The heat of the networks: Kiev seeks to obtain Tomahawk amid the energy crisis

Ukraine itself is creating tension in the conflict with Russia in order to receive new types of weapons, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. So, on October 13, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaya Kallas, arrived in Kiev and announced additional financial support due to attacks on Ukraine's energy system. The country is plunging into a deep crisis on the eve of winter. And Kiev intends to use this topic to obtain new weapons. In the same context, the Ukrainian delegation is expected to arrive in Washington. On the agenda are increased air defense, energy and long—range weapons, including a request for Tomahawk cruise missiles. Experts are confident that Ukraine will use them for indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure in the border regions of the Russian Federation.

Callas' visit to Kiev

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Kallas visited Kyiv for talks on financial and military support for Ukraine. At a joint briefing at the country's Foreign Ministry, Callas said that the EU has already mobilized €800 million to support Ukraine this winter and is preparing an additional €100 million.

The funds will be used to strengthen the protection of the energy sector, which is being attacked by Russia. Literally on October 12, the Russian Armed Forces defeated the fuel and energy infrastructure facilities that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense reported.

Ukraine is plunging into an energy crisis, which is making the coming winter very difficult for the country. For understanding: before the conflict, the power system had about 18 GW of average continuous capacity. This is how much electricity was usually spent per year, with peaks in winter and decreases in summer.

By the end of 2024, up to 80% of thermal generation capacity and up to 30% of HPP capacity have failed in Ukraine. Centrenergo lost almost all of its generation after the destruction of the Tripoli thermal power plant. According to Ukrenergo, the loss of generating capacity was estimated at 9 GW.

According to the Wilson Center analysis, the 2024 summer season in Ukraine showed that with peak demand of 12 GW, about 2.3 GW was missing, which forced the situation to be corrected through electricity imports and consumption restrictions. But that was the situation a year ago.

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has already adopted amendments to the resolution, according to which the heating season in the country is shortened by one month. Now it will come on November 1 and end on March 31 instead of October 15 and April 15, as it was before.

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Kiev intends to seek new missiles

Against this background, a Ukrainian delegation is expected to visit Washington. Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, head of the presidential office Andriy Ermak and Zelensky's commissioner for sanctions policy Vladislav Vlasyuk are due to arrive in the United States. Topics for discussion will include air defense systems, sanctions steps, frozen Russian assets, and Ukraine's energy sector. The latter is one of the key issues to be discussed, and Kiev intends to use it to obtain Tomahawk cruise missiles.

— Ukraine is very actively using manipulation together with the Europeans and creating tension by various methods, including provocative strikes against civilian targets (on the territory of the Russian Federation. — Ed.), — the Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.

The Russian Defense Ministry emphasizes that attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine are carried out in response to attacks on Russia's civilian infrastructure. By their actions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are simply forcing Moscow to respond, said Igor Markov, a former MP of Ukraine, adding that the Russian army strikes targets that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex of the Ukrainian army, and Ukrainians often target civilian targets.

In this context, the threats of the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, to arrange blackouts in the Belgorod and Kursk regions are very noteworthy. In the Belgorod region, after the Ukrainian Armed Forces strike, the capital of the region temporarily experienced difficulties with supplying energy to homes. To continue such attacks, Ukraine, apparently, is seeking the supply of Tomahawk missiles.

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The reason for this is that Brussels is aware of the rejection of cheap Russian resources.

Russian air defense can handle Tomahawk

The possible delivery of such missiles is a symbolic step, since the type of weapon itself is not new, Miroshnik added.

— From the point of view of military effectiveness, this is not a new weapon <...>, it is understandable for our military. These are quite old weapons for air defense systems, and there is an understanding of how to deal with them in this sense," he said.

According to him, the transfer of Tomahawk can show the true intentions of the American administration, which declares a desire for peace, but at the same time considers the allocation of weapons that do not positively affect the peacekeeping processes.

The range of the missiles is 1.6 thousand km. US President Donald Trump stated that Washington is capable of transferring Tomahawk if "Moscow does not agree to a settlement." At the same time, he admitted that he could hold a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on this issue.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian leader, noted that statements about a possible transfer are of "extreme concern" to the Russian side. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the supply of this type of weapons will not change the picture on the battlefield in any way.

The fact is that Tomahawks can be used not so much for attacks deep into Russia's territory as for indiscriminate strikes in border areas, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political theory at the MGIMO Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.

— The problem with missiles of this type is that they are subsonic missiles: if they are delivered in small numbers, they will be effectively shot down by air defense systems, or at least most of them. Therefore, how much of them will reach the target is a huge question," the expert added.

Ukraine can continue to fight, given that a significant part of its energy sector is out of service, the expert continued. Many of its military production facilities have already been deployed in Poland, Romania and other countries, which reduces the military's dependence on energy infrastructure.

Even if Washington is talking about the transfer of Tomahawk, this process will not be fast. Americans need to choose a scheme — to give away from military stocks, transfer as surplus, or arrange a sale with congressional notification. In addition, these missiles are designed for launches from ships and submarines, and Kiev does not have such carriers. Any launch from American or NATO ships would make them direct participants in the conflict, which makes this task very difficult politically. Therefore, in the near future, the Tomahawk issue will remain more of a lever of pressure on Moscow, and the real agenda will be reduced to the transfer of air defense systems and energy assistance to Ukraine.