Point and value: the key this year will be reduced to only 16%
The key rate may be reduced by only 1 percentage point this year, to 16%, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. Experts are confident that at the next meeting in October, the regulator will take a break and maintain its previous policy. The pessimism of the market is explained by the still high inflation and the active growth of business loans — for the Central Bank this is an important factor in decision-making. Nevertheless, the situation may change in 2026 - it is possible that the rate will be lowered to 12-13%. How the Central Bank's policy will change is in the Izvestia article.
Will the key rate be lowered again this year
The key rate will decrease by 1 percentage point by the end of the year, to the level of 16% — this forecast was given to Izvestia by seven out of nine experts surveyed. At the same time, some admit that even following the results of the last meeting of the regulator this year, the Central Bank's policy will remain unchanged.
The probability of a reduction in the Central Bank's rate depends on economic indicators such as inflation and energy prices, which are currently rising, said Dmitry Tselishchev, Managing director of Rikom—Trust. In the week to October 6, gasoline prices in Russia increased by 0.9%, a week earlier — by 0.8%, and before that — by 0.6%. Since the beginning of the year, retail fuel prices have increased by more than 10%, said Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingo Bank.
A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate by the end of the year is rather an optimistic forecast, which is possible if inflationary pressure persists, independent expert Andrey Barkhota noted. Rising fuel prices are hindering a reduction in inflation, despite the high rate. Currently, data on GDP, economic activity and company profits indicate the need for careful policy easing in December, added Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital.
The Central Bank may well lower the rate to 16%, but much will depend on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, said Sergey Zaversky, head of the Analytical research Department at the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. Today, the strengthening of the national currency is a factor in favor of slowing inflation, because because of this, imported goods and raw materials are becoming cheaper in ruble terms.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, also noted the space for lowering the key rate on the sidelines of Finopolis. She clarified that forecasts for its trajectory for the next year will be clarified at the next meeting, which will be held on October 24.
Nevertheless, all the experts interviewed by Izvestia expect the Central Bank to take a break at this meeting. There will be room for a reduction in the key rate only on December 19, said Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency.
So far, there is no reason for the rate to decrease, experts say. Lending at the end of September, although it has stabilized slightly, is still moving along the upper limit of the Central Bank's forecast, Ilya Fedorov recalled. In addition, the pace of business loans is actively growing, and for the Central Bank this is an extremely negative factor in making decisions on the key issue.
What will happen to the key rate in 2026
Experts see a reduction in the key rate to 12-13% next year as realistic. This may be explained by the fact that in the first half of 2026, the Russian economy will go through a period of slowdown, after which balanced growth will begin, Andrei Barkhota noted. Additional support may be provided by the easing of sanctions pressure and an increase in import volumes, which will become more affordable due to the strengthening of the ruble and the establishment of logistics.
Pro-inflationary risks are expected to be mostly contained by the second quarter, noted Alexander Bakhtin from Garda Capital. By this time, their impact on the economy and prices should decrease significantly.
The level included in the basic scenario of the Ministry of Finance is quite realistic, but the main rate reduction will be in the second half of 2026, Anton Tabakh noted. After the next policy adjustment, the regulator will definitely take a break until March or April.
The 12-13% budgeted represents the average value of the Central Bank's July forecast used in budget formation. According to him, the rate will decrease more slowly and will reach a level of about 12% by the end of next year, said Ilya Fedorov from BCS.
How the Central Bank's harsh policy affects the economy
Under the harsh scenario of the PREP implementation, the segment of small and medium-sized businesses remains the most vulnerable category, said Dmitry Tselishchev from Rikom-Trust. It is becoming increasingly difficult for companies to service their current debt burden, and there is virtually no opportunity to invest in development.
Investor sentiment has changed primarily because of the draft budget - its parameters indicate that fighting inflation is now becoming an economic policy priority, said Sergey Zaversky from the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies.
— Even a decrease in the volume of investments in fixed assets in real terms is not considered a greater threat to the economy than inflation is above the Bank of Russia's target. At the same time, a long period of not just rigid, but super—rigid PREP jeopardizes the achievement of the goals of even the Central Bank itself, so the rate will have to be lowered soon," he concluded.
Meanwhile, a long-term strict PREP will suppress economic growth and demand, but will allow people with large savings to earn on high rates on deposits and bonds, added Anton Tabakh from Expert RA.
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