Cuba is being hacked: will the US fuel blockade lead to regime change on the island
The United States' bet on mass protests by Cubans against the backdrop of the economic blockade will not work, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Havana already has experience in dealing with large-scale unrest, and Washington's external pressure may even rally the local population. Nevertheless, Cuba is facing difficult times, as the main oil exporters to the island, Venezuela and Mexico— have stopped or significantly reduced their supplies. About whether the fuel blockade will paralyze the Cuban economy and what other scenarios are being considered in the White House, see the Izvestia article.
Is Cuba facing economic collapse
The United States is tightening its grip on the "regimes" it dislikes. The day before, President Donald Trump declared a state of emergency due to the "threat to national security" from Cuba. He justified his decision by saying that Havana had allegedly taken "extraordinary measures" that were damaging the country. The decree clarifies that the Cuban authorities cooperate with states and groups hostile to the United States, including Russia, China, Iran, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. The Russian radio-electronic center in the suburb of the capital Lourdes is given as an example.
"Cuba hosts the largest Russian electronic intelligence facility, which is trying to steal classified information that poses a national threat to the United States," the document says.
It is noteworthy that the Lourdes facility was officially closed in 2002, and in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied information about the resumption of its work.
In fact, there is also an American facility on the island — the naval base in Guantanamo Bay, leased in 1903 after the Spanish-American War.
Washington will now be able to impose additional duties on imports from any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to the island. The Trump administration has long threatened Havana with economic collapse and regime change. The rhetoric intensified immediately after the military operation in Venezuela, when the Americans captured and extradited President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to the United States.
— Of course, we want to see regime change [in Cuba]. However, this does not mean that we are going to take any steps right now, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on January 28.
In his social network Truth Social, Trump even approved the idea of one of the users to appoint Rubio as the future president of Cuba. He was also expected to take a managerial post in Venezuela.
Washington's plan today is to provoke internal protests in Cuba due to a sharp deterioration in the economic situation, Viktor Kheifets, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia. He recalled that Mexico is a more important supplier of oil to Cuba than Venezuela, which stopped exporting hydrocarbons to the island after Maduro's capture. According to Kpler, in 2025, Mexico sold to Cuba an average of 12 thousand barrels per day (44% of the total volume of oil imports to the island), and Venezuela — 9.5 thousand barrels (34%).
After the operation with Maduro, as reported by Reuters, the United States increased pressure on Mexico City even more. On January 26, Bloomberg wrote that the Mexican state oil company Pemex had stopped shipping oil to Havana. Mexico is currently taking an ambivalent position, and the final decision on whether to continue supplying oil to Cuba or not has not yet been made, said Andrei Pyatakov, a leading researcher at the ILA RAS. According to him, the Cuban authorities will try to find alternative sources for the purchase of energy resources.
— There is a global niche of private corporations that have always seen great potential for cooperation with Cuba. These may be companies, including from China and from African countries, for which Cuba remains a symbol of struggle, the expert believes.
At the same time, it will be unprofitable for Russia, which has almost no trade with the United States and will not lose anything from the new duties, to increase its oil supplies to the island. The countries are too far apart, which will cause both logistical and financial problems, Viktor Kheifets believes. Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the US plans to increase pressure on Cuba "have no basis" and "cause deep concern."
Difficult times lie ahead for Cuba, but it's too early to talk about a complete collapse of the economy, experts believe. In 2025, the country has experienced four major blackouts, and after the blockade, their number may increase. According to Kpler analysts, at the current level of consumption, Cuba has enough oil reserves for 15-20 days. Nevertheless, the country had already experienced something similar in the 1990s after the collapse of the USSR. Then, despite the severe crisis, Havana was able to adapt to the new conditions and avoid economic shutdown.
Will the US bet on the Cuban protests work?
The White House primarily hopes that the Cuban regime will fall by itself due to the economic collapse. Mass anti-government rallies could speed up the process, but they can also have the opposite effect.
— Mass protests are unlikely. On the contrary, such pressure causes cohesion. Moreover, the entire active Cuban opposition is in the United States," notes Andrei Pyatakov.
An increase in the number of blackouts and a shortage of electricity in general can indeed lead to demonstrations, but it is not a fact that they will be massive and provoke regime change, adds Viktor Kheifets. He recalled that the Cuban authorities were able to cope with the previous riots. We are talking about a series of the largest anti-government protests since the 1990s in Havana and other major cities, which began in the summer of 2021 after the introduction of rationing of food and medicines.
If betting on mass riots does not work, the United States will move on to other options, experts predict. In mid-January, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration began looking for those among the government of the republic who could facilitate a change of power on the island by the end of 2026. At the same time, according to the newspaper, the United States still does not have a specific plan of action, although they consider the Venezuelan scenario "as a model of action and a warning." A full-fledged naval blockade is also possible.
— Cuba is much closer to the United States than Venezuela. If they intercepted dozens of tankers near Venezuela, then what about Cuba. Examples of Cuba's maritime "quarantine" were during the Caribbean crisis (in 1962, the United States inspected all ships coming to the island within a radius of 800, and later 500 nautical miles from the island. — Ed.), — says Victor Kheifets.
Nevertheless, Cuba seems ready to defend itself. Its president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, stressed: "There is no need to intimidate us, your current threats remind us of everything that was threatened by almost all previous US administrations, led by hawks."
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