Tariff and Plan: New US duties may disrupt trade truce with China

China, as Iran's key trading partner, may respond with mirror measures to Donald Trump's new tariffs. On January 12, the American president imposed tariffs of 25% against countries doing business with Tehran. India and Turkey are also among its main counterparties. In 11 months of 2025, the trade turnover between the United States and China has already dropped by almost 20% due to mutual duties and amounted to more than $ 500 billion, but in the fall the countries managed to come to an agreement. To what extent the situation may worsen now and whether the markets will be in a fever because of this, see the Izvestia article.

How will China respond to Trump's tariffs against Iran's partners

It is highly likely that China will respond with mirror measures to the new duties of the American President Donald Trump, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On January 12, the American leader announced duties of 25% against Iran's trading partners. He wrote on his Truth Social network that such an order is final and cannot be appealed.

There is no official document on this issue on the White House website yet. Iran's leading trading partners include China, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and India, said Adam Abdulatipov, senior analyst at BCS World Investments. In general, Tehran directly or indirectly trades with dozens of countries — it sells energy resources and petrochemical products, and buys equipment, cars, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products and consumer goods, the expert added.

According to Iranian media reports, Tehran's non-oil foreign trade turnover exceeded $75 billion in the first eight months of 2025.

The main impact of such duties falls on Beijing, which is the main buyer of Iranian oil and a key supplier of almost all goods, from industrial to high—tech, said Sergey Demidenko, Dean of the Faculty of Political Studies at the ION Presidential Academy.

According to Chinese customs, in the first 11 months of 2025, China exported $6.2 billion worth of goods to Iran and imported $2.85 billion, not counting oil, the volume of which Beijing does not disclose, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. He added: the main export item is hydrocarbons.

The Chinese authorities have already commented on the statement of the American leader. According to them, Washington is pushing its trading partners away with such actions, and Trump's measure is "direct pressure and coercion."

— China's position on the issue of duties is very clear, we have always believed that there are no winners in the tariff war. China will resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.

In the event of an actual increase in duties against China, it is logical to expect retaliatory measures. First of all, this is a mirror increase in tariffs, especially if the United States does not have exceptions for certain categories of goods, believes Yuri Ichkitidze, macroeconomist at Freedom Finance Global. In addition, it is possible that Beijing uses the mechanisms that it used earlier: it will impose restrictions on the export of rare earth metals or create barriers to the import of American high-tech products, the expert believes. According to Kirill Seleznev, an expert on the Garda Capital stock market, China may also file a lawsuit with the WTO for violating international law.

In previous years, the trade turnover between China and the United States increased — by the end of 2024, it increased by 3.7%, amounting to $688 billion. Almost immediately after his return to the White House in January 2025, Trump launched a large-scale trade war against China — mutual duties were above 100%. Despite the fact that the countries managed to agree not to impose maximum tariffs, their trade turnover has already dropped by 17.5% to $514 billion in the first 11 months of last year.

Trump's duties against Iran's partners and the mirror measures of the Chinese may violate the trade truce that Donald Trump concluded with Xi Jinping last fall, says financial adviser and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, there is a risk of an aggravation of the situation. However, so far, the peak of the conflict between the countries — for example, duties above 100%, as in the spring of 2025 — is unlikely.

Is a US military strike on Iran possible

Meanwhile, the United States is seriously considering intervention in Iran in response to Tehran's actions to suppress the protests. The unrest, which began on December 28 and was initially triggered by a sharp drop in the local rial, quickly turned into one of the most serious threats to the Islamic leadership.

It is difficult to draw up an accurate picture of what is happening: the authorities periodically announce the stabilization of the situation and even try to engage in dialogue with citizens. In particular, President Masoud Pezeshkian promised to "listen to the voice of the people" to carry out economic reforms. "We call on Iranians to take to the streets to clearly express their demands and not allow the instigators of unrest to distort the causes of the current protests," he said.

