Danger guarantees: why is NATO raising more than 200 planes near Russia's borders

The North Atlantic Alliance has launched large-scale air exercises Ramstein Flag 2026. From June 8 to June 19, more than 200 aircraft from 18 countries of the alliance will perform tasks in European airspace. The maneuvers take place in Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Norway and Finland. The intensity of flights can reach 150 departures per day, and the key areas of activity will be Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula. The northern direction of the exercises, deployed in the immediate vicinity of the Russian borders, attracts the special attention of military experts. According to experts, in addition to logistics issues and the integration of fifth-generation aviation, the alliance is working out scenarios for large-scale high-intensity operations. In response, the Russian Armed Forces intensified monitoring of the air situation in the north-western direction.

From patrolling to Article 5

The launch of the large-scale NATO Ramstein Flag 2026 aviation maneuvers marked a tectonic shift in the alliance's defense strategy. As noted by Western specialized media (including Allied Air Command and ArcticToday), the leadership of the bloc is finally abandoning the familiar concept of "Air policing" in favor of a multi-sphere air defense.

In practice, this means moving from deterrence to working out scenarios of direct military conflict provided for in Article 5 of the Collective Security Charter. During the maneuvers that have begun, allied pilots are training to break through protective zones. Their main task is to learn how to suppress echelon air defense systems and coastal missile systems covering strategically important Russian regions: Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula.

The main part of the exercise's aviation group — about 150 aircraft — is concentrated in the northern theater. The key deployment point was the Finnish Rovaniemi airbase, located just a hundred kilometers from the Russian state border. It is currently receiving American fifth-generation F-35B fighters and German Eurofighters. Additional operational hubs are Kallax Airfield in Sweden and Erland in Norway, while the Joint Air Operations Center (CAOC) in Buda is responsible for overall operational coordination of flights.

The Link 16 unified tactical network is the foundation for the coordination of such diverse forces. As explained by military expert Dmitry Kornev, it is these protocols that make it possible to link old aircraft modifications and the latest platforms into a common information field.

In this ecosystem, fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-35 are capable of serving as full-fledged "flying command posts." They do not just exchange target designations, but coordinate the actions of fourth-generation vehicles, distributing information between ground headquarters, armored vehicles, the Navy and long-range radar detection (AWACS) complexes. However, the transformation of diverse forces into a single organism requires constant practice, which we observe in the current exercises, the expert added.

A special place in the Ramstein Flag 2026 program is occupied by testing the survival of aviation in a full-scale war. Due to the vulnerability of fixed bases, NATO pilots are actively training take-off and landing on civilian highways.

— The practice of using highways as runways is far from new; the concept of dispersing aviation in the event of a large-scale conflict has been actively developing since the 1970s. The understanding that stationary airfields would become primary targets made it necessary to design equipment taking into account work in the field," Kornev recalled.

A striking example is the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen fighter, which initially adapted to simplified maintenance on unequipped highway sections by mobile teams. With the expansion of the alliance to Helsinki and Stockholm, the geography of such training in Central and Northern Europe is significantly increasing, and logistics development is reaching a new level.

At the same time, analysts do not rule out that the scenarios of maneuvers go far beyond the usual conventional conflict.

— If we are talking about a non-nuclear strike, the entire range of allied aircraft can be involved in the operation. In the case of a nuclear scenario, the architecture of the forces is sharply narrowed. The purely European component of NATO in this segment is limited to French air-launched aeroballistic missiles and the American tactical nuclear arsenal. Attracting American funds automatically brings the F-35 fighter jets to the forefront as the main carriers," Dmitry Kornev explained.

Which scenario is the priority in the current maneuvers is an open question, but the alliance is obviously considering both options.

The Russian side, represented by the Foreign Ministry and the SVR, regards Ramstein Flag 2026 as a direct preparation for a potential global conflict. Retaliatory monitoring measures have already been launched. The air defense forces of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, as well as the Baltic and Northern Fleets, have been placed on high alert. Russian electronic intelligence (RER) systems have begun intercepting Link 16 channels to analyze the tactics of interaction between the F-35 and AWACS AWACS aircraft, the expert emphasized.

The Mediterranean Trap and road logistics

According to military expert Boris Jerelievsky, the unification of the northern and southern directions within the framework of a single plan has not only military, but also geopolitical significance.

— The choice of Spain as the southern hub is not accidental. Against the background of EU statements about plans to block ships with Russian oil, it is in the Mediterranean Sea that it is easier for the alliance to carry out such operations. It is highly likely that the Spanish part of the maneuvers includes air support for intercepting and escorting naval transports," he explained to Izvestia.

The expert added that the expansion of the bloc at the expense of Finland forced Russia to recreate the Leningrad military District, but it is premature to talk about the absolute dominance of NATO in the Baltic. The Danish Straits were controlled by the West during the Cold War, and the Russian Federation's defensive potential in the region remains powerful.

In addition to tactical tasks, the maneuvers have a logistical component, which military expert Vadim Kozyulin drew attention to. It is known that a program of investments in the modernization of transport infrastructure is currently being actively implemented in Europe: widening roads, increasing the carrying capacity and endurance of bridges. The current maneuvers are their practical test.

— The unit is testing logistics — the mass transfer of heavy equipment along upgraded roads and bridges. They also need to assess how military goods can cross borders between EU states without hindrance and how clearly all bureaucratic procedures are regulated and coordinated today," he concluded.

The second most important task is combat coordination and checking communications between units of different countries. At the same time, the exercise scenario will inevitably be adjusted to reflect current realities. The North Atlantic Alliance analyzes in detail and adopts the experience of military operations in Ukraine. Right now they are rebuilding their military concepts, and at these exercises we will surely see the integration of new tactical approaches and the testing of updated doctrines, the expert summed up.

In parallel with the Ramstein Flag 2026 exercises, the BALTOPS-26 exercises are underway — the alliance has launched large-scale maneuvers at sea and in the air in the immediate vicinity of the Russian borders. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, during the naval phase, NATO forces can work out scenarios such as the blockade of the Kaliningrad region, attacks on Russian land targets and the seizure of civilian vessels.

It is worth noting that this year's naval maneuvers have attracted half as many participants as in the past — a significant part of the alliance's forces has been diverted to the military campaign in the Middle East. Nevertheless, they remain the largest in the region. The Russian Baltic Fleet, as well as the air defense forces on duty, are closely monitoring NATO's actions.