Sit down at the table: Europe wants to participate in the discussion of the US plan for Ukraine

Europe wants to join the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement. At the same time, not in the person of the European Union, but specific countries — France, Great Britain and Germany, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. Meanwhile, the media published a 28-point plan developed by the United States. The Pentagon delegation has already discussed it with Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev. The agreement, among other things, provides for Russia's control over the entire Donbas, a sharp reduction in the number of Armed Forces and Ukraine's abandonment of a number of long-range systems. In Brussels, they distance themselves from Washington's initiative and call the option under discussion the actual surrender of Ukraine. Experts are confident that Europe may try to interfere in the upcoming negotiation process in order to disrupt it.

EU countries want to join the negotiations

The European Union is anxiously following the developments around the Ukrainian settlement. On November 20, the American 28-point plan was published online, and it was not coordinated with Brussels.

Photo: Global Look Press/Heinz-Dieter Falkenstein

Against this background, European countries are trying to achieve their participation in the settlement process. However, the "European voice" should be represented not by EU officials, but by specific countries, Izvestia found out.

— Europe and Ukraine should be at the negotiating table with Russia. Among the European powers, France and the United Kingdom, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, and Germany could participate in this discussion," a European diplomatic source said.

On November 19, Axios reported on the preparation of a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine by the administration of US President Donald Trump. It was about a framework package of agreements that the United States plans to coordinate with all parties by the end of November.

Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is working on the agreement. It is known that he discussed the points of the plan with the special representative of the Russian leader Kirill Dmitriev and with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov. Dmitriev previously told Axios that he had held several meetings with the Americans in Miami and "feels that the Russian position has finally been heard."

U.S. Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll meets with Ukrainian Defense Minister Denis Shmygal, Ukraine, November 19

Photo: REUTERS/Press Service of Ukrainian Defense

On November 19, high-ranking representatives of the US military wing arrived in Kiev, led by Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and a number of generals, including Army Chief of Staff General Randy George. According to Reuters and Politico, their visit is officially described as a "fact-finding mission." The US military must assess the situation at the front, the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the prospects for Kiev's support.

The delegation met with Zelensky and discussed Trump's plan with him. Following the meeting, the office of the President of Ukraine released a message stating that Zelensky had officially received a settlement plan and hoped to discuss it with Trump in the near future.

Zelensky, in his evening address to the Ukrainians, declared his readiness to work on the points of the Trump peace plan.

He said that during the meeting with Driscoll, the conversation was "about options for achieving real peace, the stages of work and formats of dialogue, as well as new impulses for diplomacy."

According to Reuters, EU countries are already trying to publicly distance themselves from the US initiative. Brussels believes that the negotiated peace agreement, which includes Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbas and partial disarmament, is tantamount to Kiev's surrender. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud, commenting on the plan, bluntly stated that "peace cannot be a surrender."

First of all, Europe can convince Zelensky to stand to his death and not sign any plan, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

— The EU can send the next tranches of money to Ukraine, and the countries of the association can promise Kiev military-technical, financial, diplomatic and other support. They may even send a contingent of troops to Lviv or promise Zelensky a no—fly zone by NATO air defense forces," he said.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers repeatedly praised the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation, which clearly indicates the risk of escalation. Following the meeting, Kallas said that not a single EU representative had worked on the US peace plan for Ukraine.

Official Washington has not yet commented on the details of the plan that have surfaced in the media. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made only one post on the social network X, writing that "achieving lasting peace will require both sides to make difficult but necessary concessions." And on November 20, White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt said that Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio had been working on a peace plan while in contact with both sides of the conflict. Representatives of the American administration "had excellent talks with both sides," she stressed.

On the same day, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, lowered general expectations. During his conversation with the press, he stressed that consultations with the United States on a peaceful settlement are currently not underway.

"There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called a consultation," the Kremlin official said.

At the same time, Russia's position has remained unchanged since the Russian-American summit in Alaska. Any peace treaty must address the root causes of the conflict, he added.

What is part of Witkoff's plan?

The document consists of four blocks — peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine.

The most difficult problem is the territorial issue. The posted part of the document says that Ukraine is withdrawing troops from the remaining areas of Donbass under its control, after which the Donetsk and Lugansk regions will completely come under de facto control of Russia and partially formalized as a demilitarized buffer zone. It is separately stated that Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk are recognized as de facto Russian, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are "frozen" along the line of contact, and both sides undertake not to try to change these borders by force.

The Telegraph adds details to this. The newspaper writes that Russia will allegedly pay Ukraine rent for Donbass.

Such an item is unlikely to be feasible, according to Oleg Barabanov, program director of the Valdai Club.

— This is contrary to the Constitution of Russia. There was nothing like this in all the Russian proposals that were publicly voiced by both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Foreign Ministry," he said.

