Destinations: the Moscow Exchange index may rise to 2,750 points by the end of the year

The Moscow Exchange index may rise to 2,750 points by the end of the year, with possible fluctuations, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. This week, for the first time since December 2024, it sank below 2,500 points due to new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil and the slowdown in the negotiation process. Nevertheless, analysts expect the results of Russian companies to improve by the end of the year and are optimistic about the stock market situation. What can trigger the recovery of the stock market and change the behavior of investors is in the Izvestia article.

Why is the IMOEX2 index falling?

Experts expect that in the coming months the Moscow Exchange index will fluctuate in the range of 2550-3000 points. At the same time, short-term declines of up to 2,370 points are possible against the background of market volatility and changes in foreign policy. But on average, by the end of the year, the indicator is capable of reaching 2,750 points, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast.

The IMOEX2 index dropped below 2,500 points on the morning of October 27 for the first time in 10 months, starting on December 20, 2024. By the end of the day, it was also below this psychologically important mark.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

The Russian stock market has been under pressure for more than a month, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. The decline in the Moscow Exchange index began in the second decade of September against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical background. During the week from October 18 to October 24, he lost 6.5%, the expert said. However, the downward trend began in mid-August, meaning it has been going on for more than three months, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

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The situation worsened when on October 22, the United States imposed a series of blocking sanctions against Rosneft, Lukoil and 34 of their subsidiaries, which together provide up to half of Russian oil, Igor Rastorguev said. This step has put pressure on oil and gas companies, which account for a significant share of the Moscow Exchange index. Nevertheless, the Russian economy has already developed a certain immunity to sanctions pressure, so the restrictions will not become critical, the analyst added.

There are also risks from the Central Bank's policy — rising inflation may lead to a longer period of maintaining a high key rate, said Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Cifra Broker. If in July the regulator predicted its range for 2026 at the level of 12-13%, now it has increased it to 13-15%, also allowing for a scenario of tightening policy, added financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

The strengthening of the national currency is also dragging the index down, which is squeezing the ruble earnings of exporters, Vladimir Chernov noted. In October, the dollar fell to 78-79 rubles, which increased pressure on oil and gas and metallurgy, he recalled. A strong ruble, on the one hand, reduces the attractiveness of export companies, on the other hand, it restrains inflation and strengthens the purchasing power of citizens, which is important for domestic demand, Igor Rastorguev emphasized.

The decline in the index was also caused by geopolitical news, in particular, about the postponement of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Budapest for an indefinite period and a temporary pause in the negotiation process, Ivan Efanov added.

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What will be the index of the Moscow Stock Exchange by the end of the year

By the end of the year, the index will move in the range of 2550-2750 points, predicted Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. An additional growth catalyst may be adaptation to sanctions pressure or a more active easing of the Central Bank's policy if inflationary risks do not materialize. Today, the fundamental indicators of the companies remain strong, and this is the main component for the market's recovery growth in the medium term, he noted.

The maximum in the last two months of the year is still seen at 2,730 points, said Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global. According to the analyst, the growth may be triggered by hydrocarbon supply deals to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which will diversify demand and reduce dependence on narrow routes and discounts.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Alexey Ramm

The target level for the Moscow Exchange index is 3,000 points, noted Ivan Efanov from Digit Broker. He called the growth drivers the trajectory of easing the Bank of Russia's PREP by the end of the year and possible progress on the negotiating track.

Alexey Rodin from Rodin has a less positive outlook.Capital. According to his estimates, the Moscow Exchange index may reach the level of about 2500-2600 points by the end of the year. At the same time, if news of new sanctions appears, it will again be reduced to 2,450.

Any positive news about geopolitics can provoke a rapid recovery of the stock market, as it has happened more than once, said Natalia Malykh, head of the Stock analysis department at Finam. In addition, the weakening of the ruble may support stocks in the commodity export sector. According to her forecasts, the Moscow Exchange index may reach 3,000 points by the end of the year, but in the near future possible minimum values will be 2,400 and even 2,370 points.