Working platform: which scenario of settlement in Ukraine will be discussed in Geneva
The trilateral negotiations on the settlement of the conflict are moving to Geneva. The parties can discuss new aspects of a future settlement there, including external governance in Ukraine for the conduct of elections. Moscow's proposal to stop the strikes during the vote remains in place. At the same time, Kiev insists on expanded security guarantees from the United States, accusing them of insufficient support. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are escalating ahead of the negotiations, inflicting massive strikes on civilian infrastructure, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. Nevertheless, according to experts, the conflict in Ukraine may end as early as 2026. But it will take much more time to create a new security system in Europe.
The atmosphere before the Geneva talks
As the negotiation process on the Ukrainian settlement progresses, the parties are trying different formats. After two relatively successful rounds in Abu Dhabi, representatives of Russia, the United States and Ukraine will meet in Geneva on February 17-18. This European country is not a member of either NATO or the EU, and holds the OSCE chairmanship, but Moscow has repeatedly expressed doubts about the impartiality of its position.
Nevertheless, the choice of such a historically significant site inspires some optimism. In November 2025, it was in Geneva that representatives of the United States, Ukraine and Europe discussed the American peace plan, various variations of which still remain at the heart of a potential settlement. And in 2021, the last face-to-face meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden took place there.
In the future, Geneva may play a role in the settlement, as the OSCE, albeit ambiguously, was still monitoring the implementation of the Minsk agreements, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. Holding the talks in Geneva also reflects Russia's willingness to engage in dialogue with Europe as a whole, he believes.
This time, the Russian delegation will be headed by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, and it will include at least 15 people in total. The United States will continue to be represented by Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the American leader's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. On the Ukrainian side, the delegation will include, according to preliminary data, Kirill Budanov, head of Zelensky's office (listed in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist), Andrei Ignatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergey Kislitsa, Deputy Foreign Minister, and Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the GUR.
Kiev and Washington have already held preliminary consultations at the Munich Conference. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed security issues and deepening defense and economic partnership with Vladimir Zelensky. Before that, the latter had managed to accuse the United States of insufficient support — the last time such statements in the Oval Office ended in a grand fiasco and a temporary suspension of aid.
Now, Rubio's attitude towards European representatives is more likely to be a scandal. The head of the State Department canceled all scheduled meetings with them in Munich. Thus, the United States is pushing Ukraine to sign a peace treaty with the Russian Federation or at least make concessions, which Zelensky has already publicly acknowledged.
This situation is clearly not in favor of Ukraine, which is why Kiev traditionally escalates the situation before negotiations. On February 15, more than 170 APU drones were shot down over the Bryansk region during a massive attack, and at least 18 kamikaze drones were eliminated on approach to Moscow. The Ukrainian Armed Forces is increasing attacks on the civilian infrastructure of the Russian border region, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
"We are witnessing a significant escalation and increase in the intensity of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Belgorod and Kherson directions," he said.
Ukraine is escalating, among other things, due to Russia's advance on the battlefield. Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov said that the Russian army liberated 12 settlements in two weeks of February, despite the harsh winter conditions.
What issues will be discussed at the Geneva talks?
The Ukrainian conflict may end in 2026-2027, former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker told Izvestia. In his opinion, the United States needs to increase pressure on Russia, which Trump does not want, so the settlement process may drag on into next year.
"We could speed things up, but if not this year, then next year,— Volker said. — Everything is moving in this direction.
If we mean by the settlement the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, then there is a possibility to stop them as early as 2026, Andrei Kortunov believes. But if we are talking about creating a solid, reliable, inclusive security system on the European continent, then it will take much more time and a different composition of participants, the expert added.
The range of issues at the Geneva talks will be broader than at the meetings in the UAE, which follows from the changed composition of the Russian delegation, Kortunov said.
"If the Emirates discussed mainly technical and military issues, then Geneva will probably discuss more general political topics," the expert stressed. — It can be assumed that the Russian demands that have already been voiced will receive additional development: issues of territory, the post-war status of Ukraine, and the Russian language.
In particular, the meeting may raise the issue of conducting external governance in Kiev for the conduct of elections, after which a peace treaty can be discussed. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said earlier that Russia was ready to discuss the issue with the United States and the EU. Back in March 2025, Vladimir Putin proposed introducing external governance of Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations. History already knows cases when voting took place under external control, for example, in the countries of the former Yugoslavia.
The Russian President has repeatedly stressed the impossibility of a legal procedure for concluding an agreement with an illegitimate government. Vladimir Zelensky's term of office expired back in May 2024, and elections are not being held due to martial law. In Munich, the Ukrainian leader noted that he was ready to hold presidential elections, but only on condition of a two-month ceasefire. Recall that the head of the Russian Federation offered to ensure security during the elections and the proposal remains in force, Galuzin stressed.
On the other hand, at the meeting in the UAE, apparently, the issue of territories remained unresolved — the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass, as well as security guarantees that Ukraine wants to receive from Western countries. Kiev has already allegedly received a 15-year guarantee offer from Washington, but wants to increase it to 30-50. Kiev will not be able to receive such guarantees before signing a peace agreement, Kurt Volker is sure.
The former US special representative for Ukraine also added that the implementation of security guarantees involves the deployment of US and EU troops. The Russian side has repeatedly stressed that it opposes the deployment of NATO soldiers in Ukraine. Russia will consider sending troops from Western countries as an intervention, as previously stated by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
It is also difficult to reach a compromise on the creation of a free economic zone in Donbass, another potential topic in the upcoming negotiations. The Kremlin continues to insist on the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass to stop the fighting. Therefore, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine were skeptical about the idea of a SEZ — the parties are not ready to discuss future actions in this direction yet, Kortunov concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
