Minus the virus: the incidence of SARS decreased due to the warm autumn
At least 23 Russian regions have seen a decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI), Izvestia estimates. Traditionally, the increase in colds begins in September, experts recalled. But this year, the predicted rise in infections has shifted due to the warm weather in early autumn. About when the spread of SARS is expected to increase, see the Izvestia article.
Where the incidence has decreased
From September 29 to October 5, the incidence rate of acute respiratory viral infections was below the weekly epidemic threshold by 15%, according to the latest data from the Smorodintsev Influenza Research Institute. They also noted that last week the epidemic thresholds for the total incidence of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections throughout the population were not exceeded by 20% in any of the 61 cities that this organization is investigating.
Last week, there was a decline in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections in more than 20 Russian regions, Izvestia found out after analyzing data from the regional departments of Rospotrebnadzor.
This trend is noted, for example, in the Kemerovo region. Last week, 13 thousand cases of acute respiratory viral infections were registered there, which is 21% lower than the previous week. In the Orenburg region, the incidence rate of acute respiratory viral infections decreased by 17.7% last week.
"The number of cases decreased in all age groups, the most pronounced in the group of 7-14 years — by 26.1% and 15 years and older — by 16.7%," the website of the Department of Rospotrebnadzor for the region says.
In the Kostroma region, from September 29 to October 5, 3.6 thousand people with symptoms of acute respiratory viral infections sought medical help, of which 2 thousand were children under the age of 14. The indicator was 15% lower than the previous week and 16% lower than the same period in 2024.
Last week, 13.4 thousand cases of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections were registered in Tatarstan. The incidence is below the level of the previous week by 13.1%.
"Among the circulating respiratory viruses, viruses of non-influenza etiology predominate. The number of cases is lower than the previous week in all age groups," the regional department of Rospotrebnadzor noted.
Last week, a 10.9% decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections was registered in the Vladimir region. In the period from September 29 to October 5, 10.2 thousand people applied for help in medical institutions with signs of acute respiratory viral infections, 2.7 thousand in Vladimir. According to the local department of Rospotrebnadzor, compared with the previous week, a decrease in morbidity was registered in all age groups, except for children.
A similar indicator is in the Penza region.: there, compared to the previous week, the incidence fell by 10.1%. And in Penza, by 28.7%.
According to Rospotrebnadzor, a decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections has been observed in the country for the second week in a row.
"Last week, a decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections among the population was recorded by 10.2%. The number of cases decreased in all age groups, the most pronounced in the age group of 7-14 years," they said.
At the same time, there are regions where an increase in morbidity is recorded. These include, for example, the Arkhangelsk and Oryol regions. So, in the Arkhangelsk region last week, more than 9.7 thousand cases of acute respiratory viral infections were registered, which is 11.4% higher than the epidemic threshold. And in the Orel region — by 3.9%.
When is the expected rise in the spread of SARS
The current decrease in the incidence of respiratory infections may be due to the active vaccination campaign and the warm weather in September in many Russian regions, says Olga Ulankina, a doctor at the Hemotest laboratory.
"But viruses and bacteria will become active as soon as the air temperature drops, and it will become windy and damp outside," she stressed.
The expert also recalled that the incidence rates were record high at the beginning of the school year, and suggested that this led to increased prevention measures, which led to a decrease in cases of SARS infection.
The decline will continue until about the end of October and the beginning of November, says Roman Merkulov, an epidemiologist at the UNI Clinic medical center. But Andrey Pozdnyakov, an infectious disease specialist at Invitro, believes that the increase in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections will begin in the coming days.
"As soon as the temperature reaches 5 °C and then drops below, respiratory diseases will begin to increase," he said.
Tatiana Pozdnyakova, chief specialist of the Moscow Meteorological Bureau, told Izvestia that a noticeable cold snap is expected early next week.
— Starting from Monday, the air temperature will be below the climatic norm and will only drop every day. The weather will be rainy," the expert said.
In the regions of Siberia and the Far East, significant cooling is expected in the near future during the night hours, added Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center.
— The temperature in Siberia will be 6-8 degrees below normal. It will get especially colder, for example, in Novosibirsk, Kemerovo, Omsk, Tomsk regions, Altai Territory and Khakassia. Overnight frosts of up to -23 °C and below are expected in the Far East and Yakutia. In Transbaikalia, the temperature will remain at -14...-21 °C until the end of the week, in Buryatia -14...-18 °C, and in the northern part of the Khabarovsk Territory it will drop to -10...-13 °C," he noted.
The main peak in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections traditionally occurs in the winter months, Maxim Korshunov, an immunologist at the Alexandrovsky Medical Center, reminded Izvestia. In his opinion, the incidence will begin to rise after the January holidays.
Epidemiologist Gennady Onishchenko agreed with him, who believes that the increase in the incidence will begin in October and November, when it gets colder.
The peak of the spread of SARS will be in the first half of December, Roman Merkulov believes.
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