Resource curse: Hungary's opposition intends to change oil and gas suppliers

The Hungarian opposition calls for a review of energy cooperation with Russia after the elections. The main opponent of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the leader of the Tisa party, Peter Magyar, told Izvestia about the need to redistribute supplies. However, diversification means avoiding imports from Russia, according to the expert community. A reduction in purchases from the Russian Federation could hit competition and trigger price increases in Hungary. The ruling Fidesz party advocates the preservation of contracts with the Russian Federation. About the opposition's chances of winning the elections and about a possible change in relations between the two countries after the vote — in the Izvestia article.

Fuel import from Russia to Hungary

Parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary in April. The main rivals are Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party and the opposition Tisa, led by MEP Peter Magyar. Russia is Hungary's most important economic partner, as it supplies oil, gas and nuclear fuel to the country. However, Budapest may reconsider energy cooperation with Moscow if the opposition wins.

—We need to diversify our energy sources, and we will do everything possible, because the most important priority for us is energy independence, security and the lowest possible price," he told Izvestia.

At the same time, Russia has always been a reliable supplier of resources for Hungary. Thus, Russia remains the main exporter of nuclear fuel for Paks NPP. Budapest received a shipment of fuel last year, sufficient for the operation of the station until November 2028. The Paksha nuclear power plant, built by Soviet specialists in the 1980s, provides half of all electricity generated in the country and a third of consumption.

Last year, Hungary signed a memorandum of cooperation in the field of nuclear energy with the United States. According to him, Budapest will purchase American nuclear fuel from Westinghouse for the Paksha nuclear power plant in addition to Russian. At the same time, a sharp switch to alternative sources may provoke spikes in electricity prices for the population and industry.

In addition, Russia provides about 80% of Hungary's natural gas needs. In 2025, it purchased a record 7.8 billion cubic meters of "blue fuel" from our country. "I want to make it clear that Hungary cannot be safely supplied with gas without the Turkish Stream pipeline and the Russian gas flowing through it," Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said earlier.

Finally, Russia accounts for about 80-90% of Hungary's total crude oil needs. Earlier, Budapest confirmed plans to purchase Russian raw materials in the amount of 5-5.5 million tons annually in 2025 and 2026, while maintaining long-term contracts with the Russian Federation. Oil imports are carried out through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through the territory of Ukraine.

However, since the end of January, Kiev has been blocking oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, justifying this by damaging the pipeline as a result of a "Russian airstrike." The European Commission demanded that Kiev repair it. Budapest notes that Druzhba is already ready for operation, but oil does not flow through it due to a political decision by the Ukrainian leadership aimed at creating an energy crisis in the country ahead of the elections. In response, Hungary announced the cessation of diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine until the restoration of oil supply through Druzhba.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the Hungarian energy company MOL has already signed the first contracts for the supply of Russian oil by sea — the raw materials will arrive in Croatia, from where they will go on to refineries Hungary and Slovakia. MOL expects that the first shipments will be delivered to the Croatian port of Omisalj in early March, and from there the oil will be transported to the refinery within 5-12 days. At the same time, Hungary and Slovakia have decided to use their strategic reserves so far.

The diversification of energy supplies can seriously affect the Hungarian economy, says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

— By diversification, they mean abandoning Russian supplies. And abandoning this may reduce competition in the market, rather than increase it," he told Izvestia. — The abrupt cessation of gas and oil supplies from Russia is fraught with accelerating inflation for Hungary, because the cost of fuel will increase. Accordingly, if the gas is cut off, then any alternative will also be more expensive. This means that all this will be included in housing and communal services tariffs, that is, primarily in heating, partly in the cost of electricity, hot water, and so on.

Not to the service, but to Druzhba: Hungary and Slovakia wanted Russian oil supplies through Croatia

Zagreb makes it clear that this is possible only within the framework of EU and US rules.

What to expect from the Hungarian elections

In general, relations with Russia are one of the central and most pressing topics of the election campaign in Hungary. The situation is unique in that for the first time in 16 years, Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party is seriously in danger of losing: the opposition Tisa, led by Peter Magyar, is leading in many polls. For example, according to the Publicus Institute, Tisa is ahead of Fidesz by about 8 percentage points. According to the results of the Idea Institute survey, which was conducted from January 31 to February 6, 48% of the undecided voters supported Tisa, and 38% supported Orban's party. At the same time, the latest research by the Nezopont institute showed that 46% of Hungarians are ready to vote for Fidesz, and 40% for Tisza.

The ruling party stands for the preservation of sovereignty and energy stability. In addition, Orban emphasizes that under his leadership Hungary will not support arms supplies to Kiev and Ukraine's accession to the EU, as this will turn into a disaster for Hungary and Europe.

— We will not allow a ban on the import of Russian oil and gas — without them there will be no reduction in the cost of utilities and affordable energy for Hungarian families. And we will not allow Ukraine to be pushed into the European Union within two years, violating EU laws, this would mean the import of war," Viktor Orban said earlier.

The opposition Tisa party promises normalization of Budapest's relations with Brussels. Magyar declares that Hungary must stop "rushing between East and West" and take a clear place in the EU and NATO.

The election campaign in the country is already accompanied by scandals. So, Peter Magyar is suspected of using drugs at one of the parties in 2024. It is extremely difficult to assess who can really win the elections in Hungary, says political analyst Gabor Stier. At the moment, the analyst estimates the chances of the parties as 50-50.

— Sociological institutes close to the government say that they are 5-10% ahead of Fidesz. The institutions that are against Fidesz claim that Peter Magyar's party is leading by a margin of 10%," he told Izvestia. — On the one hand, it is a struggle between generations. But, on the other hand, Hungarian society is afraid to change something and is afraid of uncertainty.

At the same time, the expert emphasizes that if Peter Magyar's party wins, relations between Hungary and Russia are likely to worsen, and the number of contacts will decrease. Budapest will take positions similar to Poland and other mainstream European governments, Gabor Stier believes.