Progress has begun: the meeting in Geneva may set a roadmap for a settlement
The next round of negotiations on Ukraine with an updated list of participants will start in Geneva on February 17. Moscow will be represented by Vladimir Medinsky, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, which the Kremlin attributes to the expansion of the agenda. One of the topics could be an energy truce. Experts note that a pause in attacks on such enterprises in Ukraine is unprofitable for Russia, since the infrastructure works in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, it is important that the delegations of the United States, Russia and Ukraine work out a roadmap in the "spirit of Anchorage," Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, told Izvestia. At the same time, the Europeans still remain on the periphery of the settlement: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio skipped the meeting on Ukraine in Munich, instead holding talks in Slovakia and Hungary. About what levers of influence Washington can use on Kiev, see the Izvestia article.
New round of negotiations in Geneva
On the eve of the trilateral talks in Geneva, scheduled for February 17-18, the delegations underwent significant changes. In particular, the Russian delegation will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, and Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Foreign Minister, will also be included in it. In total, the mission will now include up to 20 people. At the same time, Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, who led the Russian negotiators at meetings in the UAE, retained his place in the team.
The changes in the composition of the teams are due to the different nature of the meeting. According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, the agenda in Geneva will be much broader than in Abu Dhabi, where only security issues were discussed - now the parties will have to touch on the topic of territories.
"The President is in constant contact with our negotiators,— Dmitry Peskov said, answering a question from Izvestia at a briefing. — And, of course, they receive detailed instructions on the eve of departure.
Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation, is also expected to be present in Geneva, but he will work in a different direction. It is likely that we will talk about groups to restore economic cooperation between the United States and Russia — this format became known after contacts in the UAE. At the same time, the composition of the American delegation remained unchanged: Special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law of the US President Jared Kushner will again take part in the discussions.
One of the central topics of the Geneva round may be an "energy truce," according to media reports. This is especially important for Ukraine in the context of regular power outages in Kiev and other major cities. The head of Ukraine's largest private energy holding company, DTEK, warned back in Davos: without an end to attacks on critical infrastructure, the country will face a humanitarian catastrophe.
Until Kiev accepts Moscow's conditions, it would be illogical for Russia to give up the opportunity to strike at Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which is actively used to supply the Armed Forces and produce weapons, Pavel Feldman, professor at the Academy of Labor and Social Relations, told Izvestia.
"The ability to hit any military target on the territory of Ukraine with high—precision missiles and drones is a strategic advantage of Moscow," the expert emphasized.
Earlier, the Russian Federation had already taken a voluntary step, declaring a unilateral cease-fire on energy facilities in Ukraine from January 25 to February 1. Vladimir Zelensky then admitted that the Russian side had respected the rejection of "targeted" strikes. In the current circumstances, this item may become one of the key items on the agenda.
At the same time, it is important that the Ukrainian delegation demonstrate negotiability in Geneva, since before that all Kiev's efforts were aimed at confusing the settlement process, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.
— It is necessary for the official delegations of Russia, Ukraine and the United States to work out some kind of roadmap for moving forward in the "spirit of Anchorage." We talk about this all the time, because if they (Ukrainians. — Ed.) they want to negotiate, they will do it. But if they don't want to negotiate, they will confuse everything, shorten it, and reinterpret it," he added.
Should we expect breakthrough results?
The issues of Donbass and the status of the Zaporizhia NPP remain the most difficult topics. Because of this, it is unclear whether Moscow and Kiev will be able to achieve a real result. The United States could contribute to this at this stage. Washington has both military and political tools to influence the decisions of the Kiev regime, Evgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts (ISIP) of the RUDN University, said in a conversation with Izvestia. However, it is still unclear whether the Americans will use these levers.
"The very fact that these topics are being put on the agenda of the negotiations is really important and gives a modest hope that the Kiev regime, despite the fury in the information space, will adequately assess the proposals that are currently in force on our part and on the part of the Americans," the expert noted.
According to media reports, Kiev has long expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that Washington too often discusses concessions related to Ukraine rather than Russia. Zelensky, who hopes for "serious and meaningful" negotiations, seems that the parties are still "talking about different things." He personally links further progress with the exchange of prisoners and the coordination of a mission to comply with the ceasefire.
The latter, in turn, is directly related to the possibility of holding a referendum on territorial concessions and presidential elections in Ukraine. Earlier it was reported that Washington and Kiev agreed on a "framework" for a peaceful settlement, providing for the expression of the will of the people on the points of the agreement by May 15. It was reported that Zelensky would announce referendums on February 24, but he denied these dates, but not the information about the elections themselves, emphasizing only the need for strict security guarantees.
The Americans "hear" the Russian side in terms of assessments of the legitimacy of the current government in Ukraine, Semibratov stressed.
— This is a negotiating position, and if the parties, primarily the Kiev regime, are interested, the Americans will probably be ready to adjust the deadlines. Therefore, strict deadlines are rather a demonstration of the seriousness of intentions," he added.
Moscow, for its part, has also indicated its readiness to move forward on this issue. According to Galuzin, Russia may discuss with Western partners the possibility of introducing external governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations solely for the legitimate conduct of elections.
Europe's role in the settlement
At the same time, the representation of Europeans in the negotiations is still officially reduced to zero. The Russian side has repeatedly stressed the destructive nature of their participation in the peaceful settlement at this stage, and Washington is not shy about openly demonstrating its changed position towards its overseas allies. At the Munich conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio changed his mind at the last moment about participating in a meeting of Europeans on Ukraine, where he was expected with special trepidation. He explained his absence by overlaps in the schedule.
Marco Rubio
But similar problems did not arise when he met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Bratislava on February 15, and the next day, in Budapest, with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. Both politicians are under constant pressure in the European Union, including because of their position on the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the need for dialogue with Moscow. Rubio's meeting with them in the run-up to the Geneva meetings is probably not accidental.
The topic of dialogue with Moscow is becoming more and more mainstream on the European agenda. French President Emmanuel Macron said at the Munich Conference on February 13 that he had decided to build such a channel and seek a "European" approach to dialogue. He also confirmed the visit of his high-ranking diplomat to Moscow on February 3.
Even those political forces that remain part of the "globalists" understand that in the current situation, Europe needs to resume at least a minimal dialogue with Moscow, Semibratov noted. However, despite this trend, Europe is unlikely to become the fourth party in the negotiations, the expert concluded.
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