Barrel of support: Urals will stay at $70 for at least a month

If Iran and the United States formalize a peace deal, oil will not depreciate to its February level, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The price of Urals crude is expected to remain near $70 per barrel for at least a month. The average annual cost may be $65-68 per barrel. According to analysts, a gradual decline in prices will put pressure on shares of oil companies, but in general it may support growth in financial markets. What assets investors are betting on now and what will happen in the event of a breakdown of the agreement — in the Izvestia article.

The US-Iran Peace Agreement

Even a full-fledged truce between the United States and Iran will not lead to an instant return of oil prices to the levels they were before the conflict began, says Lyudmila Rokotianskaya, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments. After the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Brent may not fall below $80 per barrel soon, according to Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at Garda Capital. According to the experts interviewed, Urals will stay near $70 per barrel for at least another month.

Washington and Tehran have agreed on the text of a 14-point memorandum that provides for the cessation of hostilities. This was first announced by US President Donald Trump, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed the deal. The signing of the document is scheduled for June 19, it will take place in Switzerland. The American leader clarified in his Truth Social network that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would open after that. According to him, this deal should bring peace and security to the entire Middle East region.

Shipowners and traders are in no hurry to return to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg writes. Market participants are waiting for details of the deal and security guarantees after months of attacks and threats to shipping. Currently, almost 600 ships, including about 100 oil tankers, remain blocked in the Persian Gulf region.

At the same time, the signing of the memorandum does not mean the completion of the negotiation process. Over the next 60 days, Washington and Tehran intend to coordinate the remaining contentious issues. The agenda includes lifting sanctions and restrictions related to UN Security Council resolutions, resolving issues related to nuclear weapons, parameters for economic recovery, as well as a mechanism for monitoring the fulfillment of obligations by the parties.

Raw materials began to become cheaper immediately after the news of the agreement appeared. By 17:00 Moscow time, the price of Brent decreased by 5%, to $ 83 per barrel, and Urals — by almost 8.5%, to $ 71.8. At the same time, since the beginning of the escalation of the conflict, the quotes of both brands have at some points risen to $ 110 per barrel.

Information about the deal also had an impact on the share price of major oil companies. By 17:00 Moscow time, Tatneft's securities had fallen in price by 4%, to 572 rubles, and Rosneft's by 1.2%, to 360 rubles. The dynamics of quotations reflects the market's reaction to falling commodity prices.

At the same time, global markets reacted to the deal with noticeable growth. Japan's Nikkei index gained 4% and reached 69,317 points, while South Korea's Kospi rose 5.2% to 8,545 points. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,597 points.

As Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam, explained, new Western sanctions, as well as an excessively strong national currency, remain risks for Russian oil companies. As of 17:00 Moscow time on June 15, the dollar exchange rate was about 72.3 rubles.

What will happen to quotes and the market after the peace agreement

If the United States and Iran sign a full-fledged peace agreement on June 19, oil prices will continue to decline. However, the pullback of quotations will be quite long — it will take from three to six months, says economist Olga Gogaladze.

In her opinion, the lowest prices for raw materials can be expected only closer to the middle or end of autumn. It will take up to three months just to clear the fairway and mine, Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company, recalled. According to him, even in the most optimistic forecast, large oil flows will reach Asian buyers by the end of October at the earliest.

With a stable truce soon, the average annual Urals price will be about $65-68 per barrel, experts believe. This will allow the budget to receive at least 1 trillion rubles of additional revenue, Izvestia wrote earlier.

At the same time, the price of Brent will drop to $75-80 per barrel by the end of the summer. According to the US Department of Energy, it will take several months to restore supplies from the Middle East. The ministry believes that it will be possible to fully normalize the flows no earlier than 2027. Therefore, even if the truce is maintained, the risks for the oil market will remain high — against this background, quotes may go up again and even return to the range of $ 90-95 per barrel, Lyudmila Rokotianskaya admitted.

If the conflict is resolved promptly, this will push the Moscow Exchange index up — it will rise to 2,700 points by autumn, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. She added: Russian stocks are highly undervalued — they have potential for growth. Olga Gogaladze has a different opinion. According to her, the oil and gas sector occupies a large part of the site's index, so a decrease in oil prices will lead to a drop in the value of securities, and they will drag down the Moscow Exchange index.

By the end of the summer, gold can grow from the current $4,350 per ounce to $4,500, and silver from $71 per ounce to $90, Natalia Milchakova expects.

Is there a high risk of disruption of the deal between America and Iran

Izvestia has studied the Polymarket forecast market. Now, significantly more investors are betting on the successful signing of a peace deal in June. At the same time, 98% of users assume that the agreement will enter into force only by the end of the year.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia admitted that the US-Iran deal could indeed fall apart in the coming days. According to their estimates, this probability is high. In such negotiations, the final signature is often more complicated than a political statement: new conditions, issues of guarantees or internal pressure on the parties appear, said Dmitry Smolin, Head of Precious metals at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company.

If no agreement is reached, the further dynamics of oil prices will depend on one of two scenarios. The postponement of the deal will bring back concerns about a possible shortage of raw materials to the market, Olga Gogaladze explained. Against this background, Brent is able to recover to $ 85-90 per barrel, and Urals — to $ 80, follows from the average estimate of experts.

The final breakdown of the agreement may push quotes even higher than the spring highs, Olga Gogaladze explained. Moreover, it will be not only in the absence of additional volumes of oil on the market, but also in the growing concerns about further escalation in the Middle East.

At the same time, the Moscow Exchange index will rise to 2650-2700 due to an increase in the share price of commodity companies. At the same time, the price of gold may fall below $4,300 per ounce.

What should an investor invest in in 2026

Gold and silver, as well as shares of Russian precious metals producers such as Polyus and Norilsk Nickel, remain among the most attractive instruments for private investors, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global believes.

In addition, ruble deposits in reliable banks remain attractive, which can still generate double-digit returns. Another option is OFZs at 13-14% per annum with a maturity of one to three years, the expert added.

Investors who seek to protect their savings from persistent inflation and a possible weakening of the ruble should also pay attention to the bonds of the Ministry of Finance denominated in yuan, Natalia Milchakova explained. This instrument is characterized by higher liquidity compared to precious metals and allows you to count on about 7% per annum in foreign currency.

Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, recommended that investors stick to a diversified strategy and not rely on one asset class. In conditions of uncertainty, stocks of companies whose business is poorly dependent on fluctuations in oil prices may look promising.