Oh, come on: Ghana wants to replace Chinese fertilizers with Russian ones
Ghana plans to increase fertilizer supplies from Russia after China suspends exports. Izvestia was informed about this at the Ghana-Russian Center for Trade and Relations. The republic has switched to the free distribution of fertilizers to protect farmers, which will multiply the demand for products. Ghana needs stable and cheaper supplies, while Russia is seeking to expand its share in the African market. The most promising destinations may be Kenya, Uganda and South Africa, which are particularly dependent on fertilizers. Experts predict an increase in supplies from Russia, but warn about the risks associated with logistics due to the war in the Middle East.
Russia will help Ghana
Due to supply disruptions in the global fertilizer market, Africa is once again facing the risk of rising prices and shortages. For a number of countries, this has already turned into a direct threat to agriculture and food security. The problem is particularly acute in Ghana, where the authorities are forced to take emergency measures to support farmers after a reduction in supplies from China. In March 2026, Beijing tightened fertilizer exports to protect its market due to supply problems through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Russian Federation can occupy the vacant niche, John Aggrey, general director of the Ghana-Russia Center for Trade and Relations, told Izvestia.
"Russia is seen as a likely source after China suspended fertilizer exports due to the risks associated with the war in Iran,— Aggrey stressed. — Ghana needs stable and cheaper fertilizers and fuel for 2026 and beyond, while Russia is seeking to expand its market share.
According to open data, the import of fertilizers in Ghana in 2025 amounted to $244.5 million. And Russia has already become the largest supplier: about $66 million, or almost 27% of this volume. Immediately after Russia, China came with $55 million.
Ghanaian farmers were experiencing great difficulties even before the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz. They complained about delays in payments, the inability to hire workers or pay for the harvest, especially in the cocoa sector.
The situation in Ghana has resulted in the need for emergency support for farmers. Previously, the agricultural sector was subsidized, but in March 2026, President John Mahama ordered free distribution of fertilizers. This will significantly increase the demand for imports.
— Ghana's agricultural sector (especially oilseeds, corn, bananas, cocoa beans) depends on imported fertilizers, and the growth of agricultural production pushes the local government to develop partnerships with fertilizer producers, including the Russian Federation, - said Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management Management Company. — The volume of Russian fertilizer supplies to Ghana in the next few years may increase by 15-30% while maintaining stable policy and logistics.
However, this particular issue may be problematic. For African countries, the key factor remains not only the availability of supply, but also the cost and logistics of supplies, Vladislav Airapetov, President and Chairman of the Management Board of the MRT Group of companies, told Izvestia. According to him, the competitiveness of Russian fertilizers will be determined not only by the price of the product, but also by the efficiency of routes, the availability of port infrastructure and the terms of financing transactions.
In other words, even a competitive Russian product may lose its advantage if the route turns out to be long, expensive, or unstable. In addition, not every country has enough port facilities, warehouses, and equipment for rapid unloading and regional distribution. There are also sanctions and insurance risks: the more complicated the route and the more intermediaries there are, the more likely it is that the deal will be delayed.
In addition, fertilizers are needed for a specific agricultural season, and if the supply is delayed for several weeks, demand can easily be missed. In Ghana, agriculture is heavily dependent on rains because artificial irrigation systems are poorly developed. In the south of the country, there are usually two rainy periods per year. If sown too early, the seeds may not rise due to insufficient precipitation, and if they are late, the crop will not have time to ripen before the end of the wet period. Because of this, farmers have only a few weeks when the land is already sufficiently prepared for sowing, but the drought has not yet begun.
Prospects for the sale of Russian fertilizers in Africa
Before the war in Iran, about a third of the world's fertilizer exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The UN International Trade Center (ITC) warns that the food security of a number of countries will suffer as a result. Supply chains in Africa have been built for many years, and they are very much tied to the logistics of the Persian Gulf. It will simply not be possible to quickly reorient to other markets.
For republics with a narrow sowing window and dependence on rains, as in Equatorial Africa, the effect will be especially painful. According to the ITC, Kenya and Uganda are among those in the high-risk zone. They are heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilizers from the Persian Gulf countries. And it is this category of fertilizers that is, in fact, the calling card of Russian agricultural exports. South Africa, a very promising market for the Russian Federation, is also under attack.
Nevertheless, the reduction of supplies from China and the restriction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz did not cause the collapse of the agricultural sector in Africa, Dmitry Baranov added. According to him, the demand for products is increasing faster than in most other regions of the world, which is due to population growth on the continent. In 2024, the World Bank estimated Africa's population at 1.29 billion, with annual growth of 2.4%. For example, in 2024, the population of Ghana was 34.4 million, in 2026 it was already over 35.5 million.
"China has traditionally competed fiercely with Russia in the markets of African countries and even recently reset import duties for a number of them," Konstantin Kuguchin, an expert economist and MGIMO lecturer, told Izvestia. — However, as prices rise, China actually blocks its own exports of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Therefore, while Russia is filling the gap in foreign markets due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, China is trying to solve internal problems with price instability, even using government reserves for this purpose.
Demand for fertilizers in Africa remains consistently high and structurally unsatisfied, Vladislav Airapetov said. The region is actively increasing agricultural production, while the level of fertilizer use per hectare is still significantly lower than the global average. This means that the potential for demand growth remains on the horizon for many years, the specialist emphasized.
Experts believe that Ghana in particular and Africa in general are extremely promising areas for the supply of Russian fertilizers.
— And this applies to various types of fertilizers, — said Kuguchin. — Despite the presence of its major exporters in the region (Morocco — for phosphorous; Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria — for nitrogen), Russia can compete due to its comprehensive supply and quality, as well as volume-based prices.
The prospects for the growth of purchases directly depend on two factors, Hayrapetov is sure. The first is the ability of suppliers to build sustainable logistics chains. The second is the availability of long—term contracts and financial instruments that make supplies predictable for both sides.
In general, we can say that the current situation opens a window of opportunity for Russia. But this is not a short-term prospect, but rather an opportunity to gain a foothold in the market through systematic work. For the Russian Federation, this is a chance to strengthen its position in one of the fastest growing markets in the world and turn fertilizer exports into a long—term instrument of economic and political influence in the African direction.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
