Marriageable daughters: Lukoil may gain $12 billion from the sale of foreign assets

The sale of foreign assets could bring Lukoil $10-12 billion, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The company has entered into an agreement with the American investment fund Carlyle on the sale of LUKOIL International GmbH, its 100% subsidiary. But everything will depend on the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury, which must issue a permit for the transaction. The Russian side will also not be able to use the money from the sale without the permission of the US Treasury or before the lifting of sanctions. In this regard, the closing of the deal, according to experts, will largely depend on the course of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and the general geopolitical situation.

What have Lukoil and Carlyle agreed on?

Russia's Lukoil has entered into an agreement with the American investment fund Carlyle on the sale of LUKOIL International GmbH, a 100% subsidiary of the group's foreign assets. This statement was made by both companies.

"The perimeter of the transaction does not include assets in Kazakhstan, which will remain owned by the Lukoil Group and will continue to operate under the relevant license," the Lukoil press service said.

The headquarters of the Lukoil company in Moscow

Photo: REUTERS/Ramil Sitdikov

At the same time, as noted in the message, "the concluded agreement is not exclusive to the company and depends on the fulfillment of a number of suspensive conditions, including obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals, including permission for the deal with Carlyle from the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury (OFAC)."

Lukoil also noted that "the company continues negotiations with other potential buyers."

Lukoil Neftochim Burgas Refinery in Bulgaria

Photo: RIA Novosti/Yuri Somov

Carlyle's statement notes that "Carlyle's approach to LUKOIL International will focus on ensuring operational continuity, preserving jobs, stabilizing the asset base, and maintaining safe and reliable operations across the portfolio through dedicated oversight and international operational capabilities."

The companies did not disclose the terms and amount of the deal. Izvestia has sent relevant requests to the US Treasury, Carlyle and Lukoil.

When and for how much can Lukoil's assets be sold

At the end of October 2025, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Lukoil. A few days after that, the company announced that it intended to sell its foreign assets. After information appeared in the media last fall that the American investment fund Carlyle Group was the main contender for LUKOIL International, OFAC issued general license No. 131 allowing US citizens to negotiate with the Russian company. At the same time, the US Treasury issued an explanation according to which, even if the sale takes place, the proceeds will be frozen until the sanctions against the oil company are fully lifted. After that, the US Treasury has already extended the permission to do business with foreign assets of the Russian company several times. It is currently valid until February 28.

The Ministry of Finance in Washington

Photo: RIA Novosti/Alexey Agaryshev

Experts believe that the speed of closing a deal will depend on several factors. First of all, it depends on the price of the issue and the possibility of Lukoil receiving funds.

According to Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, "the issue is not the prospect of closing the deal itself, but the permission to withdraw funds to accounts available to Lukoil and the amount of these funds."

— If the appropriate permits are obtained, and the offer does not turn out to be abnormally low, the deal will be closed. At the same time, attempts to delay the negotiations in order to extend the current license in order to wait for the end of the conflict (Russian-Ukrainian — Editor's note) cannot be ruled out," the expert said.

The company's market value, according to domestic and foreign experts, ranges from $14 to $22 billion. Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting, believes that Lukoil's foreign assets will be sold for $10-12 billion. This discount, in his opinion, "reflects not the quality of the assets themselves, but regulatory constraints and the complexity of cash flow withdrawal."

Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia Mayorova

In general, the lawyers interviewed by Izvestia believe that it is unlikely to be possible to close the deal before the end of February. According to Sofya Lukinova, head of the legal department at VMT Consult, in addition to obtaining OFAC permits, additional deadlines will be required for approvals in the countries where the assets are located.

Vladislav Bedrosov, Senior Associate at VEGAS LEX's Special Projects Practice, noted that the implementation of the terms of agreements of this scale usually takes a long period of time.

— In this case, it would not be a mistake to expect a probable extension of the license until the end of March and, if necessary, for a longer period, — said the lawyer.

At the same time, he stressed that "any disposal of the proceeds will require at least the approval of OFAC or the complete lifting of sanctions from the oil company." In the meantime, according to him, taking into account the explanations of OFAC, "funds from the sale of assets will initially be placed in accounts under the jurisdiction of the United States."

What is the future fate of the assets

Carlyle is, in fact, a classic financial investor, and in this sense it hardly considers Lukoil's assets as a long-term possession. Most likely, we are talking about a purchase with a horizon of three to seven years, followed by resale either to a strategic player or through splitting the portfolio by region, Dmitry Kasatkin believes.

Oil storage facility of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Photo: RIA Novosti/Vitaly Timkiv

At the same time, according to him, the Kazakh assets were logically moved beyond the perimeter of the transaction.

— It is a stable jurisdiction with valid licenses and a special attitude of regulators to the change of ownership. Lukoil will still be able to continue doing business in the country in the future, even after being taken over (or bought out) by Kazakhstani partners," he said. The expert estimated these assets at $1.5 billion.

The Russian company has stakes in the Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields, and the Common Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) also runs through the republic. Kazakhstan, in turn, has sent an appeal to the US authorities regarding the purchase of Lukoil's stake in the country's projects, the country's Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on January 28.

Apparently, the company does not give up hope of extending the license for Kazakhstani assets, Alexander Frolov believes. In addition, the current diplomatic process may give hope to Lukoil's management that the conflict will be resolved before the expiration of the existing license, which suggests that sanctions will gradually begin to be lifted.

Back in the fall of 2025, the Carlyle Foundation was considered the main contender for the purchase of Lukoil's foreign assets, said Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult. At the same time, Lukoil stressed in its message that it was continuing negotiations with other potential buyers. This most likely means that there is serious bargaining going on both in terms of price and terms of the deal, including receiving money after it is closed, she believes.

Photo: REUTERS/Octav Ganea

According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association of Consumers and Suppliers of Energy Resources, without receiving funds, the transaction will not have a logical conclusion and may actually be regarded as "theft."