To establish sales: trade between Russia and the United States may double during the year of Trump's presidency

Trade between the United States and Russia may double during the year of Donald Trump's presidency — up to $ 6-8 billion, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In the first half of 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries has already increased by almost a third, to $2.8 billion. The reason is America's active purchases of our fertilizers, enriched uranium and platinum. Nevertheless, mutual sales with Washington are still low compared to other partner countries of Russia - China and the EAEU. In addition, the situation is worsened by new American sanctions against oil companies. How the ruble exchange rate has changed and what are the risks to our economy — in the material of Izvestia.

What will happen to the trade turnover between Russia and the United States in 2025

On November 5, 2024, elections were held in the United States, after which the representative of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, returned to the White House. His inauguration took place in January. During this time, the American leader, on the one hand, has repeatedly attempted to improve relations with Russia, and on the other, has unleashed a new round of trade wars and increased pressure on the energy sector.

In general, the election of Donald Trump has given moderate optimism to Russian-American relations, says Sergey Zainullin, associate professor at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. In particular, in the first half of 2025, the trade turnover increased by more than a third, but it is still relatively small — about $2.8 billion. At the same time, most of this amount — $ 2.5 billion — is accounted for by Russian exports to America, the expert noted.

Nevertheless, experts interviewed by Izvestia expect that by the end of 2025, the volume of mutual trade will grow 1.5–2 times, to $6-8 billion. This is possible due to American purchases of domestic fertilizers, enriched uranium and platinum, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. Some of the experts suggested a more moderate assessment. According to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, the trade turnover will reach $4.8–5.6 billion. And independent expert Andrey Barkhota believes that the figure will be $6.3–6.8 billion.

Marketable: The split over Trump's trade policy is intensifying in the United States

Americans themselves are beginning to suffer from duties for other countries.

Despite the fact that economic relations between the two countries have gradually begun to improve under Trump, their trade volume remains small compared to the trade turnover between Russia and one of its main partners, China, at about $245 billion by the end of 2024, as well as with the EAEU (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) — about 9 trillion rubles (more than $100 billion).

In addition, the situation is worsened by new sanctions against our country. In particular, back in January (before Trump's inauguration), the administration of former President Joe Biden imposed large-scale restrictions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, and in October, the current American leader opposed Rosneft and Lukoil. In other words, the focus has shifted to energy exports, shipping, and secondary sanctions against participants in transactions outside the United States, Vladimir Chernov believes. This dispelled the illusion that a change of power in Washington automatically means a softening of the approach towards Russia, Igor Rastorguev noted.

For the Russian economy, these sanctions mean a higher discount on exports and an increase in transaction costs, but with sustained domestic demand and a high Central Bank rate (at the last meeting in October, it was lowered to 16.5%), explained Vladimir Chernov.

How the Trump presidency affected the ruble exchange rate

At the same time, the Russian national currency has strengthened by almost 20% over the past year. On November 2, 2024, the "American" was trading at 97.4 rubles/$. For comparison, at the beginning of November this year, its price was much lower — 80.9 per dollar at the exchange rate of the Central Bank.

One of the reasons for this hesitation was the political signals from Washington. In addition, the ruble has strengthened due to the high key interest rate (the Central Bank kept it at 21% per annum for six months), as well as due to the transition of exporters to settlements in national currencies, said Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. According to analysts interviewed by Izvestia, by the end of the year, the "American" may cost about 85-88 rubles / $.

— Dedollarization accelerated not because of Trump, but because of the inertia of 2022-2024. The share of "toxic" currencies in export and import calculations has been updating lows, and the role of the yuan and ruble has been growing," said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.

In addition, the stock market has undergone some changes. Despite the fact that by November the Moscow Exchange index had dropped by 2% to 2,571 points, it reacted to important political statements from America. For example, after a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on October 17, the market grew by almost 7% (to 2,716 points), and after sanctions against Russian energy companies on October 23, it sank by almost 2.5% (to 2,548 points).

Destinations: the Moscow Exchange index may rise to 2,750 points by the end of the year

Why analysts expect the benchmark to rise after a record decline in 10 months

How the global economy will change due to the new US policy

The American foreign economic policy of trade wars and sanctions negatively affects Russia's activities, Svetlana Frumina, Acting Head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, is convinced. She explained that the growth of barriers and the expansion of export controls are changing the structure of trade flows and creating less favorable conditions for supplies from our country.

Such processes lead to limited access of Russian companies to modern technologies, increase costs and increase financial risks, the specialist added.

In addition, by imposing a base duty of 10% and additional tariffs of up to 49% for individual countries, Washington has destabilized global supply chains, Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets explained. According to him, this creates risks for Russian exports of raw materials, especially metals and energy resources, the demand for which may fall due to a slowdown in the global economy.

However, US protectionism is pushing countries to look for alternative partners and settlement mechanisms. In particular, Russia and China have already switched to paying in yuan and rubles by 99%, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on November 4.

According to Igor Rastorguev, instead of unified global rules, regional blocs with their own currencies and settlement mechanisms are now being formed. For Russia, this means both challenges related to falling global demand and opportunities to deepen ties with non-Western partners.