister Michel Barnier, whose government has not even shown itself in action yet. As for the popularity rating of the French president, it fell to a record 25%. According to the publication, a third of the voters who voted for Macron in the first round believe that the president "failed with the dissolution of Parliament", which "made the country ungovernable".