Such a plan is absolutely not viable for either Russia or Ukraine, Bezpalko agrees. Such an agreement is milder than the previous ultimatums exchanged between the parties, but it still has no future.

According to the plan, the rest of the front line should be frozen along the current line of contact. Crimea and Donbass will be recognized as Russian territory by the United States and a number of other countries, while Ukraine will not be required to formally recognize them.

The plan also provides for military restrictions for Ukraine. Kiev should drastically reduce the size of the Armed Forces by half and abandon a number of categories of long-range systems, including the Storm Shadow and ATACMS cruise missiles.

Security guarantees are specified separately in the plan. NATO commits itself not to deploy troops on the territory of Ukraine, while the alliance's fighters remain based in Poland. At the same time, a permanent format of the US—NATO—Russia dialogue and the US-Russian security working group are being created. In exchange, Moscow legally fixes a policy of non-aggression against Ukraine and European states.

It is worth noting that this is a rather difficult point for Ukraine. Zelensky stated back in 2024 that Kiev would not reduce the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even in exchange for an invitation to NATO.

However, in this case, everything will depend on how hard the Americans will put pressure on Zelensky's team, Barabanov added. These conditions have been put forward before, but Kiev has always rejected them.

In addition, the plan includes a ban on the deployment of any foreign troops or peacekeepers on the territory of Ukraine and a reduction in arms supplies from the United States.

A separate block of the plan concerns cultural and linguistic concessions from Kiev. Ukraine should recognize Russian as one of the official languages and actually abandon its policy of ousting it from the public sphere.

At the same time, the document provides for the restoration or consolidation of a special, official status for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church associated with the Moscow Patriarchate. In other words, this is a rollback of Kiev's recent decisions to restrict its activities in the country.

It is worth noting that a significant part of the document is devoted to the economy and post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The published version of the plan calls for the formation of a large investment package — at least $100 billion from frozen Russian assets should be used to rebuild Ukraine, and about $100 billion should be added by the European Union.

The plan provides for the creation of a Fund for the Development of Ukraine, which invests in infrastructure, energy and raw materials projects and new technologies. Some of the remaining frozen Russian assets are proposed to be used for joint US-Russian projects, while in a number of retellings of the plan, the distribution of profits from these investments between the United States and its allies is separately stipulated.

Another block concerns Russia's position in the global system. The draft talks about the gradual lifting of sanctions, the return of the Russian Federation to the G8 format and the launch of long-term economic cooperation between the United States and Russia. In fact, the plan links the speed of easing restrictions to Moscow's participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine and joint investment projects.

The energy sector is also affected. The Zaporizhia NPP is scheduled to resume operation under the supervision of the IAEA, while the electricity generated by the plant is distributed between Ukraine and Russia in comparable proportions. The United States, in turn, is committed to helping restore Ukraine's gas transportation infrastructure and energy networks damaged during the conflict.

At the end of the document, the execution mechanism is described. The agreement is conceived as legally binding, and its implementation should be monitored by a special "Peace Council" chaired by Trump, which will include representatives of the parties involved. Automatic sanctions are provided for violations of the conditions, and immediately after signing, the plan assumes an immediate cease-fire and withdrawal of troops to the agreed contact lines.

Ukraine's vulnerable position

The peace plan has surfaced in recent days for a reason. Politico explicitly points out that the White House is proceeding from the difficult situation of Ukraine. Kiev is dependent on external aid, is retreating in the Donbas and is in a difficult internal political situation. This should force the authorities to accept the Russian-American version of the agreement, despite its painfulness and the EU's disagreement.

"Will the situation with the peace plan change now in the context of the corruption scandal, or on the contrary, the corruption scandal will make Zelensky even more unyielding, because then two sins will be hung on him — corruption and capitulation," Barabanov added.

Ukraine is indeed in a desperate situation. According to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), a group of "shadow managers" led by businessman Timur Mindich, who was close to Zelensky, controlled the purchases of Energoatom and systematically collected kickbacks from contractors in the amount of 10-15% of the contract amount. Money flowed away, among other things, from the construction of shelters for energy infrastructure facilities during the strikes.

Mindich managed to leave Ukraine a few hours before the start of the searches and is abroad. Seven defendants have been charged in the case. On November 19, the country's Verkhovna Rada dismissed Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk, who are involved in the investigation.

Speaking about the peace plan, Reuters describes Kiev's situation at the front as extremely difficult. Russian troops are consistently advancing in the east, including in the Donetsk region. The Russian Federation has numerical superiority in manpower and ammunition, while Kiev is experiencing an acute shortage of shells and air defense systems and is forced to switch to austerity of resources.

In addition, the fighting leads to widespread blackouts of light and heat in a number of regions and forces the authorities to introduce schedules of restrictions.

In such circumstances, the Ukrainian leadership's room for maneuver is certainly narrowing. According to media reports, this is what the United States is counting on.