February frosts: the market expects the key to remain at the level of 16%
The market expects the key rate to remain at 16% at the February 13 meeting, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. At the beginning of the year, price growth accelerated, and business inflation expectations jumped, so the regulator is likely to take a break at the first meetings of the board of directors. If you start reducing the rate too early, it can negate the results of a tough policy throughout 2025. When the Central Bank will continue to lower the key rate, see the Izvestia article.
How the Central Bank will change the key rate in February
The Central Bank will keep the key rate at 16% following the meeting next Friday, February 13, according to a consensus survey from Izvestia. Half of the 17 analysts and market participants surveyed by the editorial board are confident that the regulator will leave the monetary policy unchanged. Five more experts admit both maintaining and slightly reducing the rate, mainly within 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, three experts consider the most likely scenario to be a softening of the PREP to 15.5%.
In general, there is still a foundation for further rate cuts, according to Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg. However, given the cautious position of the regulator, the most likely outcome of the February meeting is to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum.
While the probability of a pause is higher, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, agreed. As the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, noted at a press conference following the December meeting, in the coming months, the focus will be on "how prices, as well as the expectations of people and businesses, will react to the increase in VAT and tariffs, and how the situation with other pro-inflationary and disinflationary risks will develop — will they intensify or weaken."
According to recently published data from the Central Bank, it is clear that there is a risk of maintaining high inflation expectations of the population and businesses. And this can lengthen the "tail" of price growth, added Natalia Pyrieva, head of the analytical department at Cifra Broker.
At the same time, demand is gradually slowing down, and this limits the ability to raise prices, said the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Dom Bank.Russian Federation" by Zhanna Smirnova.
The acceleration of inflation in January was mainly caused by the influence of one-time supply-side factors, Olga Belenkaya is sure. At the same time, the pressure on price growth from the demand side is decreasing, she agreed.
Additionally, the "behavioral" factor is important: inflation is now fueled not only by prices, but also by expectations — when businesses and consumers anticipate further price increases in advance, said Ilya Kuzminykh, a junior analyst at KIT Finance's financial market analysis department.
A slowdown in price growth is possible if loans grow more slowly and fiscal policy becomes more restrained, Olga Belenkaya believes. In 2025, credit growth slowed down and, with the exception of mortgages, generally turned out to be close to the forecasts of the Bank of Russia.
Why prices are rising in Russia
If one-time factors are not taken into account, sustained inflation has the potential to slow down, says Viktor Grigoriev from Bank Saint Petersburg. According to him, monetary data also indicate this: the money supply in the economy, including cash and non-cash funds, increased by 10.6% in 2025. This trend is close to the "reference" years 2017-2019, when inflation remained near the target of the Bank of Russia. He also noted that it is possible that the sharp jump in prices in January is partly an advance, after which inflation may be weaker in the remaining months of the year.
According to Ilya Kuzmin, three key factors will influence the further growth rates of prices. The first is whether businesses will continue to shift adjusted VAT into prices or whether this effect will begin to fade, especially in the service sector and in contracts where the cost is reviewed with a delay. The second is expectations and behavior: whether entrepreneurs will continue to increase prices "with a margin" and how quickly people will stop perceiving this as the norm. The third is the ruble exchange rate and imports, as well as the general cooling of demand against the background of the already high key interest rate.
Companies' inflation expectations have increased, but this surge is likely to fade quickly, said Andrey Vanin, head of Investment Advisory at Gazprombank Investments. At the same time, he noted that the Bank of Russia fears the "secondary effects" of high inflation, that is, a steady increase in expectations. Therefore, the regulator may take a break to assess this factor, the expert added.
The pro-inflationary effect of a set of one-time factors in January is still higher than expected by the Bank of Russia. However, in the coming months, price growth should slow down due to tight monetary policy and a strong ruble, said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.
What will influence rate decisions in 2026
Following the results of the last meeting, the Bank of Russia gave a signal: "further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations," Mikhail Vasiliev added. Therefore, in his opinion, the regulator will carefully reduce the key rate from the current 16 to 13% by the end of the year.
A steady decrease in inflation in February will help mitigate PREP in the future, says Tatyana Belyanchikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. If the indicator is close to the regulator's target (4%), then this will become a significant factor.
However, she warned that new or escalating geopolitical risks could increase uncertainty, cause capital outflows and a weakening of the ruble, which would add to inflationary pressures. In this case, the Bank of Russia may exercise caution and not rush to reduce the key rate.
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