On the other hand, pogroms and arson continue. According to information from numerous agencies, the number of victims is growing. The data varies — it is difficult to provide them, including, probably, due to the disconnected Internet in the republic. According to media reports, the death toll as a result of the protests has reached 646 people, and the number of detainees has exceeded 10,000.

On the night of January 12, Donald Trump said that his administration was indeed working on "several very strong options." On January 13, according to The Wall Street Journal, the US president will convene a special meeting on this issue.

In addition to military strikes, Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kane are expected to consider other scenarios: the use of "cyber weapons" against Iranian military and civilian infrastructure, support for anti-government Internet resources, and finally, providing Starlink terminals for protesters to overcome internet blocking.

— Given Trump's unwillingness to get involved in protracted armed conflicts at the initial stages, additional "pumping" of the protesters is most likely through the provision of weapons, information and Starlink terminals. Cyber operations are also possible to discredit Iranian government institutions or disable critical infrastructure facilities. One should not discount the possible attempt to repeat the "Maduro case" in the event of the capture of Ali Khamenei or another key Iranian official, for example, the commander of the IRGC or the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said orientalist Leonid Tsukanov.

It is precisely military intervention that Israel can support — at least, the possibility of new attacks on Iran has been discussed for the past few months. During talks with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in late December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly even tried to get the approval of the American president.

West Jerusalem is confident that Tehran is reviving its nuclear program after the American strikes on key facilities last June. However, the United States prefers to leave similar attacks this time as a last resort, Tsukanov believes.

— The United States is not in a hurry to play the "Israeli card" yet, although West Jerusalem is demonstrating its willingness to join the conflict. So far, Israel's main task is still to fuel the protests," he believes.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on January 13 that sanctions against Iran would be proposed immediately.

How Trump's tariffs will affect Russia and the global economy

Russia is not one of Iran's key business partners, with a mutual trade turnover of about $5 billion expected by the end of 2025. And our country's trade with the United States, in turn, reached a historic low of $3.5 billion back in 2024. Nevertheless, the United States retains imports from our country only for a limited range of strategically important goods, such as fertilizers and precious metals, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. Despite the fact that there has already been an increase in bilateral trade in 2025, the impact on Russia will be minimal, even if the United States imposes additional duties of 25% against us.

There is some possibility that China may start buying more raw materials from Russia instead of Iranian, but this may be difficult. At the same time, other countries that traded with Tehran are unlikely to switch to energy resources from Russia due to US sanctions against oil companies, the expert believes.

In general, the global economy has now become less sensitive to announcements of new duties, Olga Belenkaya is sure. The direct effect of the measures is likely to be small, unless the United States actually goes to the complete destruction of the fragile trade truce with China. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's recent steps show that geopolitics is the main risk to the global economy, the situation is changing rapidly and its further development is unpredictable.

Iran has been under sanctions for a long time, so its partners have experience in trading without restrictions, Arina Surkova, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University, recalled. For example, China is indirectly disguising purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil by purchasing it under the guise of Malaysian oil, Olga Belenkaya noted.

However, uncertainty and volatility in the energy markets are expected to increase. For example, Brent oil prices rose to $64 per barrel on January 12 amid tensions around Iran, but quickly rolled back, Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets recalled.

Duties against Tehran are unlikely to affect the US stock market, says Yuri Ichkitidze from Freedom Finance Global. He added: the situation will have a negative impact on the Chinese market, but in the short term. Beijing has managed to diversify its exports to Southeast Asia and Africa, reducing its trade with America, and this trend will continue.

At the same time, the impact of Iranian duties on the Moscow Exchange index will be neutral, independent expert Andrei Barkhota believes. Russia trades little with Iran and the United States compared to other partners, so the direct impact on corporate performance and the market is minimal. The duties will add a negative background, Igor Rastorguev continued, but the fate of the Russian market in 2026 will be decided by other factors - negotiations on Ukraine, a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate and oil prices.